What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

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There will be a second wave. Realistically even if society loosens for a time there is a big difference between "going to work and buy Cheetos" and "crossing state lines and international borders" and "gathering in large groups."

There will be a second wave.
 
Did they give a reason as to why it was canceled?
Some of my family members have a flight at the end of this month to Europe and I have one in June. No word on cancellations.
Loads are down. The airlines have no choice but to contract. AA has cancelled about all their European flights except LHR and BCN. You can get to just about anywhere in Europe in under 2 hours from LHR. Delta and United are also reducing flights.
 
Start to let up sure, but crowded theme parks and packed cruise ships? They're kind of worse case scenarios when you have to maintain social distance. I expect to be back at work and grocery shopping long before going into really big tightly packed crowds is a normal occurrence again. My calm and collected husband shocked me when he asked if we should bother booking dining for our planned trip in October. He doesn't think it'll happen, but I booked a few things in case it does.
You honestly think the world will still be shut down in October. You must have really safe jobs if you think we can go on like this.
 
Prediction here from experts is that airlines will be back to normal travel in June.

Maybe late June but early June is looking pretty grim right now. It takes a while to wind down an airline and it takes just as much time to wind it back up. Considering many airlines have already shattered their May schedules as much as their April schedules, I'd say it's highly optimistic to think they'll be back to normal in June. People have to be willing to go outside first and then the willingness to travel beyond the grocery store will follow. And further defining normal...actual pre-COVID traffic levels will probably be at least a year or two away to full recovery for demand. Many airlines have already sent plenty to the desert to be scrapped. They're all going to be smaller airlines when they are fully running again.
 

You honestly think the world will still be shut down in October. You must have really safe jobs if you think we can go on like this.

We do, but as I said I fully expect to be back to work and grocery shopping etc. Travel is not essential, its frivolous and theme parks/cruise ships are incredibly crowded compared to real life. I'm specifically calling out theme parks and cruise ships. Keeping those shut down is NOT keeping the world shut down.
 
We do, but as I said I fully expect to be back to work and grocery shopping etc. Travel is not essential, its frivolous and theme parks/cruise ships are incredibly crowded compared to real life. I'm specifically calling out theme parks and cruise ships. Keeping those shut down is NOT keeping the world shut down.

Travel is essential, maybe not all travel, but travel in general is essential. Theme parks and cruise ships are not the only things that are crowded, especially when it relates to the entire hospitality industry. There are many jobs, both the obvious and the not so obvious, that are affected. And to many cities, states, and countries...it's really everything to them.
 
We do, but as I said I fully expect to be back to work and grocery shopping etc. Travel is not essential, its frivolous and theme parks/cruise ships are incredibly crowded compared to real life. I'm specifically calling out theme parks and cruise ships. Keeping those shut down is NOT keeping the world shut down.
What about all the millions that work in travel industry? Are they frivolous too? That’s a pretty selfish comment.
 
The world will not open up like a power button but rather like a dimmer switch. Slowly, some things will open up, like dentists and more stores. More business will reopen, though jobs where people can work from home may primarily work from home for some time. Schools will come back into session.

Things that bring large crowds into close proximity will be the last to come back, and that's where Disney is: stadiums with sports, amusement parks and (yes) cruise lines. That's because if people start getting sick again and overwhelm hospitals and doctors, things will start shutting back down. As much as I'd like for everything to be over in June, I think that's positive thinking about what we'd like to happen and not supported by any evidence currently available.
 
I live in Phoenix. One of our largest suburbs (Mesa 500k people) just announced all unessential services (museums, arts center (think auditoriums/stages my daughters dance recitals are here- her studio holds 5 recitals over a weekend in mid June), recreation (maybe parks, pools, not totally sure what this covers) will be closed until Sept 30. I was fairly stunned by this. I really thought we’d be largely on the other side of this by June, not fully, but way better. Especially in a Phoenix where we sit above 105 degrees June-Mid October and above 110 a lot of those days!
In a trivial sense, this worries me for my July 1 cruise.

On a serious note, my husband lost his job a couple weeks before Covid hit. He has another one secured, but it’s on hold. His final interview was the week everything really shut down.He applied, but likely won’t qualify for unemployment. We are okay now.... but lasting till October without support will be devastating.
 
My flight to Berlin in August was just canceled. The number of domestic and international flights cancelled this Summer is staggering. I think it will be a couple of years before airlines recover from this. Layoffs and bankruptcies are coming. Just a reminder to everyone to keep an eye on any flights you have booked.
Hi smmco,
From following this thread I think you’re on the same cruise as me (August 5th Northern Europe)? I called Disney to cancel last week and after they pointed out that I still had until May 7th to cancel I kept my reservation for now. Would love to know what your thoughts are!
 
