VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[ehh]

I'd like to try tracking the VDH sales numbers, how much has likely been declared, and general Unit sales tracking.

How this will work:

• A portion of users post the following:
  • The Unit they received
  • How many points they bought
  • The % share of the Unit listed in their contract
• I will periodically scrub the OC RecorderWorks site for recorded deeds and compile it and do some simple calculations to figure out the following:
  • The number of points recorded as a lagging indicator of points sold
  • The order of Units sold out and actively for sale
• I will compile all of this info and do some simple calculations to figure out the following:
  • The number of points in a Unit
  • How much has likely been declared

If you'd like to participate, you can post the following about your contract:
Points -- Unit -- %

I'll get started on my VDH points:
175 -- Unit 1F -- 0.2240%

Next post will be used for more tracking info!

Spoiler: Old version of this post

I want to see if we can back into a fuzzy version of VDH sales numbers by tracking the number of points in a Unit, the Units people have in their contracts, and which Units are being sold on which dates.

How this will work:

• A portion of users post the following:
  • The Unit they received
  • How many points they bought
  • The % share of the Unit listed in their contract
  • Their UY (we may not need this longterm if there ends up being no use for it)
  • The date they received their DocuSign paperwork with the Unit listed
• I will compile it and do some simple calculations to figure out the following:
  • The number of points in a Unit
  • Determine the order of Units sold, or if they're done by UY, or just random
  • Create a probable range of points sold based on this input and trends from posts
    • For example, if Unit 1B is sold for consistently for a few days then disappears for weeks, it's potentially safe to assume it was sold through
      • With this we can also determine the date range a Unit was sold
    • Because we will have previously calculated the total points in the Unit, we can say it's likely that many points as have been sold, as our minimum

The more participation, the better we can suss out the VDH sales activity.

Doing this because DVC blogs might not be able to track actual sales and I bet a lot of us are curious. I think it will just take some participation and some organization to get some ballpark numbers.

Critical caveat: if Units are assigned randomly, then all bets are off and this effort is moot. Disney could do this, but we don't have the evidence to say whether or not they do. I suspect they don't at this time as there's no reason for them to do this.

Formatting that would be appreciated:
Points -- Unit -- % -- Date -- Use Year

I'll get started on my VDH points:
175 -- Unit 1F -- 0.2240% -- 5/11/23 -- June UY

From this, we know at least 175 points have been sold, which is now the minimum. Maximum is 78,125, which is the number of points Unit 1F. It's possible I bought the very last points and without any other data, this is our maximum.

Next post will be used for more tracking info!

 

[ehh]

Points recorded as of 10/20/23: ~508,003 (15.60% of total)
Points declared as of 10/12/23: ~727,662 (22.34% of total) [To be confirmed]

• May 2023: 147,047 points recorded (4.52% of total)
  • 8,650 points recorded per day (points started being recorded 5/15/23)
  • 1,147 contracts recorded
  • 128.2 points per contract
• June 2023: 161,817 points recorded (4.97% of total)
  • 5,394 points recorded per day
  • 1,133 contracts recorded
  • 142.8 points per contract
• July 2023: 94,176 points recorded (2.89% of total)
  • 3,038 points recorded per day
  • 599 contracts recorded
  • 157.2 points per contract
• August 2023: 51,624 points recorded (1.59% of total)
  • 1,665 points recorded per day
  • 338 contracts recorded
  • 152.7 points per contract
• September 2023: 31,610 points recorded (0.97% of total)
  • 1,054 points recorded per day
  • 211 contracts recorded
  • 149.8 points per contract
• October 2023 to date: 21,729 points recorded (0.67% of total)
  • 1,086 points recorded per day
  • 128 contracts recorded
  • 169.8 points per contract

Total:

• 3,501 contracts recorded
  • 1,113x 150pt contracts
  • 586x 50pt contracts
  • 372x 200pt contracts
  • 308x 75pt contracts
  • 307x 100pt contracts
  • 151x 250pt contracts
  • 136x 175pt contracts
• 142.9pt average contract size
• 1,500pt is largest contract (two of them)

Units likely sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1H, 1J.
Units close to selling out: 1F and 1G.

Units recorded in the last week: 1C, 1D, 1E, 1G, 1H, 2A

Unit Declaration details:



Unit 1B

• 45,372 ± 3 points based on deeds
• 43,349 based on Condo Plan
• ~38,979 points recorded in OCRW
  • Floor 1
    • 1 SV Duo
    • 5 SV Studios
• Dates recorded: 5/15/23 - 9/8/23
  • 1B is basically sold out

Unit 1C

• 47,809 ± 4 points based on deeds
• 49,707 based on Condo Plan
• ~46,777 points recorded in OCRW
  • Floor 2
    • 4 PV Studios
    • 1 Dedicated 1BR
• Dates recorded: 5/15/23 - 10/19/23
  • 1C is basically sold out

Unit 1D

• 69,126 ± 6 points based on deeds
• 66,053 based on Condo Plan
• ~66,451 points recorded in OCRW
  • Floor 2
    • 1 SV Duo
    • 8 SV Studios
• Dates recorded: 5/17/23 - 10/20/23
  • 1D is basically sold out

Unit 1E

• 90,750 points based on deeds
• 86,698 based on Condo Plan
• ~35,069 points recorded in OCRW
  • Floor 3
    • 2 SV Duos
    • 10 SV Studios
• Dates recorded: 8/15/23 - 10/20/23 - ?

