What I Over Heard About Next DVC

[cmwade77]

The rumors I've heard are .....
1) The already announced Riviera Resort at Caribbean Beach Resort.
2) A 15 story high rise at the Coronado Springs Resort.
3) A 2nd Tower for Bay Lake (opposite side of Contemporary)
4) The River County Resort at the Wilderness Campgrounds
5) The new hotel at DisneyLand in California (700 room hotel)....some rooms may be DVC. (let's hope)

That's all I've heard...these are just rumors though, aside from the Riviera Resort.

There is now number 6 that given the permits for the demolition of Carousel Inn have officially been filed is actually highly likely.....the area at Disneyland that was going to be used for the Eastern Gateway will now be used for a DVC resort. The alternative theories for the area are:

• Disney will use the area to build a new Downtown Disney, then demolish was is left of the current Downtown Disney to reclaim it for theme park expansion.
• Disney will continue to buy the land surrounding the area and build a third theme park there. The problem with this theory is most of the properties have all banded together and agreed to refuse to sell to Disney at any price.

Personally, I think as Disneyland continues to push towards trying to get the parks back to being more tourists than locals (which really isn't going to happen and we all know it, but current management is going to pull out all the stops to try), they are going to need a DVC only resort.

As for number 5, it has been all but confirmed that one of the towers of the new Disneyland hotel will be DVC.

 

[cmwade77]

I never understood why they built at Vero instead of near Port Canaveral. I could see them building closer to the Port to entice cruise guests. As for Texas, I could see Galveston being a possibility if DCL continues to cruise out of there. As for the Northeast, NYC would be a place with year-round appeal and occasional tie-ins with DCL. If I were Disney, I would build in places that already had a stream of existing disney customers.

If Epcot and HS will be the biggest draws in the coming years and the boardwalk area is the hardest to book, DVC should build more in that area to capitalize on that. I know that the Riviera is supposed to do that, but IMO there's no substitute for walkability to a park no matter now nice the mode of transportation.

From what I understand Disney isn't planning on continuing cruising out of Galveston long term, ultimately San Diego will become a more permanent port and I could definitely see Disney building a resort in San Diego, possibly near the cruise terminal to capitalize on that.

 

[DenLo]

I really don't think Disney nor DVC will build any resorts away from the parks as they have taken too long to close out and the sales prices were lower than expected. Also they halved the size of Vero Beach because of lack of interest.

As to Galveston, DCL does not have a permanent berth there for regular weekly cruises. Their dates are limited because the other cruise lines, Royal Caribbean and Carnival have most dates booked. There is room for only two ships at Galveston as the port only maintains two terminals and two 2,000 foot berths. Plus parking is very limited.

And most of the cruise lines have given up on the Houston Cruise Terminal because using the ship channel means many dates where you cannot get in or out because the weather closed the ship channel. Cruise ships are tall and the crosswinds on the channel can move a cruise ship into the other lane of ships moving the other direction. It is a very narrow ship channel. And when stuck in port the cruise lines have to pay taxes on liquor and use only certain liquors purchased by a Texas distributor. Princess was not happy with those limits especially since ships got stuck in port over night multiple times each season. The guests were not happy either and were getting surly at the limited drinks menu.

 

[cmwade77]

As I said, I could see San Diego for a DVC resort, especially with the newly expanded cruise terminal and that would actually sell quite well. I could even see Disney buying Hotel Del Coronado and converting it, this would lower costs, it is a beautiful resort already and is in the perfect location. Disney could even provide transportation to the cruise terminal via ferry or by bus.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

As for number 5, it has been all but confirmed that one of the towers of the new Disneyland hotel will be DVC.

I've said this before, but I'll say it again: Don't put a lot of stock in that unless there are public filings. The Disneyland Area Zoning Plan is such that Disney cannot put timeshare units in via a stealth mode. To develop a new timeshare ownership resort or portion, lots of things have to be filed. To develop units as timeshare, the builder has to file typical floor plans for each unit, a construction phasing plan, management stuff, some general boilerplate stuff about the timeshare operation, a parking study, and how they plan to collect the transient occupancy tax. It's pretty substantive.