I live in Phoenix. One of our largest suburbs (Mesa 500k people) just announced all unessential services (museums, arts center (think auditoriums/stages my daughters dance recitals are here- her studio holds 5 recitals over a weekend in mid June), recreation (maybe parks, pools, not totally sure what this covers) will be closed until Sept 30. I was fairly stunned by this. I really thought we’d be largely on the other side of this by June, not fully, but way better. Especially in a Phoenix where we sit above 105 degrees June-Mid October and above 110 a lot of those days!
In a trivial sense, this worries me for my July 1 cruise.

On a serious note, my husband lost his job a couple weeks before Covid hit. He has another one secured, but it’s on hold. His final interview was the week everything really shut down.He applied, but likely won’t qualify for unemployment. We are okay now.... but lasting till October without support will be devastating.
Until Sept 30? So they are basically saying that school will not start in Sept? 😲 I would have thought they'd make the rule at least until school started and expand if it needed expanding.
 
Until Sept 30? So they are basically saying that school will not start in Sept? 😲 I would have thought they'd make the rule at least until school started and expand if it needed expanding.
True I didnt think of school. They didn't include school but Mesa is just one big district (biggest in state) vs Phoenix which has like 30 districts. We usually start school around August 10.
 
Hi smmco,
From following this thread I think you’re on the same cruise as me (August 5th Northern Europe)? I called Disney to cancel last week and after they pointed out that I still had until May 7th to cancel I kept my reservation for now. Would love to know what your thoughts are!
I’m on the 8/13. Our flights were cancelled by the airline. We were going to Berlin before the cruise. I may hold off until May 12 to decide. Maybe they’ll offer a cruise credit to rebook. If we have to switch to next year will do the 10 day next August. I booked with AA miles. Hopefully there still around next year so I can use my miles. Airlines are losing about 60 million a day. Delta said they’ll be out of cash by June. I bet most of them will be filing for bankruptcy in the next year.

Im sure this is just for the next month or two, but airlines won’t fly cruise passengers. They have no way of knowing you’ve been on a cruise so that seems like a stupid thing to try to implement.
To answer your question I have no freaking idea.
 
Until Sept 30? So they are basically saying that school will not start in Sept? 😲 I would have thought they'd make the rule at least until school started and expand if it needed expanding.
Totally ridiculous. I work as an RN in Phoenix and hospitals are all low census. My co workers are going to flip out if this is the case.
 
True I didnt think of school. They didn't include school but Mesa is just one big district (biggest in state) vs Phoenix which has like 30 districts. We usually start school around August 10.

schools probably wouldn’t fall into non essential on the end . But if schools are back in then most community things should be able to open in the end
 
You honestly think the world will still be shut down in October. You must have really safe jobs if you think we can go on like this.
I have a safe job and the world cannot go on like this. I don’t want to farm my own food and barter for electricity or phone service. We need to start the engine back up soon before we freeze ourselves out of modern civilization.
 
I have a safe job and the world cannot go on like this. I don’t want to farm my own food and barter for electricity or phone service. We need to start the engine back up soon before we freeze ourselves out of modern civilization.
I think some people live in a bubble and are out of touch with reality. Everyone will be affected by 30% unemployment.
Some of the Baltic counties are reopening schools and businesses this month at least some countries are getting off this crazy train.
 
The world will not open up like a power button but rather like a dimmer switch. Slowly, some things will open up, like dentists and more stores. More business will reopen, though jobs where people can work from home may primarily work from home for some time. Schools will come back into session.

Things that bring large crowds into close proximity will be the last to come back, and that's where Disney is: stadiums with sports, amusement parks and (yes) cruise lines. That's because if people start getting sick again and overwhelm hospitals and doctors, things will start shutting back down. As much as I'd like for everything to be over in June, I think that's positive thinking about what we'd like to happen and not supported by any evidence currently available.

I don't think "large crowds into close proximity" will return until like October. Like you said, similar to how we slowly got things taken away, things will slowly begin to come back. I am also a huge sports fan and so I'm already expecting college football and NFL to start at a date later than September, which is the normal start time. I have no idea what the MLB is going to do.

And then of course theme parks and cruise lines are going to have to make an equally big decision. Especially theme parks and more specifically, Disney World given the amount of people they are capable of fitting in. To add to it, I think a lot of people are going to be scared to go to Disney World, on a cruise or even to a sporting event for the first few months those things are back.

