Villains expansion changed to 5th gate possibly?

[Liljo22]

The "+" is a another $6B. Just a little creative bookkeeping, right?

Just a little bit. I took the + as falling between $1 Billion and $2 Billion not $7 Billion.

 

[FastPasser.]

There is no insider information here. My primary point is that as someone who has followed the parks closely for 20+ years, the idea of a 5th gate seems to jive more with Disney's philosophies today than at any other time in recent memory.

As a former insider for over 20 years the topic of a 5th park was never mentioned at any of the hundreds of meetings I attended. The only time I heard about a 5th park was on the WDW forums and from the real WDW experts, aka the bloggers and vloggers.

 

[BrianL]

Just a little bit. I took the + as falling between $1 Billion and $2 Billion not $7 Billion.

And the crazy thing is that's about 6 billion bucks more in screens alone!

 

[sachilles]

Ultimately, where would you put the hypothetical 5th gate? Villains sounds like a great idea. I think I like that idea.

My apologies, this is a bit scattershot.

I think a 5th gate might not be so much of a "gate". I think villains would support an after hours area similar to what Disney springs was before that redevelopment. Use a different model. Open later hours, no gate fee. Mostly food, beverage and entertainment. Have a few E-tickets that are pay only access. Have it adjacent to an existing gate or maybe disney springs. Think something akin to Disneyland and DCA proximity. Allowing transportation infrastructure to be shared.
Other concepts, very limited access. Keep it small on purpose, and limit attendance to an artificially low amount. Think Galactic Star cruiser without lodging.

One would think after all this time, Disney would have a lot they've learned before building a new traditional sized gate. Integrated lodging from the start, more efficient transportation. Taller foot prints. Weather isolation. Modular rides allowing to reduce ride capacity and energy consumption on slow times. Centralized kitchens.

One thing they don't need to do is pump out some generic small park or land akin to chester and hesters.

 

[wkrainey]

Rumors about Villians being the theme of a 5th park have been around for at least 15yrs. I remember hearing these when I was a CP back in 08. Even the rumor of a 5th park due to the RCID isn't a sure thing, it just gives Disney a free hand for the next 10yrs to get one sorted if they want to. The realities are it's just cheaper for Disney to add onto existing parks vs building new. That's before you look at the staffing issues they'll run into with a new park. Look at Magic Kingdom, that park still has at least 3 areas for expansion they can do without needing to rework wetlands. Epcot has plenty of space to expand just in it's parking lot. Hollywood Studios has room to build. Several existing lands need remodeling as is. I would love the rumor to be true, but I don't see it happening.

 

[serenitynow]

As a former insider for over 20 years the topic of a 5th park was never mentioned at any of the hundreds of meetings I attended. The only time I heard about a 5th park was on the WDW forums and from the real WDW experts, aka the bloggers and vloggers.

You forgot about the bus drivers!

 

[fatmanatee]

A comment from someone who has a bit of insight on these matters:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643315391664640000

 

[wkrainey]

Agree the typical guest would probably not extend their trip for another park. In my mind, the question is what's the most effective long-term solution for WDW to continue improving attendance. Likely thru the addition of new visitors.

In 2015, the four parks had combined attendance of 51.4 million. By 2019 it was up to 57.8 million. While there is SPACE to continue building at the existing parks, I don't think that space is unlimited. They've certainly picked-off the low hanging fruit over the last 10 years.

Assuming Disney wants attendance to grow by another 10-15% in the next few years, can you realistically accomplish that by just adding a couple new attractions each to EP and HS, or do you reach a point where you're treading water as some guests grow weary of what those parks have morphed into?

Honestly, yes you can easily add much more to each of those parks. As a total dork who spends their free time at work staring at Google Maps and measuring out the available space for rides etc (I'm not joking when I say my dream is to recreate WDW into a CAD program so I can play imagineer).

Magic Kingdom has all the space around the existing park and World Dr/Florida Way, that they can easily expand into.


Epcot has the unrealized Countries, Cast Member Parking, and it's whole parking complex it can tap into (all they have to do is build parking garages at the TTC and parking is solved.

Hollywood Studios has it's entire parking lot. Plus a ton of space behind Voyage of the Little Mermaid.

Animal Kingdom, basically has endless space.

 

[New Mouse]

Honestly, yes you can easily add much more to each of those parks. As a total dork who spends their free time at work staring at Google Maps and measuring out the available space for rides etc (I'm not joking when I say my dream is to recreate WDW into a CAD program so I can play imagineer).

Magic Kingdom has all the space around the existing park and World Dr/Florida Way, that they can easily expand into.


Epcot has the unrealized Countries, Cast Member Parking, and it's whole parking complex it can tap into (all they have to do is build parking garages at the TTC and parking is solved.

Hollywood Studios has it's entire parking lot. Plus a ton of space behind Voyage of the Little Mermaid.

Animal Kingdom, basically has endless space.

To this point, the hidden themes and back stage site lines have gone out the window, so all one has to do is look at. Dollywood to see how much space there is for new attractions across wdw.

