VGT for Xmas?

[DCLMP]

The last major recession in 2008? Yes I was alive (though I was pretty young- mid 20s). DCL only had two ships with a maximum capacity total for both ships of 5000 passengers in 2008. With one ship doing longer 7 nights, and one shorter DCL only trying to fill 7,500 spots each week. Even doing the back of the napkin math for 2019 discount you found (thanks for that BTW). It is a big leap from filling 4 ships (2 of which hold 2,500 passengers per sailing) to 8 ships (2 at 2,500, 1 at 6,700, & 5 at 4,000 per sailing)

Cruise ships are not exactly like hotels when you can just take certain buildings or rooms out of inventory and not staff. And there are rising costs to just operating right now. Disney is a pretty big company so I’m sure it will be fine in the long run, but I do worry that they will start making cuts where they can to save money (things like nightly turned down service to cut down on the number of stateroom hosts working, fewer activities during the day so fewer entertainment CMs, things like that).

DCL does not have the additional income stream of a casino like most cruise lines. They don’t have add on dining packages and limited add on dining at all (and no drink packages or the ability to sell private flow rider lessons or waterpark coco cay passes).

I know you personally do not like that I’m keeping an eye on DCL’s bottom line or how much profit they’re making, but I am aware that if DCL becomes a less profitable product that they will find a way to make cuts to make it more profitable and guests might lose out on the stellar DCL service that we are used to. I also assume you love to debate me because if I post anything in a thread you are quick to reply to me and offer your opposite opinion which is what is nice about a debate on a forum like this.

If we go into a major recession DCL will be the last thing you’ll have to worry. about.
You seem hell bent on proving that these discounts are something new. That is easily disputed. DCL did not lose their as you put it stellar service during the Great Recession. They made cuts to perks for cc members. The service has remained the same.

I’m not sure why you can’t wrap your head around the fact that prices are too high. Bubbles burst 100% of the time.

 

[dreamer17555]

If we go into a major recession DCL will be the last thing you’ll have to worry. about.
You seem hell bent on proving that these discounts are something new. That is easily disputed. DCL did not lose their as you put it stellar service during the Great Recession. They made cuts to perks for cc members. The service has remained the same.

I’m not sure why you can’t wrap your head around the fact that prices are too high. Bubbles burst 100% of the time.

I appreciate the fact that you can accurately predict how company will handle things in the future. I have seen the quality of service slip dramatically at WDW and would like to avoid that at DCL but I appreciate that you clearly have much better insight than I do that the company will weather any setbacks without cutting a thing. I was under the impression that DCL had already previously cut services like an optional sitdown option for dinner located at the buffet? Perhaps I was wrong...

I do think that these discounts are unusual for DCL since the covid restart and might be a sign that DCL is not doing well as it was previously but I am happy to know I am wrong and that DCL is still making as much profit as they were and has in no way expanded too rapidly.

 

[DCLMP]

I appreciate the fact that you can accurately predict how company will handle things in the future. I have seen the quality of service slip dramatically at WDW and would like to avoid that at DCL but I appreciate that you clearly have much better insight than I do that the company will weather any setbacks without cutting a thing. I was under the impression that DCL had already previously cut services like an optional sitdown option for dinner located at the buffet? Perhaps I was wrong...

I do think that these discounts are unusual for DCL since the covid restart and might be a sign that DCL is not doing well as it was previously but I am happy to know I am wrong and that DCL is still making as much profit as they were and has in no way expanded too rapidly.

I would prepare yourself mentally for DCl and the economy as a whole to not do as well as you think it is. You can’t seperate DCL from what’s happened over the last few years. DCL is just one of many companies that are going to feel it.

 

[dreamer17555]

I would prepare yourself mentally for DCl and the economy as a whole to not do as well as you think it is. You can’t seperate DCL from what’s happened over the last few years. DCL is just one of many companies that are going to feel it.

I'm aware of the economy. I'm aware that impacts will not be relagated to a single company or a division of a company. I do think we are seeing a downturn that is sounding alarm bells but you have stated that DCL has been fine previously and will not be cutting any services to try to lessen any economic downturn and stay more profitable. I'm assuming you can't be overly worried if you are certain that there will be no cuts to services on a rapidly expanding cruise line. Even considering they have limited additional revenue streams on their ships?

Either the economy is in trouble and DCL is also in trouble or everything is fine? I am confused to which one you think is happening...

 

[Amunet]

Just popping in to say that my first DCL cruise was 2012 because prices were still quite low due to 2008. And prices remained manageable until Covid. 2018 I was on a WBTA with DCL and for 2 people, lowest inside category, about a week after opening day pricing, it was $2,800. Thats 11 nights. Now, prices are double to triple for opening day pricing.
After Covid, I couldn't afford to go on DCL due to such inflated pricing across the board. Now im on the Adventure only because its low cost and I live in Japan, which is also more affordable flights.

DCL has altered prices to reflect economic change, even in decrease of pricing. Unfortunately, they also do so the opposite way but as a business that is expected.

 

[DCLMP]

I'm aware of the economy. I'm aware that impacts will not be relagated to a single company or a division of a company. I do think we are seeing a downturn that is sounding alarm bells but you have stated that DCL has been fine previously and will not be cutting any services to try to lessen any economic downturn and stay more profitable. I'm assuming you can't be overly worried if you are certain that there will be no cuts to services on a rapidly expanding cruise line. Even considering they have limited additional revenue streams on their ships?

