WDW Should Not Open in July. Discuss.

[kdonnel]

Can I ask what numbers you are using to calculate that percentage? Using official numbers (and rounding a little) we have 131k recorded deaths out of 2,800,000 recorded cases. Divide 131k by 2.8 million and you get 0.046 -that’s 5% not .05%.

Not the OP but here is the CDC's most recent guess at the case fatality ratio.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
Their best guess at the time was an overall CFR of .4% (The OP needs to move the decimal point one place unless they have a different source).

That .4% is heavily influenced by the 65+ CFR.

Age Range	Best Guess Case Fatality Ratio
0-49	.05%
50-64	.2%
65+	1.3%
Overall	.4%

There have been other studies done in other countries that peg the overall and age stratified numbers at half the CDC estimate.

The CDC document also shows their best guess as to case hospitalization ratio. That overall number is 3.4% but again heavily influenced by the 65+ 7.4% number.

Those numbers are why I feel safe going to Florida. Using the CDC numbers for my age bracket, if I were to catch Covid-19, I have a 99.95% chance of survival and a 98.3% chance I would not need to be hospitalized. Using my internal risk analysis I see an acceptable level of risk vs reward.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

We're going before the parks open, were fastidious hand-washers before CV19, wear masks everywhere when we are out (except in the pool!), and plan to eat our meals in our room. We'll be fine.

I suspect Walt Disney World will be one of the safer places to visit in Florida.

More than anything, we're looking forward to hanging out on the balcony every morning (we're early risers!) with a cup of coffee, knowing that we don't have to rush anywhere.

Imagine that, not rushing at Walt Disney World!!!

As long as you're not in a resort, indoor attraction or restaurant.

 

[dvcgirl67]

We're going before the parks open, were fastidious hand-washers before CV19, wear masks everywhere when we are out (except in the pool!), and plan to eat our meals in our room. We'll be fine.

I suspect Walt Disney World will be one of the safer places to visit in Florida.

More than anything, we're looking forward to hanging out on the balcony every morning (we're early risers!) with a cup of coffee, knowing that we don't have to rush anywhere.

Imagine that, not rushing at Walt Disney World!!!

It sounds like you have a plan. And yes, that sounds nice....not rushing to the park for rope-drop. There are silver linings to this pandemic. Indoor dining makes me a bit nervous personally. So be safe on that front, as much as you possibly can.

 

[TLSnell1981]

We're going before the parks open, were fastidious hand-washers before CV19, wear masks everywhere when we are out (except in the pool!), and plan to eat our meals in our room. We'll be fine.

I suspect Walt Disney World will be one of the safer places to visit in Florida.

More than anything, we're looking forward to hanging out on the balcony every morning (we're early risers!) with a cup of coffee, knowing that we don't have to rush anywhere.

Imagine that, not rushing at Walt Disney World!!!

It’s how I start my mornings at BWV. I love watching the boardwalk “come alive”.

 

[Nabas]

Indoor dining makes me a bit nervous personally.

Indoor or outdoor dining. Is there another kind?

 

[Nabas]

It’s how I start my mornings at BWV. I love watching the boardwalk “come alive”.

Our favorite mornings are at Jambo House, watching the giraffes walk by!

 

[kdonnel]

Indoor or outdoor dining. Is there another kind?

Underwater!

https://www.hurawalhi.com/dining/undersea-restaurant/

 

[WorldOfPooh]

Club Cool shut down with perfect timing.

 

[Cattrip]

That's great. I hope it stays that way. I worry that in areas with outbreaks that we're going to have spillover from the younger people to their older family members...etc.

We have been super vigilant in my immediate family. We are going to have my sister and family over next weekend for our first "physically distant outside BBQ". My niece's BD was yesterday and my nephew's BD is on July 5th, and we want to sit outside with them. We'll start with family and see how it goes....maybe have friends over from there. We were all set to have a series of friends over on weekends, but will admit that seeing this thing flare across the southern and western states gave me pause.

So...baby steps for now.

I feel bad-I won't even let my girls play with the neighborhood kids. They have been playing with each other and face timing friends.. I do worry about the impact on them, but I just can't. I feel like the neighborhood mean mom.

 

[disneychrista]

I feel bad-I won't even let my girls play with the neighborhood kids. They have been playing with each other and face timing friends.. I do worry about the impact on them, but I just can't. I feel like the neighborhood mean mom.

Be the mean mom. I’d be the same if my daughters were young.

 

[LSUmiss]

I understand your point. I just think that you can control more of your risk from home than on vacation. There are a lot more possibilities to come in contact with Covid carriers when you are away from home: housekeepers, food service, ride operators (ETA: CMs of all kinds), and other guests to name a few. Not to mention all the high-touch surfaces that cannot be kept perfectly clean and the amount of time spent "out and about" in a Covid hotspot instead of at home. I say that as someone who is not a germophobe, who has never wiped down their hotel room with Lysol wipes and who never used hand sanitizer until the last few months.

