Weather forecast question

[yellownovawife]

The Weather Network currently lists 90-100% chance of rain for every day of my trip (May 20-23)
What weather website is the most reliable for WDW? How many days in advance can it be considered reliable?

 

[ConnecticutNonna]

It does rain frequently in Florida, but don't let that stop you! Bring ponchos and keep on truckin'.
The thing about Florida rain is it rarely lasts, and sometimes it rains in one park and not the other. (Happened to us in AK last year, crazy quick squall, nothing at MK - go figure!)

 

[Huff]

I use the national weather service, www.weather.gov. They seem to be much more accurate that others. Its common this time of year for afternoon rains lasting 1-2 hours or less almost every day. Forecasts more than a few days out aren't very accurate.

 

[P'colaBeachBum]

https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:32801.1.99999

 

[CAS239]

Don't pay attention until about 24 hours out.

And just because it says 100% chance of rain...highly likely it'll only rain for 30 min or so, and it'll be scattered showers.

 

[ConnecticutNonna]

Don't pay attention until about 24 hours out.

And just because it says 100% chance of rain...highly likely it'll only rain for 30 min or so, and it'll be scattered showers.

So true!

 

[maryj11]

I would say the only time you would expect an all day rain is if a hurricane were coming through.

 

[GPC0321]

Don't worry. I stressed over the forecast before our Easter trip because it said the same thing. We were there 6 days and the only significant rain we experienced was one late afternoon at the MK. We were trapped in some shops on Main Street for awhile before it eased enough that we donned our ponchos and splashed off about our merry way. By the time we hopped back to Epcot and rode a few things, it stopped for IllumiNations.

There's nothing you can do about the weather, so pack those ponchos and carry on! I promise, you'll still be having more fun there in the rain than you would at home in the sunshine. And it will not rain the entire time. It really won't.

 

[DebbieB]

I would say the only time you would expect an all day rain is if a hurricane were coming through.

Not always true. I remember a trip in early December a few years ago when it rained 24 hours straight twice during our trip. A cold front parked over Florida.

I've been here since last Sunday, not a drop of rain.

 

[loves to dive]

It's Florida, chances are an afternoon shower. Could be a light shower for 30 minutes, could be a gully washer for a hour. Could be raining at MK and nothing at AK.

 

[Dis703]

It's so unpredictable. The forecasts were all wrong the last couple of trips we were there. There wasn't supposed to be any rain and we had 2 days of pretty much all day rain. Even a few hours out they were still wrong. Just be prepared for some amount of rain and hope it's just the afternoon showers.

 

[1lilspark]

it's FL pretty much from late may until Sept it rains pretty much every day. As long as it's not lightning you'll be fine

 

[NickPWilde]

I'm going to be in the parks next week and I do not even look at the forecast this far ahead. Florida weather is ever changing when it comes to showers.

Always pack a poncho because showers pop up when they aren't in the forecast as often as they just don't show up when the weatherman calls for them.

 

[gap2368]

The Weather Network currently lists 90-100% chance of rain for every day of my trip (May 20-23)
What weather website is the most reliable for WDW? How many days in advance can it be considered reliable?

in the summer in FL it rains just about every day for an hour or two bring a poncho or get one at WDW and have fun

 

[bluezy]

The Weather Network currently lists 90-100% chance of rain for every day of my trip (May 20-23)
What weather website is the most reliable for WDW? How many days in advance can it be considered reliable?

Assume it's going to rain every day. Pack and plan accordingly. Then check the weather forecast about 24-48 hours out and you'll have a much better picture of what the weather will *truly* by like. Chances are that you won't need heavy-duty rain gear, but better to be prepared just in case. I swear (and I think someone confirmed this one time) that the weather forecast for central FL defaults to 100% chance of rain every day during spring/summer. They start to update it it about a week beforehand and it gets a little more accurate every day.

I would say the only time you would expect an all day rain is if a hurricane were coming through.

Or if a low front stalls over central FL and pulls moisture from the ocean for 7 days and produces more rain than a typical hurricane but can't be classified as a hurricane because there are no high winds with it. That happened in May 2009. Not fun...but still an awesome visit!

 

[gap2368]

Assume it's going to rain every day. Pack and plan accordingly. Then check the weather forecast about 24-48 hours out and you'll have a much better picture of what the weather will *truly* by like. Chances are that you won't need heavy-duty rain gear, but better to be prepared just in case. I swear (and I think someone confirmed this one time) that the weather forecast for central FL defaults to 100% chance of rain every day during spring/summer. They start to update it it about a week beforehand and it gets a little more accurate every day.



As a FL resident for over 30 years this is true about 90% of the time all though it can rain one one side of WDW and not the other. and they will keep the rides open as long as it is not raining too hard to thundering ( this will bring a stop to the rides very fast.) the out door ones like 7DMT BTMRR dumbo extra if you have a FP for one and it is stopped due to rain you will get a new FP for a new ride or you can wait and use it latter for the original ride.

also you will some times see rain chance 90% for 3pm to 5 and then at 2 it goes away or the other way around no rain chance then an hour before bam 90% of rain

 

[snayak]

Its important to understand how to interpret a forecast.

I recommend going here - http://la.utexas.edu/users/kimmel/nwsforecasts.html

A quick snippit:

To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01" inch of more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified.

Using a 40% probability of rain as an example, it does not mean (1) that 40% of the area will be covered by precipitation at given time in the given forecast area or (2) that you will be seeing precipitation 40% of the time in the given forecast area for the given forecast time period.

In other words, a 100% chance of rain means that there is a 100% chance that 0.01" in rain will fall somewhere in the forecast area - pretty vague huh?

So - I would not worry about the weather - even with a 100% chance of rain it could miss the park you are in or just be a very brief sprinkle. There is really nothing you can do, so, bring everyone a poncho and have fun!

 

[JZCubed]

The Weather Network currently lists 90-100% chance of rain for every day of my trip (May 20-23)
What weather website is the most reliable for WDW? How many days in advance can it be considered reliable?

9-nite stay last summer.

Rained every day....even while we were in the Parks.

We seemed to have have avoided every drop....while seeing PhilharMagic....eating in Tusker House......

Yes, we were lucky - it rained every day and had ZERO impact our enjoyment.

 

[msk]

There is a great app called RainAware. It will tell you when the rain will start and how long it should last. We used it during our trip last May and many times since we have been home. It is quite accurate and not very expensive.

 

[drp4video]

Most likely it will rain somewhere in the afternoon, probably between 3:00 and 5:00 and will last about 30 minutes. When it happens we usually get a late lunch or do an inside ride. When we come out, rain is over and it has not cooled down lol

Rain in June-August is always a given, and I have had the pleasant experience of a hurricane twice.

Note though: I was there May 13-17 last year and saw no rain at all. I attribute that to the fact that I carried my poncho with me every day. Had I not had it, it would have poured.