What does 60% chance of rain really mean?

[remark44]

I know it rains in FL everyday in the afternoon. On one of the days I am thinking about going to a waterpark the weather forcast says 60% chance of rain. Do you think I have a chance of getting in the park in the morning?

I know you cannot predict the future, just looking for some past experiences.

TIA for any insight.

 

[mrstomrice]

Based on my experience, the storms come late in the day when they do come. We were there from Aug 8-18 and had only 3 rain events total in the day time. Twice it rained around 4 pm and once it was around 10 pm. Many times the sky looked terrible but it never rained where we were. Keep your eye on the weather channel. Hope this helps!

 

[archimedes76]

We live in Florida and 60% rain means nothing. It might rain it might not, it could rain to the left but not to the right. Either way, if it does rain it won't last. We don't really think of a rainy day until we see 80-90% chance and even then sometimes it questionable. The biggest mistake people make is ponchos. Once the sun hits any of the rainwater on the ground the ponchos turn into a personal sauna. Just take a small pocket umbrella. If it happens to rain, its only going to last for 30 minutes at most with a 60% chance of rain.

 

[WeLoveLilo05]

I know it rains in FL everyday in the afternoon. On one of the days I am thinking about going to a waterpark the weather forcast says 60% chance of rain. Do you think I have a chance of getting in the park in the morning?

I know you cannot predict the future, just looking for some past experiences.

TIA for any insight.

Hello fellow New Jerseyian

I *think* it means 60% of the Orlando area will get rain?
I had this problem too for our May trip and I think that is what other posters told me.
I was also told by Disney CMs that rain in Orlando is not like rain in NJ (haha, b/c when we went in May we got flukey downpours for 4 days straight) the CMs told me that it usually only rains for a few hours a day IF it rains in FL. Unlike here in NJ where it may rain all day. When we got that rain the CMs kept saying "Oh so your from NJ, well you must be used to this then huh?"

 

[MK032197]

I have heard on the weather on our local station that 60% chance of rain means there is a 6 in 10 chance of rain. It doesn't mean it will rain all day this could be a 30 minute shower.

 

[MissMichelle]

I wouldn't be too concerned as other posters mentioned....I just checked the hour by hour forecast for tomorrow and they predict pockets of rain randomly trough the day, which just cools things off. Head into a ride or show and when you come out the sun will be shining again. If you are at the water park it'll still be warm out and you get wet anyway so HAVE FUN!!!

 

[fla4fun]

A 60% chance of rain means that 60% of the Central Florida area will receive measurable rainfall that day. It could be a very small amount, in the hundredths of an inch, or it could be a large amount, like an inch or two, in those areas.

If you are visiting during our "wet" season, the rain typically arrives in the form of afternoon or evening thunderstorms caused by the sea breeze collision. So you would be fine going to a waterpark in the morning and probably early afternoon as well. "Wet" season is typically late May through maybe mid to late October.

If you are visiting during our "dry" season, the rain is usually caused by frontal boundaries moving through, so the rain can happen any time of day.

We have had a 50-60% chance the last couple days. Thursday, we didn't get rain in my neighborhood until after 7pm - the rest of the day was very nice. Friday we got rain starting about 3pm that lasted off and on the rest of the evening. Keep in mind though that sometimes it rains on one side of the street and not the other - that's why it's so hard to predict.

 

[hookedonears]

I have been told that a 60% chance of rain means that they are predicting that 60% of the area will get rain. I had always thought that a 60% chance of rain meant that weather conditions were such that there was a 60% chance that everyone will get rain. It probably all means the same, but the former was the way it was explained to me.

 

[DISHoppy]

I know it rains in FL everyday in the afternoon. On one of the days I am thinking about going to a waterpark the weather forcast says 60% chance of rain. Do you think I have a chance of getting in the park in the morning?

I know you cannot predict the future, just looking for some past experiences.

TIA for any insight.

60% == 60% POP, which is the possibility of precipitation in the forecast area. Like another poster noted, the key is whether the forecast details indicate the amount of precip expected and when. Around here it's fairly easy to forecast when a front is coming through and how much rain to expect (altho they manage to screw that up fairly regularly anyway). Summertime thorms are less easy to predict since they generally popup fairly randomly unless a tropical disturbance is in the area. Usually thorms popup in the mid to late afternoon with day-time heating, and subside in the evening.

