VGC - where is price per point headed? Should we buy now or wait?

[zachatak]

We plan on continuing to do Disneyland at least every other year or using it as a rest period on the way to Hawaii (we are east coasters). I've been noodling on the pros and cons of a VGC contract for a while and kicking myself for not grabbing one a couple years ago when resale prices were under 200ppt. General thoughts on the continued (nutso) pricing of around 260-270ppt? We've had trouble getting a room with the 7 month booking window using our WDW contracts so I'm trying to weigh paying what equates to an almost 80% premium over what we paid for our last WDW contracts to be able to snag the room we want and of course am trying to justify in my head why "it's ok to pay $265ppt" for VGC. Oh wise DVC owners, please give me your thoughts.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Are you passionate about Grand Cal in particular? Best use case in your scenario would likely be to wait for DLT.

Personally I don't think Grand Cal prices make any sense even if you ARE passionate about Grand Cal. I'd just pay cash.

 

[Royal Consort]

The question depends on how much you like Grand Californian. I can only speak from my perspective. I paid a premium for VGC after details of VDH were released. I want a balcony (VDH doesn't have these in studios); I want a view (the majority of VDH overlooks a car park and suburbia with power poles) and I like the amenities at VGC (restaurants, bars, and quick walk to 2 parks).

Waiting for VDH would have been a cheaper option but I wasn't enamoured with it.

There was a thread a while ago where a poster estimated how high the resale price of VGC would need to rise before it was no longer economical. It could go to $400 per point based on the estimates within that thread.

There's subjectivity whether VGC is worth it to you. Does it matter where you stay onsite? Would you be happier waiting for VDH? Or does VGC improve your stay at Disneyland?

 

[NVDISFamily]

Id say the current price is 250 to 260 when buying in some kind of bulk. Just did our buy in for DVC with VGC as our main goal and we got 520 points across 3 contracts. Paid 255 a point for all of them. No issues with ROFR.

I did a ton of spreadsheet analysis and forecasting at 280ish a point (what I thought I might have to pay) before this market dip got us to a lower price. My analysis says 15 years out, VGC wins and has value. But yes it's pricy. You have to value the location, style, etc. All of those are huge for us. On our last two trips to Disneyland resort we stayed at nice properties in the area and for multiple reasons both times I said I would have pad a small fortune to be staying at the Grand Cal vs where we were staying.

To add to the value of VGC, all of my pro/con analysis was done prior to the new entrance to Pixar Pier at the back side of the Grand Cal that is so close to VGC rooms.

I agree with @CaptainAmerica that VDH will likely be a better value if you goal is to just own some DVC at Disneyland Resort. The other plus of VDH is that the direct points will have better flexibility in the DVC system and will have 10+ more years of life on them.....

The big wildcard will be the point chart at VDH. If it's insane, then VGC will be the clear winner as it's worth the premium.

Best of luck to you!

 

[HappyThoughtsTees]

We live in CA and VGC is our main home resort/DL is our home park. It's a beautiful resort, with great dining, and 2 direct access points to DCA. For us, with 3 kids under 10 years-old, that easy access makes a difference. If you are used to WDW mileage, it might not matter to your family, but it sure is convenient.

If you are paying cash for the points, or secure a decent rate for financing and pay it off aggressively, it can definitely make sense to buy resale. We are a family of 5, and I can tell you that using our DVC points is significantly cheaper than paying rack (even with promotional rates) for a 1 or 2 bedroom at the Grand. Now those numbers truly are "nutso"!

In reality, it boils down to; if you want to stay there, buy there. SAP points are pretty useless at VGC unless your travel plans are extremely flexible. Coming from the East Coast I would think you need a decent amount of time to plan for flights, especially if pairing DL with AUL. However, a VGC/DL stay on the way to AUL sounds like an incredible vacation.

Good luck with your decision!

PS- Negotiate the heck out of whatever contract you bid on...there are quite a few on the market. No reason you shouldn't get $260 or under.

 

[NVDISFamily]

using our DVC points is significantly cheaper than paying rack (even with promotional rates) for a 1 or 2 bedroom at the Grand. Now those numbers truly are "nutso"!