The new build is using a special tax incentive, which complicates things in terms of filings and approvals. b has to have permission from the city to do DVC units, and the city may not want to bless what amounts to a double-dip (reduction of the transient tax + phat point sales profits).

If anything, Disney might apply for the Conditional Use Permits to repurpose part of Paradise Pier or the Disneyland Hotel, but, again, it would be subject to approval by Anaheim. Similarly, an application to build a DVC-only resort would be subject to the zoning code (not just Disney's property, but everything within certain geographic borders). Per 18.114.050 of Anaheim zoning code, up to 150 units total can be timeshare/vacation ownership units. There are currently 71. So it would either be a really small development (and maybe hard to get blessing to build, since the area plan seeks out a certain level of density), or need to get blessing to be bigger.

 

[mentos]

As I said, I could see San Diego for a DVC resort, especially with the newly expanded cruise terminal and that would actually sell quite well. I could even see Disney buying Hotel Del Coronado and converting it, this would lower costs, it is a beautiful resort already and is in the perfect location. Disney could even provide transportation to the cruise terminal via ferry or by bus.

I probably wouldn't buy a DVC resort in San Diego (direct or resale), or even use my points at one, either. There are so many good options already (between the existing hotels, airbnb/VRBO, etc...), unless DVD really builds something super special/unique down there (along the liens of an Aulani or something).

Hotel Del being purchased by DVD and converted to a DVC property?? Blasphemy! Plus Hilton just took over managing it, and Blackstone appears to be okay keeping it (despite trying to offload it to a Chinese company and the deal getting scuttled due to national security concerns).

 

[mentos]

I've said this before, but I'll say it again: Don't put a lot of stock in that unless there are public filings. The Disneyland Area Zoning Plan is such that Disney cannot put timeshare units in via a stealth mode. To develop a new timeshare ownership resort or portion, lots of things have to be filed. To develop units as timeshare, the builder has to file typical floor plans for each unit, a construction phasing plan, management stuff, some general boilerplate stuff about the timeshare operation, a parking study, and how they plan to collect the transient occupancy tax. It's pretty substantive.

The new build is using a special tax incentive, which complicates things in terms of filings and approvals. b has to have permission from the city to do DVC units, and the city may not want to bless what amounts to a double-dip (reduction of the transient tax + phat point sales profits).

If anything, Disney might apply for the Conditional Use Permits to repurpose part of Paradise Pier or the Disneyland Hotel, but, again, it would be subject to approval by Anaheim. Similarly, an application to build a DVC-only resort would be subject to the zoning code (not just Disney's property, but everything within certain geographic borders). Per 18.114.050 of Anaheim zoning code, up to 150 units total can be timeshare/vacation ownership units. There are currently 71. So it would either be a really small development (and maybe hard to get blessing to build, since the area plan seeks out a certain level of density), or need to get blessing to be bigger.

I've been looking at filings and I've seen nothing, which is kind of disappointing. VGC contracts are > $200 pp on the resale market (if you can even find one), which is great for me if I ever try to sell, but that kind of indicates the pent up demand for DVC around the DL resort.

My far future prediction is once the Eastern Gateway is done and enough legacy owners have sold their Harbor Blvd. properties to Disney over the next 50-100 years, you'll see a DVC property built along Harbor (once the zoning issue is amended).

 

[Dean]

I probably wouldn't buy a DVC resort in San Diego (direct or resale), or even use my points at one, either. There are so many good options already (between the existing hotels, airbnb/VRBO, etc...), unless DVD really builds something super special/unique down there (along the liens of an Aulani or something).

Hotel Del being purchased by DVD and converted to a DVC property?? Blasphemy! Plus Hilton just took over managing it, and Blackstone appears to be okay keeping it (despite trying to offload it to a Chinese company and the deal getting scuttled due to national security concerns).

It doesn't matter a given person's preference but it does matter what the cumulative usage is. SD is a great option for a vacation club/timeshare system in the right situation but it's not main stream as far as timeshares go. To support a resort like SD, one really has to have a sufficient volume of non park oriented members. I think Disney is too tied to the parks and too unwilling to get in the fight from a timeshare sales standpoint to make a non Park oriented grouping difficult at best. HI is different if they can get to 3 good resorts/locations on 3 islands. But that's going to mean spending the money to buy an existing project and either adding to it or razing it to start from scratch.

