Waiting for DISNEYLAND HOTEL DVC Thread (see post 1 for updates)

[tidefan]

I love DLH and the monorail. The monorail is a HUGE VDH selling point, but I wish it was more consistent in it's operation. Until recently, Disney wouldn't run it past 7PM- which personally turned into a minor headache on a recent trip with my uncle who has mobility issues . Plus, it doesn't run in hotter weather (no AC aboard). I'm 100% positive VDH is going to be stunning, but it's physically in the farthest corner from the monorail station while still being on DLH property (or DL front gates for that matter when it's not running). I might still buy VDH points- I love the mid century vibe, hotel bar/Trader Sams, and pool/slides over GCH- but I almost view the DL monorail a little bit like a Blue Card DVC perk- it can be taken away (or come back) at any time with or without reason.

Well, I think we are splitting hairs when it comes to accessing the parks from any of the DLR hotels. They are all closer to both parks than say BLT and VGF are to the Magic Kingdom... (PP might be the same distance to DL, but I still think it's closer).

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I have, like probably many others following, decided I will buy this DVC.

I just wanted to relay some things on my personal fact finding (justification) mission. I love VGC, sometimes it really feels like DL hotel plays a distant second fiddle.

-The security gate is far more breezy than Grand Cal.
-The Pool is better at DL hotel and is expanding.
-It's never really considered as such, but DL hotel is a monorail hotel and Grand Cal really is not. Sure the latter has a private entrance to DCA, but supposedly its quite busy first thing and you are better off going to the main gate. The monorail is frequent service and strangely under-utilized or forgotten about in Disneyland. It's nothing like WDW, these things run frequently very empty AND drop you deep into Disneyland itself. You are still free to use the Grand Cal private entrance, but Grand Cal needs to backtrack significantly to reach the monorail. I'm usually all for walking, but it can be significantly faster to waltz through to the monorail when the main gate has lines at seemingly all hours.
-Not having a rooftop restaurant does seem like a missed opportunity, but in the same breath this hotel is strictly adjacent to DtD and the new section should be ready within a year of its opening. They sold me on Portico's already and I've been to Din Tai Fung and would recommend it highly.
-It ?probably, hopefully will have a *slightly* better points chart.

-I just learned apparently Paradise Pier Hotel has a walkway into DCA coming back, which is another highly convenient alternative access point.
-Plus, we can dream that in the lifespan of the contract one or both parks will expand towards it anyways.

We just finished a 9 day stay at VGC. We used the new Paradise Pier entrance and it's a game changer, especially for early entry. It has also greatly alleviated the congestion at the Redwood Creek DCA entrance. I can't speak for DLH pools. The monorail was down pretty much everyday we were there, sometimes for half the day. I too am super excited for Portos and Din Tai Fung. But with the addition of 5-6 million points, I can only imagine the crowds at those new establishments. Not having a rooftop restaurant, and just a lack of dining in general is a HUGE miss for VDH. And as for the points chart, I have no reason to believe it will be cheaper than VGC. If anything, I think it will be higher because VDH will be almost 15 years newer than VGC when it opens. Newer resorts mean higher points charts, evidenced by Riviera. IMO, WDW resorts like BCV and BWV are far superior than Riviera and yet, those resorts points charts are drastically cheaper than Riviera.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I love DLH and the monorail. The monorail is a HUGE VDH selling point, but I wish it was more consistent in it's operation. Until recently, Disney wouldn't run it past 7PM- which personally turned into a minor headache on a recent trip with my uncle who has mobility issues . Plus, it doesn't run in hotter weather (no AC aboard). I'm 100% positive VDH is going to be stunning, but it's physically in the farthest corner from the monorail station while still being on DLH property (or DL front gates for that matter when it's not running). I might still buy VDH points- I love the mid century vibe, hotel bar/Trader Sams, and pool/slides over GCH- but I almost view the DL monorail a little bit like a Blue Card DVC perk- it can be taken away (or come back) at any time with or without reason.

sigh.... Trader Sams.....

 

[KTownRaider]

sigh.... Trader Sams.....

What can I say? I love Polynesian Tiki culture (or Disney's interpretation of it )!