Either the economy is in trouble and DCL is also in trouble or everything is fine? I am confused to which one you think is happening...

I’m worried about the majority of Americans that are living paycheck to paycheck. I worry about the people losing jobs. I am not worried about DCL cutting prices or going out of business. I’ve been posting for three years on this forum where we are headed. This isn’t a sudden downturn.
I’m looking forward to taking advantage of the discounts.

 

[dreamer17555]

I’m worried about the majority of Americans that are living paycheck to paycheck. I worry about the people losing jobs. I am not worried about DCL cutting prices or going out of business. I’ve been posting for three years on this forum where we are headed. This isn’t a sudden downturn.
I’m looking forward to taking advantage of the discounts.

Something to keep in mind is that a lot of people have their retirements tied up in 401(k) so stock for a company like Disney goes down it can have a lots of ripples. This isn’t something where a single big bad CEO is going to be the only one impacted.

DCL is likely going to try to do whatever they can to stay as profitable as they can, which likely means cutting services (and jobs) if there is a large economic downturn. Those discounts you are excited about? They are not going to come out of thin air. DCL is not going to eat a big loss without trying to reduce costs however they can, especially when parks and cruising have been one of the major money makers for the company over the last few years as streaming has been a real problem area for them.

I find it a little disingenuous that you keep stating that they will not cut any services when you have complained a number of times on this forum about services that have been cut over the years on DCL.

But you just said a few posts that everything is fine. These discounts are normal. DCL is fine. They will not cut services and have never cut services (except for Castaway perks)... I see things differently but thats okay.

 

[DCLMP]

Just popping in to say that my first DCL cruise was 2012 because prices were still quite low due to 2008. And prices remained manageable until Covid. 2018 I was on a WBTA with DCL and for 2 people, lowest inside category, about a week after opening day pricing, it was $2,800. Thats 11 nights. Now, prices are double to triple for opening day pricing.
After Covid, I couldn't afford to go on DCL due to such inflated pricing across the board. Now im on the Adventure only because its low cost and I live in Japan, which is also more affordable flights.

DCL has altered prices to reflect economic change, even in decrease of pricing. Unfortunately, they also do so the opposite way but as a business that is expected.

Even if we go into a bad recession there will be enough people that can afford DCL probably even more at the lower price point. They may even gain some longtime loyalists. We started going to WDW and cruising DCL in 2010. The prices the last few years are exactly as you said overinflated. Disney is adjusting to the market.

 

[Scalemaster34]

I would prepare yourself mentally for DCl and the economy as a whole to not do as well as you think it is. You can’t seperate DCL from what’s happened over the last few years. DCL is just one of many companies that are going to feel it.

I think Disney and other were hoping the "Travel Boom" would at least get us back to the highs of 2019...

I know airlines have been reporting slow downs on travel for several months now... so shouldn't come as a surprise that booking are down and that Disney needs to adjust. And I doubt they really know just how much they'll have to adjust. These last minute specials this summer were for my experience, pretty out of the norm.

 

[Amunet]

Even if we go into a bad recession there will be enough people that can afford DCL probably even more at the lower price point. They may even gain some longtime loyalists. We started going to WDW and cruising DCL in 2010. The prices the last few years are exactly as you said overinflated. Disney is adjusting to the market.

Yup. That same cruise was like $4k after covid, same ship. My jaw dropped.

 

[jrez]

In 2022 we went on a 5 day cruise (2 people) on the Dream that ended on Christmas Eve. Our original verandah room was $4,400. We dropped it and took the VGT room from $2,800 and almost ended up in the same room. Our original booking was in early August.

 

[DCLMP]

I think Disney and other were hoping the "Travel Boom" would at least get us back to the highs of 2019...

I know airlines have been reporting slow downs on travel for several months now... so shouldn't come as a surprise that booking are down and that Disney needs to adjust. And I doubt they really know just how much they'll have to adjust. These last minute specials this summer were for my experience, pretty out of the norm.

There was starting to be a pullback in 2019. We had the repo crisis in 2019 and fed had to inject 75 billion liquidity into the repo markets over several days. Then Covid and QE, billions pumped into the system, the banking crisis in 2023, ballooning fiscal debt, money is created from debt....the list of problems goes on. Somehow they manage to keep duct taping it back together.

That type of inflation is never sustainable, but company's are going to do what the market dictates. You have too many dollars chasing too few goods and prices go up. Prices eventually get so high demand goes down. Prices soon follow. There is a limit to what people are willing and capable of paying for a discretionary item like a cruise. Most people are struggling to keep up with the cost of non-discretionary items like food.

 

[Cfabar1]

Some FL rates are now where you can select your room instead of VGT. Is that new?

there are some November Dream sailings where you get to pick your Verandah on Deck 6. Rather than doing a VGT booking and having Disney assign it to you later. These are also subject to normal cancellation dates - meaning you can book now and still refund/get your money back.

Maybe this was common pre-Covid, we didn't sail until after COVID.

 

[DCLMP]

Some FL rates are now where you can select your room instead of VGT. Is that new?

there are some November Dream sailings where you get to pick your Verandah on Deck 6. Rather than doing a VGT booking and having Disney assign it to you later. These are also subject to normal cancellation dates - meaning you can book now and still refund/get your money back.

Maybe this was common pre-Covid, we didn't sail until after COVID.

I know with some TA discounts we used to book with sometimes you could pick a room and sometimes you couldn't.