I agree. The rack rate comparison for studio DVC rooms to regular hotel rooms will still show DVC as a better value over the long run but the gap isn't as huge. I did my comparison using a 2BR Suite to 2BR villa as a compare and the difference is huge. The rack rate on those even today is insane but I look all the time and they are often sold out..... There are just enough people in CA with buckets of cash to spare that don't mind spending 2k a night on a 2BR suite at the grand cal. I even factored in a reasonable discount of 25% on the rack rate for 2BR units over time (if you are lucky to get one available) and still DVC wins by a long shot.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Bah - I keep forgetting things I want to say.... sorry not trying to take over this thread

One other idea/thought is that with VDH opening up it's going to raise the interest in DVC on the west coast of the USA by a factor of ???

My crazy thought is that this may actually have the opposite impact that some are predicting and cause VGC to go up in value. There are going to be plenty of people who love the Grand Cal but don't really know about VGC/DVC. With VDH brining more marketing dollars to Disneyland Resort for DVC, I could see many people saying, I want to learn more about DVC but then telling their guide, yea, VDH looks nice, but we are Grand Cal people.... what do you have there?

If the guides report back to the ROFR monster that there is huge demand to buy VGC direct at 310/320 a point and we are buying it at 250 to 260.... do they start taking it back? Even if that doesn't happen, if these same people go hunting for how to buy Grand Cal DVC online, could it setup a new round of buyers rushing into the resale market to grab up VGC?

These are just crazy ideas.... but worth thinking about.

 

[HappyThoughtsTees]

Bah - I keep forgetting things I want to say.... sorry not trying to take over this thread

One other idea/thought is that with VDH opening up it's going to raise the interest in DVC on the west coast of the USA by a factor of ???

My crazy thought is that this may actually have the opposite impact that some are predicting and cause VGC to go up in value. There are going to be plenty of people who love the Grand Cal but don't really know about VGC/DVC. With VDH brining more marketing dollars to Disneyland Resort for DVC, I could see many people saying, I want to learn more about DVC but then telling their guide, yea, VDH looks nice, but we are Grand Cal people.... what do you have there?

If the guides report back to the ROFR monster that there is huge demand to buy VGC direct at 310/320 a point and we are buying it at 250 to 260.... do they start taking it back? Even if that doesn't happen, if these same people go hunting for how to buy Grand Cal DVC online, could it setup a new round of buyers rushing into the resale market to grab up VGC?

These are just crazy ideas.... but worth thinking about.

We've had this exact conversation in our house, so I don't think it's that far fetched.

Wanted to add- something that intrigues us about VDH is the DVC pool. As a CA family who visits DL, we have yet to experience the sense of community that we hear WDW DVCers talk about...DVC pools, Moonlight Magic, etc. seems fun.

 

[Royal Consort]

My crazy thought is that this may actually have the opposite impact that some are predicting and cause VGC to go up in value. There are going to be plenty of people who love the Grand Cal but don't really know about VGC/DVC. With VDH brining more marketing dollars to Disneyland Resort for DVC, I could see many people saying, I want to learn more about DVC but then telling their guide, yea, VDH looks nice, but we are Grand Cal people.... what do you have there?

I don't think VDH price will bring down VGC; they're both too different. I am not sure it will push prices up either. I think we are seeing VGC stabilise and I imagine it will retain quite a premium over VDH on resale. If consumers want VGC, guides will tell them direct points at VDH can be used to book VGC. Technically true but guides will conveniently omit details. The reality is that new VDH members are not going to be able to use their points interchangeably at DLR the same way as WDW. Hence VGC will maintain its boutique premium.

If the guides report back to the ROFR monster that there is huge demand to buy VGC direct at 310/320 a point and we are buying it at 250 to 260.... do they start taking it back?

The focus will be on selling out VDH. There are mountains of points to sell. I could see DVC buying back VGC and VDH both after VDH sells out (depending on how they've cultivated demand in California + resale price). Disney will be more likely to resell in the future as they are restricted to how many DVC offerings they can build at DLR. In saying that VDH is going to be their bread and butter because it's comparably large.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The big wildcard will be the point chart at VDH. If it's insane, then VGC will be the clear winner as it's worth the premium.

I don't think there's any reason to believe it will be. Disney is reasonably consistent that points charts are roughly proportional to cash prices. Less expensive in cash is a pretty safe bet that a place will also be less expensive in points.

 

[NVDISFamily]

I don't think there's any reason to believe it will be. Disney is reasonably consistent that points charts are roughly proportional to cash prices. Less expensive in cash is a pretty safe bet that a place will also be less expensive in points.