 

[bryaalre]

Just a little bit. I took the + as falling between $1 Billion and $2 Billion not $7 Billion.

While there is not an exact amount that Comcast has stated Epic Universe would cost, they have stated what most of Epic Universe's Capex will be during their earnings calls.

I've done prior research about it and this is what they have said on prior calls. There are not any numbers for money spent on Epic universe prior to 2022 but Comcast said it spent around $800 Million in 2022. They don't give a hard number for Epic Universe Capex in 2023 but state that Capex at their parks will increase $1.2B in 2023 vs 2022 and the majority due to Epic Universe. This would mean that they expect about $1.7-$2B in 2023. The call also states that 2023 and 2024 will be comparable in spending for Epic Universe and will be the peak spend.

So Comcast has come out and said 2022-2024 totals about $4.5B-$5B. My assumption is that there were probably around $500M in expenses prior to 2022 and we will have to wait and see what they say about 2025 but I would think at least $1B in 2025.

With all of this, it would seem Epic Universe may cost anywhere from $6B-$7B.

 

[bmr1591]

Whatever they do, I wouldn’t get your hopes on any announcements until Expo in 2023. They may begin clearing land and preparing before that, but with projects across the world concluding in the next year and a half, they giving a firm launch date for Tiana’s will transition perfectly into ‘what’s next’.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Ultimately, where would you put the hypothetical 5th gate? Villains sounds like a great idea. I think I like that idea.

It depends on how much additional land development and infrastructure work they have to do to build it. Basically anything lime green or red on the map below could be considered for a possible Park addition.

Anything that’s dark green would take extensive work just to make suitable for construction, and most of that land has been currently designated for conservation as it stands.

 

[sachilles]

I would think adjacent to the TTC parking lot, between the TTC and the Fort would be the ideal spot for a stand alone park(if it ever happens). Proximity to the Monorail, already existing transportation infrastructure. Wilderness lodge, Fort Wilderness and a building pad for another resort where delayed/cancelled DVC lake side resort was to go.

 

[sachilles]

Of course a part of me thinks that the old discovery island could be an amazing Villains lair. Limited size for exclusivity. Small enough that you could do limited hours/dates.

 

[wkrainey]

Ultimately, where would you put the hypothetical 5th gate? Villains sounds like a great idea. I think I like that idea.

My apologies, this is a bit scattershot.

I think a 5th gate might not be so much of a "gate". I think villains would support an after hours area similar to what Disney springs was before that redevelopment. Use a different model. Open later hours, no gate fee. Mostly food, beverage and entertainment. Have a few E-tickets that are pay only access. Have it adjacent to an existing gate or maybe disney springs. Think something akin to Disneyland and DCA proximity. Allowing transportation infrastructure to be shared.
Other concepts, very limited access. Keep it small on purpose, and limit attendance to an artificially low amount. Think Galactic Star cruiser without lodging.

One would think after all this time, Disney would have a lot they've learned before building a new traditional sized gate. Integrated lodging from the start, more efficient transportation. Taller foot prints. Weather isolation. Modular rides allowing to reduce ride capacity and energy consumption on slow times. Centralized kitchens.

One thing they don't need to do is pump out some generic small park or land akin to chester and hesters.

Disney isn't got to go taller. They'll stay under the 200 foot limit for buildings. Also, Pleasure Island was a ghost town before the end. I worked it 07-08, by my estimates it hemorrhaged between 10-30k a night just to staff the place. Disney isn't going to go back to that concept. I could see them doing an area of a park that has it's own entrance for Nighttime events as a separate ticketed area.

IF Disney did a 5th park, they've options. They could remove the golf courses and build next to Shades of Green/TTC, this would be an easy extension of the Monorail if they wanted. The area North of Coronado Springs is available with hotel access from that hotel.. They could build across from Epcot, and have direct access to Port Orleans and Wilderness Lodge, as well as access to the Monorail if they wanted.

I personally don't think centralized Kitchens are a key to success. They have eating areas that are centralized already and the food is basic fast food. Good food doesn't come from a centralized kitchen.

I don't see the advantage of having integrated lodging. It doesn't add to the experience in my opinion.

What do you mean by weather isolation and modular rides?

 

[sachilles]

Disney isn't got to go taller. They'll stay under the 200 foot limit for buildings. Also, Pleasure Island was a ghost town before the end. I worked it 07-08, by my estimates it hemorrhaged between 10-30k a night just to staff the place. Disney isn't going to go back to that concept. I could see them doing an area of a park that has it's own entrance for Nighttime events as a separate ticketed area.

IF Disney did a 5th park, they've options. They could remove the golf courses and build next to Shades of Green/TTC, this would be an easy extension of the Monorail if they wanted. The area North of Coronado Springs is available with hotel access from that hotel.. They could build across from Epcot, and have direct access to Port Orleans and Wilderness Lodge, as well as access to the Monorail if they wanted.

