What are the chances of summer airfare sales? Buy now or wait?

[kirsnikity]

Cheapest flights out to Orlando from our area are $338/person r/t for our travel dates 7/25-8/2. Should I just bite the bullet now? My gut tells me prices are not going to drop very much but have the potential to go a lot higher. With rising fuel prices what are the chances for summer airfare sales? I have noticed that there are TONS of seats available so it's not like there's a high demand right now

 

[Bob P]

Hi,

Checking airfare prices is like investing in the stock market! Sometimes you look really smart by waiting, and sometimes, well...not so smart. Sometimes the price will go up, and sometimes it will go down.

Are you a gambler? My opinion is: if you are comfortable with the price now you should book it.

 

[Abbie]

I've been watching and waiting till three months out for our June flights on SW. Right at three months, they dropped down to $114 (one way) which is pretty good out of Balt. This was also right after the news was all about fuel increases. I waited an extra day and wouldn't you know the prices jumped up to $160. So I panicked a little and purchased on JetBlue for $103, but the return is to DC. Not a huge deal but kind of a pain.

Prices on SW stayed at $160 for a few more days, now today they are back down to $114! I am sooo tired of this game.

Check to see what the prices are at exactly three months out, that will give you a good idea of what prices are doing.

 

[kirsnikity]

I ended up buying the tickets. Of course in three weeks they'll probably drop in price I'm not really a gambler and was getting sick of seeing airfares yo yo up and down. I wanted to wait till three months out but figured the small discount that may occur probably doesn't outweigh the anxiety of waiting for fares to drop, LOL.

Abbie--I definitely feel your pain! I'm flying out of a farther airport for the way out to save some money. I wish prices could just be more predictable...

 

[LaurenT]

I booked our Oct flights as soon as they posted on SW...I checked today and the departing flight has already gone up $27 per ticket...
So, for now Im happy...if it winds up going lower han my price, I'll get a credit - but why risk having one of the only 2 nonstop flights leaving my airport that day selling out?

 

[Brian Noble]

From Southern California, I think $340 round trip is a fair price---particularly if they are nonstop flights, but even with a connection that's pretty good. I'm typically paying about $500 RT minimum from DTW to anything on the west coast.

The general advice around here is: have a price in mind you can live with, and when you see a price that meets your budget at times you can fly, go for it. More importantly, base your "can live with it" price on what's happening in the market *today*, not several years ago. The airlines have been much more disciplined about keeping capacity down, and that coupled with a recent run-up in fuel prices has pushed prices higher over the past year or so.

 

[WDW Traveler]

I booked my flights the day they were released by SW. Back in August 2009, for the same flights, we paid about $230. Two years later, for August 2011, we are paying $260. Not too bad. I am glad that I booked them. The same flights now, about a month or so later, are almost $200 more per person!! Now I'm not saying that they won't go down at the three month mark, but things are not looking good for that to happen, so I'm glad I bought them when I did. If you are comfortable with the price, I would say book. I myself am not a gambler and I would be freaking out right now if I hadn't already booked my flights.

 

[Lewisc]

Price of jet fuel continues to go up and airlines might combine flights rather then have fare sales.

I know people will say the schedule assumes the plane going to MCO needs to be positioned in MCO for an outgoing flight. That's solved if the plane is going back to the original airport. Cancel the flight to MCO and the corresponding flight from MCO.

SW doesn't do this. Other airlines might.

Jet fuel drops and we may see fare sales.

 

[mdsd8700]

Agree with other posters, decide what you "can live with" price wise. It seems like for most of us we will never get the prices we were getting a few years back. We are paying $341 per person RT on SW for June. Much more than we ever have. It did go down a bit from our initial purhchase, $17 per person so not that much. I am hoping it goes down again and we will even get a further credit as we have a trip planned in November as well, but not counting on that.

Good Luck.

 

[Abbie]

It seems like for most of us we will never get the prices we were getting a few years back.

This is what I thought too, especially with all the media focus on fuel prices, but I'm finding just the opposite, at least for this market. There are a ton of $89 fares, even some $79, and a lot of $114 fares right up through May and into June right now. That's as low as it ever goes and it's just about what we have always paid in previous years. Balt may be a SW hub, so maybe that has something to do with it. As you look at dates further out, prices are high again. Not a whole lot of rhyme or reason!

 

[WDWisTheBest]

Price of jet fuel continues to go up and airlines might combine flights rather then have fare sales. I know people will say the schedule assumes the plane going to MCO needs to be positioned in MCO for an outgoing flight. That's solved if the plane is going back to the original airport. Cancel the flight to MCO and the corresponding flight from MCO.
SW doesn't do this. Other airlines might. Jet fuel drops and we may see fare sales.

I agree that most airlines will probably combine flights to save any fuel costs they can.

It is a big gamble but not one I would wish to take to think that the jet fuel prices are going to come down. Libya is not going to be producing its 1.6 million barrels per day for some time in the future. Saudi Arabia is under intense political pressure right now.

Here is something from the news today which addresses that issue: "President Barack Obama has called King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain to express deep concern over the violence in Bahrain. "

Does that strike anyone as an omen that jet fuel prices will come down this summer?

In addition to jet fuel costs, renewed airline pricing power comes down to the fundamentals: supply and demand. On the supply side, the domestic U.S. airline industry by the fourth quarter of 2010 had shed 23 million seats compared to three years earlier, according to Hudson Securities analyst Dan McKenzie.

 

[Fionasmommy]

This is such a tough call! I finally caved and bought our May/June tickets last weekend. I've been watching the fares since before Christmas, and they have stayed really high. I finally bought because I talked to a friend who had just cancelled a spring break trip to FL because she kept waiting for the fares to come down and they never did. I ended up paying $355 pp DEN-MCO, which is about $130 more each than I paid for tickets in April 2010. I also had to completely change our schedule because the flights I planned to book would have been $450 pp!

I booked through Southwest so I've been watching and hoping that the fares will go down atleast enough for me to get back the day we've lost, but they've already gone up $50 this week.

Bottom line - If you can buy now, I probably would.