</wx geek>



-Kevin

 

[DOOM1001]

This time of year most days you'll see a 40% or 60% chance of rain,so there should be a good chance you'll get rain but it will likely be in the afternoon if you get any.If you get to the waterpark at opening you should be able to get 4 or 5 hours before the rains come,also the park doesn't close unless there's lightning.Also the rains might come and go and you can have a 4 or 5 good hours after it rains in the afternoon.

 

[bradk]

the PPs who have said that it means 60% of the area will receive some rain is correct. chance (like most other meteorological terms) is misleading. in a way, it means you have a 60% chance of seeing rain if you stand in one place in the forecast area, but it technically means that 60% of the area will see it.

same thing with isolated and scattered. they don't refer to time periods, but the percentage of affected areas.

 

[CaptainNemo]

My meteorology professor in college explained that in the past on days with conditions identical to today's it has rained on 60% of them. So, therefor we can say there is a 60% chance it will rain today. The rain does not have to be a total wash out, it can be a 20 minute shower anywhere in the forcast range.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

My meteorology professor in college explained that in the past on days with conditions identical to today's it has rained on 60% of them. So, therefor we can say there is a 60% chance it will rain today. The rain does not have to be a total wash out, it can be a 20 minute shower anywhere in the forcast range.

This is correct.

 

[debbiedana]

I know it rains in FL everyday in the afternoon. On one of the days I am thinking about going to a waterpark the weather forcast says 60% chance of rain. Do you think I have a chance of getting in the park in the morning?

I know you cannot predict the future, just looking for some past experiences.

TIA for any insight.

What does it mean? There is a 40% chance it WON'T rain.

That one was compliments of DH.

The other poster are all correct. Waterparks will close for lightining. And who cares if it rains, you're already wet.

 

[fla4fun]

My meteorology professor in college explained that in the past on days with conditions identical to today's it has rained on 60% of them. So, therefor we can say there is a 60% chance it will rain today. The rain does not have to be a total wash out, it can be a 20 minute shower anywhere in the forcast range.

That doesn't make sense to me, because the percentage should be tied to what is happening in the weather now, not over a historical period. Otherwise, you would never see days with a 100% chance of rain or a 0% chance of rain - because at some point in history every date has to have had at least one dry day and at least one wet day.

Of course, I didn't get my info from a professor - it's what our local meteorologists have explained numerous times over the years.

 

[larryz]

My rule of thumb was anything over 30%, just go ahead and plan for rain.

 

[Uncleromulus]

Archimedes76 has it right--What it means is that they REALLY don't know if it will rain or not. It might--it might not. Maybe just a drop--maybe a shower. Maybe at the MK and not at Epcot.
40%-50%-60% CHANCE--all pretty meaningless, especially if you are trying to plan anything around such a forecast.

 

[remark44]

Thanks for all of the responses. I'm not worried or scaried of a little rain. You all reconfirmed my thoughts. It will probably rain in the afternoon and if it does rain at the waterpark, we are already wet.

Thanks!

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

That doesn't make sense to me, because the percentage should be tied to what is happening in the weather now, not over a historical period. Otherwise, you would never see days with a 100% chance of rain or a 0% chance of rain - because at some point in history every date has to have had at least one dry day and at least one wet day.

Of course, I didn't get my info from a professor - it's what our local meteorologists have explained numerous times over the years.

You're confused about what CaptainNemo was saying. He didn't say any weather condition in the past. (If that were the case, it would be an average and most days in a 1 week period would have the same averages.)

He said "in the past on days with conditions identical to today's..."

Just wanted to clarify.

 

[Aardvarks]

Does it mean that

On previous days where identical conditions existed in terms of fronts, barrometrics. humidity, temperiture that out of ten such days rain fell on 6 of them.

The rain is all or nothing, it has no level of intensity or volume.

I am not a local to Florida, but over the years I have stood atop the big slide at Blizzard beach and watched the rian and electric storms roll across.

They are accurate to 5 mins for clearing the park when the lightening arrives.

Personally we have all stayed in the water parks and indeed all parks during the rain and enjyed it just as much