I personally don't think centralized Kitchens are a key to success. They have eating areas that are centralized already and the food is basic fast food. Good food doesn't come from a centralized kitchen.

I don't see the advantage of having integrated lodging. It doesn't add to the experience in my opinion.

What do you mean by weather isolation and modular rides?

Weather isolation=Build in such a way that you can operate in all weather conditions. Shade, indoors, rain storm friendly etc. Build in such a way that it's still desirable in extreme heat, or foul weather. I'm saying that everything needs to be inside, just that there needs to be balance. For example, when Toy Story land was built, it had very little shade or shelter from rain. They ultimately added queue umbrellas and sun shades as an after thought.

Modular rides=Think space mountain. One track can operate while the other is closed. When slow they can operate just one side, and save some money. Soarin' has three theaters, they need not operate all of them at once. It also allows for technical problems to only shut down part of the attraction, allowing it to still move people through even at a reduced rate.

Integrated lodging doesn't add to YOUR experience. That is fair. However, for most, walking out of lobby into a park is a premium experience. Eliminating a monorail, boat, skyliner or bus may not add to your experience, but it does save money that could be spent elsewhere. All of the florida deluxe resorts have some sort of premium access to a park or disney springs. (though animal kingdom lodge bus access is not exactly premium, you do have animals in your back yard).

Centralized kitchens doesn't have to mean one kitchen pumping out generic food. It may simply mean common pantries and other resources. It's quite obvious that the available kitchen space at least in Magic Kingdom is not up to the number of people that enter the park daily. They do a fantastic job with what they have, but it does limit options to make things more efficient.

I admit my point was a bit scattered. What I'm suggesting is that Disney has the ability to make a good, but small and efficient 5th gate. Especially if they had no intention to grow it. Much of disney's pain is from growth over the ages, and trying to cram things in after the fact. They've learned these things over time. Regrettably, budget cuts and second thoughts often neuter the end result. I suggest they have found their may be a sweet spot and that bigger isn't always better and that expanding existing things is not always the correct answer.

 

[maverik85]

My gut reaction is still no fifth park, but Iger's comments at the shareholder's meeting could point to one possible.
He stated that they plan to invest $17 billion in Disney World over the next 10 years, and that the investment will create around 13,000 new jobs at Disney alone. This is ample money for a 5th gate (which would likely cost around $6-7 billion), new hotels, and additions/upgrades to existing parks. Also, 13,000 is about the number of staff needed to run one of their parks. So these numbers all fit for a potential 5th gate.

 

[HopperFan]

Ultimately, where would you put the hypothetical 5th gate? Villains sounds like a great idea. I think I like that idea.

My apologies, this is a bit scattershot.

I think a 5th gate might not be so much of a "gate". I think villains would support an after hours area similar to what Disney springs was before that redevelopment. Use a different model. Open later hours, no gate fee. Mostly food, beverage and entertainment. Have a few E-tickets that are pay only access. Have it adjacent to an existing gate or maybe disney springs. Think something akin to Disneyland and DCA proximity. Allowing transportation infrastructure to be shared.
Other concepts, very limited access. Keep it small on purpose, and limit attendance to an artificially low amount. Think Galactic Star cruiser without lodging.

I think you might have something. But I would say it does have an admission fee much like Pleasure Island did. It keeps out the looky loos. And if we are going to get a quality product, with the possibility of characters and good entertainment, there needs to be a cover charge. Would it be my first choice? NO, because I think it will be packed with locals. I'd rather it be it's own land in an existing park ~ unless Disney can imagineer a cohesive 5th gate where it will fit. I'm not sure they can.

My gut reaction is still no fifth park, but Iger's comments at the shareholder's meeting could point to one possible.
He stated that they plan to invest $17 billion in Disney World over the next 10 years, and that the investment will create around 13,000 new jobs at Disney alone. This is ample money for a 5th gate (which would likely cost around $6-7 billion), new hotels, and additions/upgrades to existing parks. Also, 13,000 is about the number of staff needed to run one of their parks. So these numbers all fit for a potential 5th gate.

My gut agrees with yours .... but I think the numbers he put out are giving feet to the story because can any of us come up with that much spending in 10 years, unless it really does include the Nona campus, more hotels and DVC etc or a 5th park? "Walt Disney World" is so much more than theme parks so who knows what was between the lines.

But I know some argue you need more than 13,000 for a park alone, BUT I don't think those numbers include the Disney College Program. With the new housing not only is the internship more desirable but the program has grown. I believe it has a capacity of 11,000 per session. That is lots of extra bodies, especially since they often work more than fulltime hours (no benefits risk to Disney). Could part of the expansion be building more DCP housing? They are a great perk for Disney.

He sure laid a big egg out there and folks are going to run all over the place with ideas.

 

[ttintagel]

All-villains is just as silly an idea as all-heroes would be. The story's pretty dull if you don't have both together.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I do not believe we will see a Fifth gate. Was just thinking what better legacy for Mr Iger than to have the ground breaking ceremony just before he is forced to retire.