 

[ehh]

We just finished a 9 day stay at VGC. We used the new Paradise Pier entrance and it's a game changer, especially for early entry. It has also greatly alleviated the congestion at the Redwood Creek DCA entrance. I can't speak for DLH pools. The monorail was down pretty much everyday we were there, sometimes for half the day. I too am super excited for Portos and Din Tai Fung. But with the addition of 5-6 million points, I can only imagine the crowds at those new establishments. Not having a rooftop restaurant, and just a lack of dining in general is a HUGE miss for VDH. And as for the points chart, I have no reason to believe it will be cheaper than VGC. If anything, I think it will be higher because VDH will be almost 15 years newer than VGC when it opens. Newer resorts mean higher points charts, evidenced by Riviera. IMO, WDW resorts like BCV and BWV are far superior than Riviera and yet, those resorts points charts are drastically cheaper than Riviera.

Well good news, VDH will be around 2.7mil points (if the average point chart will be the same as VGC...some views will surely be higher, some also probably lower), not 5-6mil.

But I agree, the existing establishments in the area will have occasional struggles serving a 4th tower.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Well good news, VDH will be around 2.7mil points (if the average point chart will be the same as VGC...some views will surely be higher, some also probably lower), not 5-6mil.

But I agree, the existing establishments in the area will have occasional struggles serving a 4th tower.

where did you hear of the 2.7 million points?

 

[ehh]

where did you hear of the 2.7 million points?

The public filings include the number of rooms: 253 dedicated studios, 38 pods (tower studios), 20 dedicated 2-bedrooms, 18/19 lock-off 2-bedrooms, 0/1 dedicated 1-bedrooms, and 2 grand villas.

We know the number of days/nights in a year.

We can use the VGC points chart as an approximation, additionally estimating that pods coming in at ~80% the points of studios (based on Riviera), for the points per night.

Multiply all the rooms times all the nights times the points per room per night and it comes out to 2.7mil total points.

A heavier points chart than VGC would obviosuly mean more points.

n.b., the public listing is a little unclear about the number of lock-off 2BR and dedicated 1BR. It lists 19 LO 2BR and 0 Ded 1BR, but that would add up to 351 rooms when they also declare 350 max rooms. There's also clearly a dedicated 1BR on one of the lower floors in the plans.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The public filings include the number of rooms: 253 dedicated studios, 38 pods (tower studios), 20 dedicated 2-bedrooms, 18/19 lock-off 2-bedrooms, 0/1 dedicated 1-bedrooms, and 2 grand villas.

We know the number of days/nights in a year.

We can use the VGC points chart as an approximation, additionally estimating that pods coming in at ~80% the points of studios (based on Riviera), for the points per night.

Multiply all the rooms times all the nights times the points per room per night and it comes out to 2.7mil total points.

A heavier points chart than VGC would obviosuly mean more points.

n.b., the public listing is a little unclear about the number of lock-off 2BR and dedicated 1BR. It lists 19 LO 2BR and 0 Ded 1BR, but that would add up to 351 rooms when they also declare 350 max rooms. There's also clearly a dedicated 1BR on one of the lower floors in the plans.

I can't refute that. Well played.

 

[nlenguyen]

I can only hope that the point charts are better than Riveria

 

[nlenguyen]

I wonder how many people will be looking to buy large contracts. We're East Coasters, so we're only planning to buy a small add-on contract so we can visit once every three years.

I am from Arizona, and I want maybe 75 points. Enough to get 3 to 4 nights a year or upgrade to a 2 bedroom a few nights every couple years

 

[BrianLo]

I love DLH and the monorail. The monorail is a HUGE VDH selling point, but I wish it was more consistent in it's operation. Until recently, Disney wouldn't run it past 7PM- which personally turned into a minor headache on a recent trip with my uncle who has mobility issues . Plus, it doesn't run in hotter weather (no AC aboard). I'm 100% positive VDH is going to be stunning, but it's physically in the farthest corner from the monorail station while still being on DLH property (or DL front gates for that matter when it's not running). I might still buy VDH points- I love the mid century vibe, hotel bar/Trader Sams, and pool/slides over GCH- but I almost view the DL monorail a little bit like a Blue Card DVC perk- it can be taken away (or come back) at any time with or without reason.

Fair point! It was running up until 30 minutes before park closing for me so I thought nothing of it. Definitely I can see for some if you are expecting it, it would be disappointing.

