What are the odds of corona still being an issue in July?

[squirk]

If so, and we are turned away for some reason, I assume trip insurance will cover us for cancellation or interruption or some combination.

Do not ever assume anything with an insurance policy. Read your policy and if the coverage is unclear for a certain risk/peril, call the carrier.

 

[hecmd23]

Just wondering what information you are basing your opinion. There doesn’t seem to be enough data to form a trend, especially since there is not nearly enough testing to confirm actual cases. Since the info so far indicates that the virus is more easily transmissible, R0 of 2.2 for Coronavirus vs 1.3 for flu, it is more likely to be spreading for a while. So how long becomes a good question and there is no indication yet if it will be a seasonal thing or not. Most Coronavirus tends to be seasonal but outbreaks can happen at anytime. Temperate and sub tropical Coronavirus patterns also showed slightly different seasonal patterns in studies. One study also showed that the MERS Coronavirus pattern had the highest cases in June. So any statement on if this will change in the summer months is pure speculation unless you have some details to share.

You are absolutely correct. I apologize for any misinformation I may have provided.

No, my opinion above is not based on any realtime data, as I believe that is still up in the air (no pun intended). But rather, I’m basing everything on my understanding of the basic viral molecular structure. Viruses have an outer shell called a capsid, and sometimes even coated with some proteins. These tend to harden during colder weather, hence increasing the survivability of the virus in finding a host. It also tends to liquefy during warmer temperatures, making the viral components susceptible to the elements, shortening the transmissibility of certain virus.

Now, the funny thing with nature is, as much as new things occur, it still follows patterns. This new virus is from the coronaviridae family, which we have at least 4 known circulating seasonal viruses around. My thought is it will take on the general characteristics of the family, and behave similarly.

You are right to say that anything at this time is pure speculation, so I could be wrong. However nature takes on patterns, and generalities rather than exceptions. Only time will tell.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

Yep just another example on insurance companies adding language to boost profits at the expense of their customers. Plenty of people who bought these policies thought they were protected.

It's more about keeping premiums to a level where people will purchase the policies. Insurance companies are businesses, and they do add a profit provision to the rates, but it isn't as high as you might expect. If they didn't have certain exclusions, they would have to price the cost of these events into the premium. A pandemic like this would be handled through a catastrophe load, which introduces a couple issues. 1) The cost to add that coverage would push the cost of the policies up, perhaps beyond what people want to spend; and 2) modeling the potential cost of an event like this is difficult and adds considerable risk to the solvency of an insurance company. Remember, you need your insurance company to have enough money to pay you if you need to make a claim.

As for people who bought policies and aren't protected from this event, the purchaser is responsible for understanding the policy they purchase. I know I've used the chat feature on the insurance comparison site that can't be linked here to grill the CSR on what's covered and what isn't under different policies. Yet, despite all that, I purchased a trip insurance policy for my April Princess cruise that was limited in scope. Why? Because back last year, the chance that a global pandemic would emerge this winter seemed substantially remote enough that I didn't feel I needed the coverage and I didn't want to pay the extra. It was a gamble on my part, and I'm now sitting on $1,200 in future cruise credit with Princess and $800 in airfare on Delta that I might not use because while Delta is allowing flight changes without penalty, I still have to use that credit before the 1 year mark of when I purchased the tickets and that is October.

 

[mommy2allyandaveri]

I started to read my travel insurance policy and have been rather dismayed by how flimsy the coverage is. (And no, I didn't buy the cheapest policy...but all of the fine print that basically nullifys or conditions the coverage I thought I was buying seems like I got ripped off.)

Read your policy, but if you are denied boarding, your FIRST stop after leaving the port should be an urgent care. If you truly have symptoms (i.e. a fever), you'll need a doctors note saying that you are not well enough to go on a cruise. And you'll need it immediately for your records; not the next day.

What if you are denied boarding, but urgent care says you are good to go? By that point, you have already missed the cruise.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

What if you are denied boarding, but urgent care says you are good to go? By that point, you have already missed the cruise.

Stopping at the urgent care isn't for them to weigh in on whether you should travel or not. The cruise line makes that determination. Stopping at the urgent care is to document you have a fever or whatever other health ailment that caused you to be denied boarding so you can collect on your trip insurance policy.

 

[mommy2allyandaveri]

AFAIK, my family is still planning to travel to Japan in mid-May. (Sadly, I am not going!) They too have scheduled a day at Tokyo Disneyland.

I would still go on your cruises in July, @mommy2allyandaveri.

We ARE absolutely going, unless we are actually ill at the time of boarding or denied boarding.

I'm just trying to think of contingency plans just in case that does happen.

 

[DIS_MIKE]

Nobody knows for sure so we are in no position to even begin speculating what state the virus will be in during the July and summer months. I like the fact that the virus does not thrive well in warmer climates. I was originally going to take my cruise in August because it was cheaper than May BUT of course I have the hurricane issue. I'm sure we'd all take a hurricane cruise with a little chop vs this daggone virus!

If I end up canceling my cruise in May then maybe I'll look into that one in August.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

We ARE absolutely going, unless we are actually ill at the time of boarding or denied boarding.

How can you be sure? As it appears that people who appear not ill can have the virus, and be contagious before they are aware they are sick.

 

[MillauFr]

It's more about keeping premiums to a level where people will purchase the policies. Insurance companies are businesses, and they do add a profit provision to the rates, but it isn't as high as you might expect. If they didn't have certain exclusions, they would have to price the cost of these events into the premium. A pandemic like this would be handled through a catastrophe load, which introduces a couple issues. 1) The cost to add that coverage would push the cost of the policies up, perhaps beyond what people want to spend; and 2) modeling the potential cost of an event like this is difficult and adds considerable risk to the solvency of an insurance company. Remember, you need your insurance company to have enough money to pay you if you need to make a claim.

