Weather forecast-how far out reasonably accurate?

[Snurk71]

I know southern CA weather can vary greatly in a short period of time (day to day). Curious to hear from some locals how far out you reasonably (80%) rely on a temperature forecast - 2 days, 5 days, a week?

I know the weather could still turn. But curious when to start zoning in on the forecast.

Thanks

 

[sonnyjane]

I'd say at five days they have a pretty good grasp on it. Sometimes it's a few degrees higher than predicted, sometimes a few less, but within five days it's good enough to build a plan. Rain patterns can also be predicted fairly well within 5 days, although 2-3 is more accurate as far as rain is concerned when it comes to how much rain and what times of day.

 

[perlster]

I'll give you my real-world experience. For this past Monday, the Anaheim forecast (at weather.com and accuweather.com) had been, and remained, "30% chance of rain" from the start - ten days out. Even Monday morning, I checked online and saw that rain was predicted for a few AM hours. When I arrived at DLR, there were cloudy skies, but not a drop of rain.

 

[wdw4rfam]

I will say from experience, that it has NEVER been accurate for us. We usually go in September- and this year the day we left said 60-90% chance of rain every day, and it rained only 1 day. It has always been better than they said. The temp's seem pretty accurate though.

 

[Albort]

just last week, 20% chance of rain... it ACTUALLY rained...