 

[NorCalDisFan]

I just compared DLH's pe right price to GCH's on a certain date in the homepage and DLH is 20 % cheaper than GCH. Given that VDH is newer and more luxurious than DLH, VDH's per night price could be 20% higher than DLH's, and then there's no reason VDH direct price is lower than VGC's?? I'm just worried.

 

[ehh]

I just compared DLH's pe right price to GCH's on a certain date in the homepage and DLH is 20 % cheaper than GCH. Given that VDH is newer and more luxurious than DLH, VDH's per night price could be 20% higher than DLH's, and then there's no reason VDH direct price is lower than VGC's?? I'm just worried.

Cash prices per night tend to be most reflected in the points chart, not the upfront cost/point.

Upfront cost/point for non-sold out resorts increases steadily over time (recently once per year in Jan/Feb). Currently it's $207 before incentives and will probably be $214-220 by the time VDH goes on sale. Note that this is just the baseline price and there are often resort-specific incentives that lower this price. Even VGC once had strong incentives prior to selling out.

VGC is $310/pt from Disney because demand far outweighs the 'sold out' supply, which is very limited. Disney probably has their hands on <10,000 sellable VGC points currently (probably fewer than 1,000, actually). VDH will have around 2.7mil for sale, depending on the points chart. It's extremely likely VDH will have standard upfront costs/point, not VGC-level cost/point. VDH will probably even have good incentives.

 

[Royal Consort]

I just compared DLH's pe right price to GCH's on a certain date in the homepage and DLH is 20 % cheaper than GCH. Given that VDH is newer and more luxurious than DLH, VDH's per night price could be 20% higher than DLH's, and then there's no reason VDH direct price is lower than VGC's?? I'm just worried.

They need to sell this thing. If its priced through the stratosphere no one will open their wallet. People thought VGF2 was going to be over 255 pp and even at 207 Riviera outsold it two months in a row.

The reason VCG is so expensive is because a) it is the flagship with a monumental cash price b) it is super small.

VDH will be sold directly in line (maybe slightly higher) with DVC's other offerings. I also don't think it's more luxurious than DLH. The views and position of this tower are poor. It will have a chart reflective of it being the resort's second tier hotel (except pool view, I think they will be pointy)

 

[NVDISFamily]

Figured it was a good time to update this to help with our analysis -

2BR Suite Weekly (Rack Rates)	Disneyland Hotel	Grand Cal	Grand Cal VS DLH % Delta
April High	11,346.66	17,290.26	52.38%
April Low	10,366.20	15,322.32	47.81%
	VDH Point Cost (Estimated)	VGC Points
DVC Point Cost	190	255	34.21%
Updated	9/17/22

Rack rate compare of similar rooms Grand Cal vs DLH. Analysis of April high (early - peak spring break) vs April low (after peak spring break).

 

[ehh]

Figured it was a good time to update this to help with our analysis -

2BR Suite Weekly (Rack Rates)	Disneyland Hotel	Grand Cal	Grand Cal VS DLH % Delta
April High	11,346.66	17,290.26	52.38%
April Low	10,366.20	15,322.32	47.81%
	VDH Point Cost (Estimated)	VGC Points
DVC Point Cost	190	255	34.21%
Updated	9/17/22

Rack rate compare of similar rooms Grand Cal vs DLH. Analysis of April high (early - peak spring break) vs April low (after peak spring break).

I like where this is going and think it would be good to add in add standard hotel rooms for a more diverse set of data. I'll ignore the 1-of-1 suites as those can go for 10k/night after tax

Peak season (highest on VGC calendar):

Hotel room, 4/9/23 - 4/16/23, by view	Disneyland Hotel	Grand Californian Hotel	GCH Premium
Standard view	5136.30	6535.62	27.2%
Woods-courtyard view		6751.41	[no matching view]
Partial view		7265.70	[no matching view]
Downtown Disney view		7658.82	VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD: 20.3%
Pool view		7837.83	Max vs. max: 23.1%; VGPool vs. DLPremium: 31.8%; VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 38.4%
Deluxe view (view of pool)	5663.97		VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 38.4%
Premium view (view of pool)	5947.11		VGPool vs. DLPremium: 31.8%
Premium Downtown Disney view	6364.80		VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD: 20.3%; Max vs. max: 23.1%
			Typical premium: ~26% (not counting Pool vs. Deluxe)