As for people who bought policies and aren't protected from this event, the purchaser is responsible for understanding the policy they purchase. I know I've used the chat feature on the insurance comparison site that can't be linked here to grill the CSR on what's covered and what isn't under different policies. Yet, despite all that, I purchased a trip insurance policy for my April Princess cruise that was limited in scope. Why? Because back last year, the chance that a global pandemic would emerge this winter seemed substantially remote enough that I didn't feel I needed the coverage and I didn't want to pay the extra. It was a gamble on my part, and I'm now sitting on $1,200 in future cruise credit with Princess and $800 in airfare on Delta that I might not use because while Delta is allowing flight changes without penalty, I still have to use that credit before the 1 year mark of when I purchased the tickets and that is October.

Even the lawyers can’t figure out what is covered after reading these policies

 

[MillauFr]

But they don't add this language after you've bought the policy - it's in there when you purchase it. Always read your policy to ensure it's the coverage you want. I know that they're sometimes difficult to read, but the very first place to look is in the exclusions.

They are impossible to read

 

[mommy2allyandaveri]

They are impossible to read

Yes, they are! I'm on hold to actually ask my questions now. I know it's far away but I want to be prepared.

 

[ScooterScott44]

You are absolutely correct. I apologize for any misinformation I may have provided.

No, my opinion above is not based on any realtime data, as I believe that is still up in the air (no pun intended). But rather, I’m basing everything on my understanding of the basic viral molecular structure. Viruses have an outer shell called a capsid, and sometimes even coated with some proteins. These tend to harden during colder weather, hence increasing the survivability of the virus in finding a host. It also tends to liquefy during warmer temperatures, making the viral components susceptible to the elements, shortening the transmissibility of certain virus.

Now, the funny thing with nature is, as much as new things occur, it still follows patterns. This new virus is from the coronaviridae family, which we have at least 4 known circulating seasonal viruses around. My thought is it will take on the general characteristics of the family, and behave similarly.

You are right to say that anything at this time is pure speculation, so I could be wrong. However nature takes on patterns, and generalities rather than exceptions. Only time will tell.

Please don’t apologize, I was hoping that you had some insight that would help confirm that this virus will indeed act like we would expect. Like you I am hopeful that it does, but genetics change and bacteria and viruses today are not the same as they once were. Each evolution has the potential for a new behavior. Could this be the one that doesn’t follow a normal pattern? Probably not but yes, Only time will tell.

Since the number of cases are bound to go up regardless of seasonality it is still prudent to practice good personal hygiene and responsibility, and truely assess your own personal risks before making travel decisions based on what we do know.

 

[smmco]

Yes, they are! I'm on hold to actually ask my questions now. I know it's far away but I want to be prepared.

I’m a couple weeks out from my PIF date and looking at insurance too We plan on sailing too. If you find a good policy pleas share.

 

[Trera]

I’m a couple weeks out from my PIF date and looking at insurance too We plan on sailing too. If you find a good policy pleas share.

My guess is finding a policy to cover anything to do with the Coronavirus will be impossible as insurance companies will not want cover an existing pandemic. If you do, it will be a fortune now.

 

[smmco]

I don’t think any of us here are qualified to be oddsmakers in this regard.

Depending on where you get your news, there is a lot of stuff floating around about how long this will last.

There is an existing pneumonia treatment named remdezivir which may be helpful in treating people with COVID-19. Apparently, it’s the pneumonia complication that is the greatest danger with this virus.

There’s also a line of thought that, like the normal seasonal flu virus(es), COVID-19 can’t thrive or transmit nearly as easily in warm weather. So as we move into spring and summer, we may see transmission rates drop.

I have absolutely no expert knowledge or empirical evidence to back me up on this, but my 100% armchair hunch is that the virus will still be kicking around in July, but it will be much more contained and there will be some treatments. Deaths will drop off significantly, and as such, we won’t be in quite the panicked frenzy we have been these past few weeks.

I work in healthcare and this is my thought also. It’s not based on anything except what I see year after year with flu. I do expect it to be back next winter along with the flu. At some point will have immunity or a vaccine. I remember all the hysteria of the swine flu, but it tapered off in the Summer also.

 

[smmco]

My guess is finding a policy to cover anything to do with the Coronavirus will be impossible as insurance companies will not want cover an existing pandemic. If you do, it will be a fortune now.

Yes but cancel for any reason should cover it right.

 

[Trera]

Yes but cancel for any reason should cover it right.

My guess is that cancel for any reason are shooting up in price or they are writing coronavirus as an exclusion

 

[VictoriaAndMatt]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its...pear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says.html
I’m not saying it will or won’t die down in the hotter months, but there is also no evidence that it will. There’s hope of course, but this isn’t the flu. So hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

 

[AZMermaid]

Yes but cancel for any reason should cover it right.

When I looked a week ago, it wasn’t covered because it is now a predictable event. This was for a new booking, for a cruise booked about 6 months ago. I didn't do tons of digging, so there could be one out there, but in the 10-ish I looked at that were “cancel for any reason” didn’t cover cancelling for corona virus.

 

[Kestryl]

When I looked a week ago, it wasn’t covered because it is now a predictable event. This was for a new booking, for a cruise booked about 6 months ago. I didn't do tons of digging, so there could be one out there, but in the 10-ish I looked at that were “cancel for any reason” didn’t cover cancelling for corona virus.

Wait, are you saying that “cancel for any reason” did NOT cover coronavirus? How could it be labeled as CFR then? (I realize New York doesn’t typically sell CFR- not sure if that’s changed.) Like, if it’s “cancel for only these limited reasons,” I don’t get the point of CFR.