VGC price drop w/new Disneyland Hotel?

[emmagator]

I've been seriously considering purchasing a VGC resale contract. A friend of mind suggested renting points and waiting until the "new" Disneyland hotel was built, as there might be a significant price drop in VGC point value if DVC units are included in the new hotel. Honestly, I hadn't been aware a new hotel was going to be built (2021), so had never considered this. We've rented points and been happy, but purchasing is something we both want. Any thoughts...

 

[disneynutz]

IMO the price will not drop, just keep going up.

Bill

 

[OKW Lover]

Agree with @disneynutz above, don't expect a price drop. If you are seriously considering buying at VGC go ahead and do it now.

 

[drusba]

I am personally unaware of any planned new DVC at Disneyland. Resale prices have dropped before for such things as the Great Recession of 2008-09 and 9/11, but as far as I can recall going well back into the 1990's they have never lowered because of the additon of a new resort. If anything, the introduction of a new resort, with its own new mammoth price tag, tends to result in older resorts rising somewhat in resale price.

 

[ELMC]

I am personally unaware of any planned new DVC at Disneyland. Resale prices have dropped before for such things as the Great Recession of 2008-09 and 9/11, but as far as I can recall going well back into the 1990's they have never lowered because of the additon of a new resort. If anything, the introduction of a new resort, with its own new mammoth price tag, tends to result in older resorts rising somewhat in resale price.

I was going to say exactly this. To add to drusba's thoughts, the price of the new resort will be the benchmark by which the value of VGC is set. Add to that the small size, lack of a waiting list, and a derth of resale contracts available, and my guess is prices will go up, not down.

ETA: one Oxford comma

 

[Wakey]

They are meant to be applying for tax breaks on a new hotel, which I read meant it cannot be a DVC. I suppose if they build it though, they could turn more of the current property into DVC. Even if that happens prices are not coming down. Disney would probably be selling any new points at 200 plus.

 

[LAX]

They are meant to be applying for tax breaks on a new hotel, which I read meant it cannot be a DVC. I suppose if they build it though, they could turn more of the current property into DVC. Even if that happens prices are not coming down. Disney would probably be selling any new points at 200 plus.

From the "rumors" (if you can even call it rumor) I have read, Disney can build a wing of the luxury hotel and make that DVC, but the other wings of the hotel would still qualify for the tax break. The alternative is like you suggested. Since the new hotel will provide new rooms, which would enable them to turn more of Grand Cal into DVC.

LAX

 

[DLgal]

From the "rumors" (if you can even call it rumor) I have read, Disney can build a wing of the luxury hotel and make that DVC, but the other wings of the hotel would still qualify for the tax break. The alternative is like you suggested. Since the new hotel will provide new rooms, which would enable them to turn more of Grand Cal into DVC.

LAX

There will not be enough space for "wings." This new hotel will be a single tower like PPH. The space it will occupy is TINY.

There will not be a DVC component.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Either way, given the size and demand of VGC, I doubt VGC goes down if there's a new DVC at Disneyland, anywhere. The $200+/point buy-in will keep VGC pricing high.

 

[bumbershoot]

ETA: one Oxford comma

 

[Garthilk]

Given that construction isn't slated to start till 2018 and won't finish till around 2020-21 according to the initial announcement, I doubt VGC is going to drop in price any time soon. Also, the odds of there NOT being a DVC in this new hotel is pretty slim IMO.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Given that construction isn't slated to start till 2018 and won't finish till around 2020-21 according to the initial announcement, I doubt VGC is going to drop in price any time soon. Also, the odds of there NOT being a DVC in this new hotel is pretty slim IMO.

The tax incentives would increase those odds of no DVC by a lot. Perhaps they'd move ahead with converting something at DLH though but they are unlikely to forgo the incentives on the new hotel.

 

[longboard55]

If they have a DVC. I hope to have first shot as a current owner, as for the city tax, Disney gets anything they want from Anaheim

 

[ELMC]

The tax incentives would increase those odds of no DVC by a lot. Perhaps they'd move ahead with converting something at DLH though but they are unlikely to forgo the incentives on the new hotel.

That was the RUMOR (emphasis mine) that I heard. Building a new hotel would allow them to convert an existing hotel to DVC after the fact. Makes sense. If you have to refurbish the hotel anyway due to time and wear and tear, you might as well spend that money converting to DVC and then reaping the rewards immediately by selling the points.

 

[MouseOfCards]

If they did convert GC hotel rooms to DVC, would they be available to current owners, or would it be a VGC II, like CCV?

 

[Garthilk]

The tax incentives would increase those odds of no DVC by a lot. Perhaps they'd move ahead with converting something at DLH though but they are unlikely to forgo the incentives on the new hotel.

It is reasonable to remember that sometimes a single hotel campus is constructed of several buildings for the purposes of licensing. While certainly incentives for the hotel exist, there is nothing that prevents them from constructing additional structures conjoined to a hotel that contain DVC.

 

[DebbieB]

If they did convert GC hotel rooms to DVC, would they be available to current owners, or would it be a VGC II, like CCV?

From what I have read, the hotel rooms that are in the new wing that was built when DVC was built, are all in the VGC dues budget, not just the DVC rooms. I assume DVC/Disney pays those dues. I also heard they were constructed in a way to make an easy conversion to DVC. Since they are in the same building, I would expect one resort if it happened. OKW and BWV both added additional rooms years after the initial construction.

Regarding the price going down, I bought BWV in 1999 at $65/point. DVC has added several resorts at WDW since and the resale is now around $90-$100. It never went down.

 

[MouseOfCards]

From what I have read, the hotel rooms that are in the new wing that was built when DVC was built, are all in the VGC dues budget, not just the DVC rooms. I assume DVC/Disney pays those dues. I also heard they were constructed in a way to make an easy conversion to DVC. Since they are in the same building, I would expect one resort if it happened. OKW and BWV both added additional rooms years after the initial construction.

Interesting, thanks! Does anyone know what the occupancy rates are for GC hotel rooms and DVC rooms? This might show if Disney has any incentive to do such a conversion in the future (like they're doing at WDW).

 

[LAX]

Interesting, thanks! Does anyone know what the occupancy rates are for GC hotel rooms and DVC rooms? This might show if Disney has any incentive to do such a conversion in the future (like they're doing at WDW).

Occupancy rate at VGC is likely very high given how difficult it is for non-home resort owners to book. As for the hotel, it should be fairly high as well or Disney won't be considering building a new hotel (or is it a done deal already?). I have no idea what the numbers are if that's what you are actually looking for.

LAX

 

[ELMC]

From what I have read, the hotel rooms that are in the new wing that was built when DVC was built, are all in the VGC dues budget, not just the DVC rooms. I assume DVC/Disney pays those dues. I also heard they were constructed in a way to make an easy conversion to DVC. Since they are in the same building, I would expect one resort if it happened. OKW and BWV both added additional rooms years after the initial construction.

Regarding the price going down, I bought BWV in 1999 at $65/point. DVC has added several resorts at WDW since and the resale is now around $90-$100. It never went down.

If I may respectfully disagree, I purchased several BWV contracts in 2011-2012 for $58-$62 a point. That was around the prevailing price at the time. Same can be said for BLT which was going for $75-$90 a point, much lower than its initial offering price. My point is not to nitpick but rather to illustrate that unforeseen circumstances (in this case the economic crash of 2008) can wreak havoc on all kinds of markets, including DVC. While it is highly unlikely that VGC will go down substantially, there is risk.