I guess it depends on the amount of activity one is doing now. I have ppl in my house working daily right now. I go out & run errands all day long. I dine out, shop, & go to salons. DH works outside the home & DS goes to camp. We wear masks & stay away from ppl as much as possible, but we all come in contact with a good amount of strangers every day. As far as high touch surfaces, I have always been somewhat of a germaphope. You can only get it if you touch the surfaces & touch your face. I never touch my face until I can wash my hands & I have been doing this way before Covid. Everyone has to assess their own level of risk. For my family, I can’t see how wdw is any different than our daily risk.

 

[mefordis]

Did you know that the numerical value of five percent is 0.05 ? We are saying the same thing. I rounded up as well.

What's interesting is this number would be way lower if everyone got tested. I, along with my doctor, am pretty sure my entire household had it but it was early in April and they were not testing low risk people. When you have a higher number of asymptomatic cases it reduced that death percentage.

It is also known that people under 45 years old have a nearly 0% of dying from covid-19.

 

[mefordis]

I'm guessing he's talking covid fatalities vs US population. If I do my math right, I think that comes out to .04%.

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,832,296
Deaths:
131,406

= 0.046% Rounding up it would be 0.05%.

 

[sam_gordon]

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,832,296
Deaths:
131,406

= 0.046% Rounding up it would be 0.05%.

Nope. 131406/2832296=0.04639 is true. But that's 4.6% You never multiplied by 100.

 

[kdonnel]

Nope. 131406/2832296=0.04639 is true. But that's 4.6% You never multiplied by 100.

The CDC says an overall CFR of .004 or .4%.

Goes along with the fact the CDC believes there are 10 times as many unknown cases as known cases.

 

[570traveler]

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,832,296
Deaths:
131,406

= 0.046% Rounding up it would be 0.05%.

Using those numbers it’s 4.6%
131,406 is 4.6% of 2,832,296

For example 5 is 5% of 100. You do 5/100 then times by 100 to get the percentage.

 

[okeydokey]

Can I ask what numbers you are using to calculate that percentage? Using official numbers (and rounding a little) we have 131k recorded deaths out of 2,800,000 recorded cases. Divide 131k by 2.8 million and you get 0.046 -that’s 5% not .05%.

She knows people who said so.

 

[mefordis]

Using those numbers it’s 4.6%
131,406 is 4.6% of 2,832,296

For example 5 is 5% of 100. You do 5/100 then times by 100 to get the percentage.

I rounded up but okay, less than 5% which isn't taking into account the many, many untested people this percentage even lower.

 

[mefordis]

She knows people who said so.

Correct.

 

[Colleen27]

And, imo, this is ok & allows us to keep the economy running & “live” with the virus. The point of closing was the flatten the curve so hospitals aren’t overwhelmed & ppl don’t die unnecessarily only b/c they can’t access care b/c there aren’t enough vents or whatever. If this trend continues, then it should be ok.

I think that logic has pretty much been abandoned, though. As soon as someone did the math on the death toll of that approach, "flattening the curve" gave way to containment or elimination. My state is rolling back the reopening over a slight uptick (about 200 per day more than our post-peak low) in cases and a relatively flat percent-positive, even though the hospitalization numbers aren't tracking upward the way they did in March/April. Now the goal is no community spread at all.

Hospitals in our area aren’t busy not just my sister’s. And since we had our peak in April, they were able to expand units so we can be ready to go if it surges again.

I think that's another important difference. In places that were already hard hit, lowered the rates, and are now seeing an uptick with reopening there's more preparation. I think the handful of states really getting slammed right now suffer from leadership that thought if they didn't get hit hard in March/April, they were somehow going to escape getting hard-hit at all. So they didn't use the time we all bought by staying home to increase capacity or otherwise prepare.

this is the difference - you're comparing two different things. Weighing the benefits to the risks, what will we choose?
1----- Work is essential, we all need to pay our bills,etc, so we MUST find a way to continue working as safely as possible (and then, staying away from others unless taking precautions, b/c the NECESSARY work means possible exposure and consequences)
2---- Play/travel etc is NOT ESSENTIAL. It is fun,and MANY of us love it,but it isn't an essential thing- not at all. I can take a day,relax somewhere near home. Is it as fun as a trip to WDW? NOPE. But a trip to WDW could bring so much damage to others I interact with in my life, that I can easily forgo it for a while.It's a LOT of chances being taken,for something that I don't really NEED.
That to me is the difference.

But we need non-essential spending to get people back to work, and it is impossible to ignore the pressure to do so now that the stimulus check is a distant memory, the unemployment supplement is coming to an end, and evictions are starting to get rolling again. The last forecast I saw said analysts are expecting 7 to 10 million households will be evicted as this year as a result of the pandemic - that's between 5 and 8% of all American households. Governments and companies are going to have to take the impact of continued closures into account as they move forward, or the human suffering will be catastrophic.