We are getting ready for Isabel....

[betz]

Here is the historical tracking map of storms similar to Isabela (my name in Espanol), it seems Florida should be ok if history proves to be true

 

[Talking Hands]

JustHolly. As a Cat 5, I would say that if it heads your way, Get the hell out of Dodge! Andrew hit my house and I don't even want to think about another Cat 5 storm hitting my area again. I am praying that the storm somehow heads out to sea and away from any and all land areas.
Cat 5s are really scary.

 

[Tiggeroo]

That being said, I believe hurricanes rarely effect Orlando. Most likely you will just get bad storms if anything, or flooding if you are in an area prone to this. In the event that it is not bad enough to evacuate, prepare for bad storms. This would include being prepared for loss of power and/or water for a bit, getting things out of low-lying areas that could be water damaged. It wouldn't hurt to get a package of your most valuable items, photos birth certs. etc together just in case.
Looking at past projections NJ could be hit. I live beach block and will be doing some preparing this weekend. Even if the hurricane doesn't hit here directly we often get a storm surge.

 

[Kitty 34]

I sure hope it turns north real quick and just heads into the colder Atlantic waters, hopefully missing poor Bermuda, too.

 

[Big V]

This one looks BAD. I saw it on the Weather Channel this morning and it is a scary sight! I will pray that all of you stay safe on the East coast.

 

[Poohbear123]

Be out of the Woods!?? Not sure till Sunday, but hope it won't hit land anywhere at ALL!

 

[Talking Hands]

I sure pray we are out of the woods. I hope everyone is out of the woods on this one. Guess Sunday we will have a better idea.

 

[Magickndm]

We're not going to do much preperations until Monday, they should know better by then when it will hit. Right now, as it stands, we have the highest chance (40%) of getting it, but anyone living in FL knows you just can't predict these things. I am making a list of all the irreplaceable things to take, and we do have a travel trailer, so we'll take that with us if we do decide to leave, so we'll have a place to sleep at least.
Hopefully Monday brings good news and this baby moves north....quick!

 

[DISshopkeeper]

It's moving so slowly they don't expect it to hit land until, what, Thursday next week? And the last track I saw looked a lot like the ones that betz posted, swinging kind of easterly back out towards sea. At least that's what I'm praying for.

 

[GeekChic]

It's moving so slowly they don't expect it to hit land until, what, Thursday next week?

I'm so depressed, that's when we're supposed to fly into FL.

I keep telling DH that we should do all we can to move our travel plans up, but he doesn't seem to be working with me on this.

I hope I'm wrong but I have a feeling that we'll be delayed, if we can fly in at all next week. But I'm more worried about family who live in Alabama, we're just talking about our vacation, but their lives could be in danger

Not going to be a happy weekend, waiting her out...

 

[FloridaCat]

Sounds like it is going to bypass us. Still to early to tell, but prayers for my DD in Wilmington, NC as they look like the likley target from tonights Orlando news.

 

[Pin Wizard]

Have they changed the forecast? The last I heard they were hoping for a turn and it would head to the Carolinas.

 

[bsnyder]

Originally posted by GeekChic
But I'm more worried about family who live in Alabama, we're just talking about our vacation, but their lives could be in danger

Very little chance that this storm will make it into the Gulf and affect Alabama.

Everyone along the eastern coastline should stay alert, but not panic yet. This monster could very well turn north....the key will be when it makes the turn! And that's going to be determined by several factors in the steering currents, that aren't at all clear yet, for next week.

Keeping my fingers crossed that Isabel becomes a "fish-spinner"!

BTW, based on the historical track for storms that originate and track from the spot where Isabel formed, at this time of year, this storm will head north and not be a factor for the U.S.

 

[DocRafiki]

Now I'm starting to worry about this storm. I thought I wouldn't have to worry about hurricanes much after I moved here from St Pete. But now I'm going to be in France next week when this might land. My dogs will be in a kennel in Longwood, and my cats will be at my house. I'm going to have to rely on unreliable family members to evacuate them if needed. I don't know if my house OR the kennel are in flood zones. I had a flood zone map sent to my house in St Pete, but I haven't seen one here. Does anyone know where to find that info? This house looks like it has flooded before, but I don't know if that was from external water or internal. Argh... I'm having thoughts of canceling my trip and taking my pets out of here. I will feel SO much better if the storm starts to shift by Sunday.

 

[BarryHom]

Isabel is just scary. Last I heard, the hurricane had 160 mph winds. I think that puts it in par (or even above) Andrew.

 

[bsnyder]

Doc, where are you in Orlando?

I'll see if I can find some online info for you.

Also, everyone needs to keep in mind that it's virtually a certainty that Isabel will weaken. Hurricanes don't stay at Cat 5 intensity for very long.

 

[Dan Murphy]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...raf,0,4499104.graphic?coll=orl-home-headlines

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news...0303sep03,0,2850251.story?coll=orl-home-promo

 

[Miss Jasmine]

the latest:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 130843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
TO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF
THE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS...
ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.
THIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL
APPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST.

HIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE. THE CONSISTENT AND
GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE
GFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY
FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO
FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE
EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND
ISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE.

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA.

 

[bsnyder]

Thanks, Miss Jasmine, I was just coming to post the latest NHC discussion....

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA.

Good news for us here in Florida!! Go enjoy that trip to France, Jen!

Isabel has started her NW turn....let's just hope it's sharp enough that she misses the entire East coast!

 

[Rexfan]

I am worrying more and more about this one. A lot of people here still haven't gotten over the flooding from Floyd.