My guess would be Riviera like point chart but perhaps a bit weighted on the larger units (3BR and 2BR...etc.) as there are less than Riviera.

Selling incentives might mirror what we saw with VGF2.

 

[DVCsloth]

Are you passionate about Grand Cal in particular? Best use case in your scenario would likely be to wait for DLT.

Personally I don't think Grand Cal prices make any sense even if you ARE passionate about Grand Cal. I'd just pay cash.

I wonder how availability will be for cash reservations. I have a friend who is still kicking himself for not buying Beachclub when it was new. They have been renting there every year since and they don't even want to know how much they ended up paying. BC/YC seems to have pretty decent cash availability though.

 

[Shivanair]

Purchased at 300 and then at 280. No regrets, as we love VGC.

Was waiting for VDH, but ended up adding more points at Aulani. Might still purchase at VDH, but the attachment that we have to VGC and Aulani just isn't there for DLH, so not too excited about VDH.

I wouldn't try to time the market; buy and start making memories.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I wonder how availability will be for cash reservations. I have a friend who is still kicking himself for not buying Beachclub when it was new. They have been renting there every year since and they don't even want to know how much they ended up paying. BC/YC seems to have pretty decent cash availability though.

Depends on what kind of unit you want I'd imagine. I've never tried to book VGC but never had trouble getting GC hotel side.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Depends on what kind of unit you want I'd imagine. I've never tried to book VGC but never had trouble getting GC hotel side.

Suites or rooms?

Just tried to search for multiple dates to try and see if I could get any room pricing info for a 1BR or 2BR suite and multiple searches show this -



After searching 8 different booking windows I finally found a random day in December where I could get a quote for a night -



Over the years I've seen these rooms be very hard to book on the cash side for longer than just 1 to 2 nights.

I tried to see if the nights I want in March can show a price but had no luck getting the system to quote me out that far.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Suites or rooms?

Just tried to search for multiple dates to try and see if I could get any room pricing info for a 1BR or 2BR suite and multiple searches show this -

View attachment 691461

After searching 8 different booking windows I finally found a random day in December where I could get a quote for a night -

View attachment 691463

Over the years I've seen these rooms be very hard to book on the cash side for longer than just 1 to 2 nights.

I tried to see if the nights I want in March can show a price but had no luck getting the system to quote me out that far.

Yeah I was just referencing normie hotel rooms. Since most DVC owners are studio-first, I thought it would be the most direct comparison.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Yeah I was just referencing normie hotel rooms. Since most DVC owners are studio-first, I thought it would be the most direct comparison.

Sounds good. Seems like that hypothesis that value is greater for the larger rooms at VGC but not as good for studios (VGC still wins on that value but not by as wide of a margin). Also, given that it's so small and so few studios, if staying at a studio is your goal, VDH will win there by a long shot.

We are 2BR and/or multi room family for most trips as primary goal(s) are to bring family together for fun on 4 to 5 night trips. With that said, looking forward to see if the VDH plans has lowered the demand for studios at VGC. From what I see so far, demand for studios just past the 7.5 month mark doesn't seem too crazy. Perhaps a lot of people who own at VGC for studios have already sold and are waiting for VDH.

 

[DVCsloth]

Seems to me that the new tower would be a pretty good alternative to VGC. Might not have as good of a location but it sounds like it will have more rooms to choose from.
I think VGC only has 50 DVC rooms, and the new tower will have over 200. VGC looks pretty amazing to me just looking at the pictures.

 

[NVDISFamily]

This table I made a few weeks ago in the older ROFR thread might help:



VDH is heavy on the smaller rooms. Sadly it has less dedicated 1BR and 2BR than VGC. So if you want those larger rooms, VGC still is very competitive given it's other perks. Still super excited to see such a large expansion of rooms in Cali.

 

[DVCsloth]

This table I made a few weeks ago in the older ROFR thread might help:

View attachment 691476

VDH is heavy on the smaller rooms. Sadly it has less dedicated 1BR and 2BR than VGC. So if you want those larger rooms, VGC still is very competitive given it's other perks. Still super excited to see such a large expansion of rooms in Cali.

Nice table, 1br and above looks like they will be pretty difficult to book. Better book right at 11 months if you want anything other than a studio. VGC looks like it's really balanced well.
VDH studios may work for smaller families and shorter stays though. When they added BPK to VGF Disney really upset the balance of the resort, VDH seems like it will be even tighter than VGF for 1br and above.