 

[mentos]

It doesn't matter a given person's preference but it does matter what the cumulative usage is. SD is a great option for a vacation club/timeshare system in the right situation but it's not main stream as far as timeshares go. To support a resort like SD, one really has to have a sufficient volume of non park oriented members. I think Disney is too tied to the parks and too unwilling to get in the fight from a timeshare sales standpoint to make a non Park oriented grouping difficult at best. HI is different if they can get to 3 good resorts/locations on 3 islands. But that's going to mean spending the money to buy an existing project and either adding to it or razing it to start from scratch.

Fair point, and that's what I think my bias is, DVC is for parks (or an immersive disney-esque experience), and any attempt to go outside of that area of success puts DVD at a disadvantage. It's like Southwest Airlines challenging legacy airlines. For example, I view their expansion into the Hawaii market with a wary eye.

 

[Dean]

Fair point, and that's what I think my bias is, DVC is for parks (or an immersive disney-esque experience), and any attempt to go outside of that area of success puts DVD at a disadvantage. It's like Southwest Airlines challenging legacy airlines. For example, I view their expansion into the Hawaii market with a wary eye.

Could they do it, sure, but they'll have to go in for several properties over a fairly short period to time for locations like Myrtle Beach, Naples/Ft. Myers, Key West, Aruba, other HI island, SFC, Ski area and the like. Secondary markets like Branson, Gatlinburg, Williamsburg and LV would be good for a larger system but not as a starting point. But the problem is as I mentioned, they have a habit of trying to go in cheap (comparatively speaking) and assuming people will flock to them. That isn't going to be successful for such an expansion IMO. They're got to adopt a more usual timeshare based sales model which can be done professionally as Hyatt, Hilton and Marriott have proven. I know some are convinced that DVD was counting heavily on the Japanese market but personally I don't think they were putting as much stock there as some do. I think they were simply thinking "it's HI, we're Disney, if we build it our loyal fans will buy it", just like they did VB and HH. The beauty of HI is that it can be a somewhat stand alone project if they'd expand it. For most in the US HI is not a 1 week trip reasonably and Oahu is not the go to island long term for most HI fans. In a sense Ko Olina was like VB and HH, a project the developers hoped would take off. Fortunately it was more successful than the Turtle Bay Hilton Project with some of the same thinking.

Obviously to do 5 or 6 high demand properties in succession is going to take a major dollar and effort commitment but if they could develop a good Maui option and possibly a Kauai one (or even Lanaii or the BI) to get to 2 or 3. I think Maui is a must if they expand HI AND if they put more effort into sales for those traveling there already, there are possibilities. A combo at Tahoe and LV is intriguing and not that far from DL at about 4 hrs. The Palm Springs area is not that far off as well. Too bad they didn't carry through with the Newport Coast Project, they could have leveraged DL to sell it.

 

[mentos]

Too bad they didn't carry through with the Newport Coast Project, they could have leveraged DL to sell it.

I lived down the street from that Newport Coast property (Marriott, I think), and would drive by it on my way to my sailing class (with my German professor partner, hah). To think, that could have been the start of what you stated. I completely forgot about it until you reminded me, so I take that back, a San Diego property would be way more than feasible (I still wouldn't buy, hah).

 

[Ben E N]

Fair point, and that's what I think my bias is, DVC is for parks (or an immersive disney-esque experience), and any attempt to go outside of that area of success puts DVD at a disadvantage. It's like Southwest Airlines challenging legacy airlines. For example, I view their expansion into the Hawaii market with a wary eye.

I completely agreed there until the Southwest comparison. The weight around Disney's neck is that whatever you buy from them, whether it be a shirt with Minnie's face on it at Target, tickets to their parks, or a room at their hotels, it's going to cost you more. They are even trying to charge movie theaters more to play their movies. It is easy to justify when you have to have a cute shirt or stay close to Disney World, but harder when you are just hanging out on the beach.
Southwest is just competing with other airlines who are offering similar services. They don't need to present themselves as being any more premium than other carriers, so as long as they get logistics down, I see no reason why they wouldn't be successful.

