Unfortunately...there are no guarantees with mother nature, but we sailed on the Magic Presidents Day week of 2015. The weather was beautiful at Castaway Cay. The temperatures were not scorching, but they were not cold either. Perfect IMO. But, that being said, the water was too chilly. Basically spent zero time in the water because of this. I will say that February is still the dry season for us here in tropical climates, so the chances of rain are very slim. Your biggest concern is water temperature.
Also, keep in mind that we are Florida residents and my DD is born and raised Floridian. Our tolerance (or lack there of) could be a symptom of that. LOLHere is what I will say. The water temperature will be starting to get warmer in April, but may not be much better yet. The true water temperature changes occur closer to late May. The air temperature would be slightly warmer as well. However, you are beginning to head into wet season in the tropics at that point, so....it's a trade off. Slightly warmer water = slightly higher chance of rain. Cooler water = dry air and little change of rain. My DD (8 at the time) felt the water was too chilly, but she still made it out to Pelican Plunge once. DS (15 at the time), on the other hand, participated in the Wild Side Teen Excursion on CC and they go snorkeling and speed boating and he still had a wonderful time, even though the water was chilly.
It is all about priorities. The $1k would be hard for me to part with for the same cruise, when I could be using that for fruity drinks and port adventures, etc. But, you have to do what works best for you.
We'll be in Falmouth in March and we will not get off the ship. My idea of a fun port day does not include Margaritaville, police escorts or getting offers from pot dealers. We're planning on going on the Aquaduck in loops that day.I would look at the port adventures for each one. I have been to Cozumel, not Costa Maya, so I have no experience with that one, and I have not been to Jamaica, but I have not heard great things. People say the excursions are nice, but outside of one of those, don't leave the port!
Jamaica, in the last 15 years, has had one of the highest, if not the highest, murder rate in the world. And the last time I visited the country, I was offered pot, for the first of many times, between the door of the airport and the bus taking us to our resort, 40 feet away. The port in Falmouth is fenced-off from the real world and is perfectly safe, but, as I said, a Diamond International store and Margaritaville are not worth getting off the ship for. I'm also convinced that people on excursions are well protected and won't see crimes being committed.