I don't mean to make this sound all "doom and gloom" but just my thoughts. I am very confident that all three of those things will come back (and can't wait until they do) but there's still a lot to be answered.
 
I think some people live in a bubble and are out of touch with reality. Everyone will be affected by 30% unemployment.
Some of the Baltic counties are reopening schools and businesses this month at least some countries are getting off this crazy train.

Yes. People don't realize that we are on the verge of a much bigger crises than the Great Depression if we don't start the engine back up soon. I think 30% unemployment will look like wishful thinking if this keeps up for too long. The economy has never been turned off like this in modern times.

I understand the danger of the virus. I understand it isn't just the flu. But to say lives are always more important than money is a) not how society has ever worked, and b) shows a major underestimation of what a second great depression actually means (hint, it isn't just about bank accounts).

We have always accepted risk to allow convenience, commerce, and modern life. For example, if we published every auto-accident death, you would see 3,700 deaths per day. It would look like a bloody massacre. Under our current risk tolerance level for the virus, that would mean an end to all automobile travel no matter the cost to society.

A severe and lasting depression could be far more detrimental to society than the deaths caused by this virus (mental health, suicide, and significant loss of quality of life for billions of people). The people hurt the worst will be the lowest socioeconomic levels. They aren't concerned about bank accounts, they are concerned about feeding their families and having utilities and shelter.

Not to mention that all the "essential procedures" you are hearing are not happening at hospitals are more essential than you think. For example, treatment of heart disease, cancer, etc. What are the lasting health effects of stopping those procedures for months on end?

The part that bothers me the most is that I think there is a middle-ground that would have been much better than these long isolation (for non-essential workers) where the virus will likely just rage again once we come out of hiding.

First, each country should have spared no expense to build temporary facilities, ventilators, testing kits, and protective equipment.

There is a middle ground here where businesses stayed open with extreme protective measures (such as mandatory masks, readily placed hand sanitizer, and mandatory table distancing in restaurants). Infected individuals should have been quickly isolated.

Yes, there would be more deaths. Yes, hospitals would have been overwhelmed at times. But, we would have had not collapsed modern society in the process. People die. It stinks. But we are animals susceptible to disease and death. It is a fact.

We have accepted significant risk and death in so many areas to make society better as a whole. We used to tolerate risk, even death. We need to quickly pull up our big boy/girl/people pants and face this thing head on.
 
Yes. People don't realize that we are on the verge of a much bigger crises than the Great Depression if we don't start the engine back up soon. I think 30% unemployment will look like wishful thinking if this keeps up for too long. The economy has never been turned off like this in modern times.

I understand the danger of the virus. I understand it isn't just the flu. But to say lives are always more important than money is a) not how society has ever worked, and b) shows a major underestimation of what a second great depression actually means (hint, it isn't just about bank accounts).

We have always accepted risk to allow convenience, commerce, and modern life. For example, if we published every auto-accident death, you would see 3,700 deaths per day. It would look like a bloody massacre. Under our current risk tolerance level for the virus, that would mean an end to all automobile travel no matter the cost to society.

A severe and lasting depression could be far more detrimental to society than the deaths caused by this virus (mental health, suicide, and significant loss of quality of life for billions of people). The people hurt the worst will be the lowest socioeconomic levels. They aren't concerned about bank accounts, they are concerned about feeding their families and having utilities and shelter.

Not to mention that all the "essential procedures" you are hearing are not happening at hospitals are more essential than you think. For example, treatment of heart disease, cancer, etc. What are the lasting health effects of stopping those procedures for months on end?

The part that bothers me the most is that I think there is a middle-ground that would have been much better than these long isolation (for non-essential workers) where the virus will likely just rage again once we come out of hiding.

First, each country should have spared no expense to build temporary facilities, ventilators, testing kits, and protective equipment.

There is a middle ground here where businesses stayed open with extreme protective measures (such as mandatory masks, readily placed hand sanitizer, and mandatory table distancing in restaurants). Infected individuals should have been quickly isolated.

Yes, there would be more deaths. Yes, hospitals would have been overwhelmed at times. But, we would have had not collapsed modern society in the process. People die. It stinks. But we are animals susceptible to disease and death. It is a fact.

We have accepted significant risk and death in so many areas to make society better as a whole. We used to tolerate risk, even death. We need to quickly pull up our big boy/girl/people pants and face this thing head on.

Yes! We can't go on keeping everything closed. I actually have wondered about all the procedures and tests and such that have been postponed. Some due to dr's cancelling and some are critical enough but people are living in such fear they won't go to the dr. even when they should be.
 
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