 

[mentos]

I completely agreed there until the Southwest comparison. The weight around Disney's neck is that whatever you buy from them, whether it be a shirt with Minnie's face on it at Target, tickets to their parks, or a room at their hotels, it's going to cost you more. They are even trying to charge movie theaters more to play their movies. It is easy to justify when you have to have a cute shirt or stay close to Disney World, but harder when you are just hanging out on the beach.
Southwest is just competing with other airlines who are offering similar services. They don't need to present themselves as being any more premium than other carriers, so as long as they get logistics down, I see no reason why they wouldn't be successful.

It's not that Southwest won't be commercially successful (they will, I love flying them, and they have a lot of goodwill nationally), it's that they have a bit of a chip to overcome in handling those logistics. They don't fly over oceans, they don't fly to tropical islands...those are real experience issues that, as an airline, I want to see worked through first (i.e. I'm not gonna be on that first flight to HNL).

It's like if DVD expands as discussed above....it's not that would fail, it's just the other big time share programs are so established, I would also be wary and wouldn't dive in unless a) it was a single property I *really* like or b) it achieved the kind of critical mass that makes it viable.

 

[Dean]

It's not that Southwest won't be commercially successful (they will, I love flying them, and they have a lot of goodwill nationally), it's that they have a bit of a chip to overcome in handling those logistics. They don't fly over oceans, they don't fly to tropical islands...those are real experience issues that, as an airline, I want to see worked through first (i.e. I'm not gonna be on that first flight to HNL).

It's like if DVD expands as discussed above....it's not that would fail, it's just the other big time share programs are so established, I would also be wary and wouldn't dive in unless a) it was a single property I *really* like or b) it achieved the kind of critical mass that makes it viable.

IMO the 2 announced but abandoned properties had a lot of promise (NC & Eagle Pines). The unannounced projects that were abandoned, NYC & CO Ski area, would have been good additions as well. There was also a pretty decent rumor for HI at that time though I don't know the location.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I've been looking at filings and I've seen nothing, which is kind of disappointing. VGC contracts are > $200 pp on the resale market (if you can even find one), which is great for me if I ever try to sell, but that kind of indicates the pent up demand for DVC around the DL resort.

My far future prediction is once the Eastern Gateway is done and enough legacy owners have sold their Harbor Blvd. properties to Disney over the next 50-100 years, you'll see a DVC property built along Harbor (once the zoning issue is amended).

One thing I did find, but haven't gone deep enough to figure out what happened, is there was a proposed amendment to remove the 150-unit cap, although all of the filing requirements would still be in play for plan approval (especially for conversion). It didn't pass, as the 150 is still in the code and there's no amended total in code. Zoning code does say, explicitly, that they do view timeshare as roughly equivalent to hotel space for the purposes of the unit goal totals for hotel space and conference space.

 

[DenLo]

One thing I did find, but haven't gone deep enough to figure out what happened, is there was a proposed amendment to remove the 150-unit cap, although all of the filing requirements would still be in play for plan approval (especially for conversion). It didn't pass, as the 150 is still in the code and there's no amended total in code. Zoning code does say, explicitly, that they do view timeshare as roughly equivalent to hotel space for the purposes of the unit goal totals for hotel space and conference space.

Don't they only have 48 units at VGC? Another 100 would be nice.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Don't they only have 48 units at VGC? Another 100 would be nice.

They have 23 dedicated two bedroom units, 23 lockoffs (so 46 units) and 2 GV. So 71 units all together.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Anaheim documents say 71.

 

[square pond]

I wish they would stop changing everything. They want to cram more and more people in.

AGREED! We fell in love with Disney on our honeymoon in 1990. It captured our heart and felt magical..like somehow it was there just for you. Characters walked the parks freely and all tickets were non expiring hoppers...dont get me wrong we still LOVE Disney but Disney keeps making it harder and harder for the average working family to be a part of the magic.

 

[DougEMG]

You would think by now that Disney would have learned that they can't compete in the timeshare world without their parks to tie into. I only bought DVC to be able to stay onsite and i bet the majority of other owners did as well. I can certainly get nicer/cheaper accommodation outside of Disney, so why pay that premium if there isn't a park tie in.