Lower season (2nd lowest on VGC calendar)

Hotel room, 5/7/23 - 5/14/23, by view	Disneyland Hotel	Grand Californian Hotel	GCH Premium
Standard view	4312.62	5507.19	27.7%
Woods-courtyard view		5854.68	[no matching view]
Partial view		6334.38	[no matching view]
Downtown Disney view		6635.07	VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD:24.7%
Pool view		6867.90	Max vs. max: 29.1%; VGPool vs. DLPremium: 37.6%; VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 45.8%
Deluxe view (view of pool)	4710.42		VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 45.8%
Premium view (view of pool)	4992.39		VGPool vs. DLPremium: 37.6%
Premium Downtown Disney view	5318.82		VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD: 24.7%; Max vs. max: 29.1%
			Typical premium: ~30% (not counting Pool vs. Deluxe)

Lower rack rates make a good argument that VDH will have a lower points chart, on average, than VGC. Though I'd be doubtful of VGC maintaining a 25-30% premium, which would put VDH just above BCV/BRV/CCV. Something like the BLT-RVA range, with a variety of views, feels more right to me, but I am definitely guessing.

VGC already has a pretty heavy points chart, too, so there is wiggle room below. Comparison of all resorts:

Average weeks by resort:	Studio	1 Bedroom	2 Bedroom
AUL	172.7	333.0	457.7
VGF	167.8 (156.9 pre-VGF2)	328.7	449.9
VGC	164.6	323.6	444.4
Poly	157.7	-	-
RVA	155.1 (excluding Tower Studios)	327.9	421.9
BLT	141.2	273.0	373.5
VBR	132.9	218.0	292.3
BCV	121.7	247.7	320.8
BRV	121.5	247.2	320.6
CCV	121.2	247.5	320.3
BWV	118.7	240.5	308.9
SSR	106.7	220.3	286.6
HHI	100.5	197.2	248.5
OKW	93.7	197.2	269.4

(all numbers above are properly weighted by the count of rooms in the view category and number of nights in each points season)

 

[NVDISFamily]

I like where this is going and think it would be good to add in add standard hotel rooms for a more diverse set of data. I'll ignore the 1-of-1 suites as those can go for 10k/night after tax

Love your chart. We are more of a 2BR family (goals at least) and that's what I ran the numbers on when I did my buy/don't buy calculations to purchase DVC (with VGC being our first target). The "value" for DVC is actually way better if you want those nicer 2BR suites and such as yes, the rack rates for them are crazy.

Based on your numbers and mine it seems like a reasonable price per point and a somewhat Riviera like point chart would make it kind of a wash VGC vs VDH. I think many will jump on VDH to have some points at Disneyland Resort. The point chart on the GVs and the 2BRs is what will sell me. If I can get enough points for 4 nights in a GV every other year for not too much cash.... I'll be tempted.

 

[thelittledipster]

How does it work for people who don’t own at VDH who want to book there, right when it opens? Will they give owners there an 11 month window to start booking ahead of the opening date?

In theory, shouldn’t it be easier for non owners to book here when it’s brand new and should be fairly open in terms of availability?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

How does it work for people who don’t own at VDH who want to book there, right when it opens? Will they give owners there an 11 month window to start booking ahead of the opening date?

In theory, shouldn’t it be easier for non owners to book here when it’s brand new and should be fairly open in terms of availability?

Other resorts gave owners a couple of weeks or a few months booking advantage. Similar to Riviera, I’m guessing DVD will declare more rooms than contracts sold to help promote sales? I don’t know. I think it will depend on the demand. I can’t wait to find out!

 

[CarolynFH]

How does it work for people who don’t own at VDH who want to book there, right when it opens? Will they give owners there an 11 month window to start booking ahead of the opening date?

In theory, shouldn’t it be easier for non owners to book here when it’s brand new and should be fairly open in terms of availability?

As above, normally when a new resort opens, DVC gives owners there a priority booking period before reservations open up to non-owners.

And yes, it's usually at least somewhat easier to book when a new resort is in active sales, because DVD will declare enough villas into the condominium association that more villas are available for DVC reservations than there are owners. And if there's no availability for your dates, just set a waitlist, because when DVD declares more villas into the association, that creates availability and allows your waitlist to fill!