Unit 1F

• 78,125 ± 17 points based on deeds
• 80,573 based on Condo Plan
• ~76,081 points recorded in OCRW
  • Floor 3
    • 1 PV Duo
    • 6 PV Studios
    • 1 Lock-off 2-Bedroom
• Dates recorded: 5/23/23 - 10/6/23
  • 1F is basically sold out

Unit 1G

• 80,257 ± 16 points based on deeds
• 83,216 based on Condo Plan
• ~78,099 points recorded in OCRW
  • Floor 3
    • 7 PV Studios
    • 1 Dedicated 2-Bedroom
• Dates recorded: 6/9/23 - 10/18/23
  • 1G is basically sold out

Unit 1H

• 56,513 points ± 16 points based on deeds
• 57,191 based on Condo Plan
• ~54,460 points recorded in OCRW
  • Floor 3
    • 4 PV Studios
    • 1 Dedicated 2-Bedroom
• Dates recorded: 5/15/23 - 10/20/23
  • 1H is basically sold out

Unit 1J

• 58,977 ± 3 points based on deeds
• 49,384 based on Condo Plan
• ~40,747 points recorded in OCRW
  
  • 1 Grand Villa, floors 9/10
• Dates recorded: 5/16/23 - 9/15/23
  • Based on recorded deeds slowing down, 1J is basically sold out
  • Based on points recorded, 1J is not close to selling out
  • It's possible the OCR process used by OCRW has a problem recognizing "1J" on contracts

Unit 2A

• 49,691 ± 7 points based on deeds
• [pending] based on Condo Plan
  
  • [pending]
• ~45,440 points recorded in OCRW
• Dates recorded: 6/22/23 - 10/19/23 - ?

Phase details:

• Phase 1
  
  • Effective Date: December 13, 2022
  • On Sale: May 2, 2023 - Ongoing
  • Recorded Dates: May 15, 2023 - Ongoing
  • Inventory:
    
    • 4 Standard View Duos
    • 2 Preferred View Duos
    • 2 Garden Duos
    • 23 Standard View Studios
    • 23 Preferred View Studios
    • 2 Garden Studios
    • 1 Dedicated 1-Bedroom
    • 1 Lock-off 2-Bedroom
    • 2 Dedicated 2-Bedrooms
    • 1 Grand Villa
  • Points based on Condo Plan and Points Chart: 573,917 (17.6% of points)
  • Points based on sold deeds: 436,179 (Units 1A, 1E, and 1I have not appeared in recorded deeds yet)
  • Condo Plan:
    
    • Starts at page 95 in this version of the VDH POS: https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.di..._Public_Offering_Statement_Rev_05_02_2023.pdf
• Phase 2
  
  • Effective Date: [pending]
  • On Sale: May 2, 2023 - Ongoing
  • Declared in OCRW: May 23, 2023 [to be confirmed]
  • Recorded Dates: June 22, 2023 - Ongoing
  • Inventory [to be confirmed]:
    
    • 2 Duos (likely SV)
    • 4 Studios (likely SV)
    • 2 Dedicated 2-Bedrooms
    • 3 Lock-off 2-Bedrooms
    • Possibly more?
  • Points based on Condo Plan and Points Chart: [To be confirmed] 153,745 (4.72% of points)
  • Points based on sold deeds: [pending] (Units 2B+ have not appeared in recorded deeds yet)
  • Condo Plan:
    
    • [pending]

 

[hoserland]

55--Unit 1H --0.0973%--5/3/23--Feb UY

 

[crvetter]

One thing to note is use year is no longer tied to a unit. DVC can set use year for points to be whatever they want now.

 

[BrianLo]

50 -- 1C -- 0.1568% -- 5/2/2023 -- Dec UY

 

[Amyunder]

I want to see if we can back into a fuzzy version of VDH sales numbers by tracking the number of points in a Unit, the Units people have in their contracts, and which Units are being sold on which dates.

How this will work:

• A portion of users post the following:
  • The Unit they received
  • How many points they bought
  • The % share of the Unit listed in their contract
  • Their UY (we may not need this longterm if there ends up being no use for it)
  • The date they received their DocuSign paperwork with the Unit listed
• I will compile it and do some simple calculations to figure out the following:
  • The number of points in a Unit
  • Determine the order of Units sold, or if they're done by UY, or just random
  • Create a probable range of points sold based on this input and trends from posts
    • For example, if Unit 1B is sold for consistently for a few days then disappears for weeks, it's potentially safe to assume it was sold through
      • With this we can also determine the date range a Unit was sold
    • Because we will have previously calculated the total points in the Unit, we can say it's likely that many points as have been sold, as our minimum

The more participation, the better we can suss out the VDH sales activity.

Doing this because DVC blogs might not be able to track actual sales and I bet a lot of us are curious. I think it will just take some participation and some organization to get some ballpark numbers.

Critical caveat: if Units are assigned randomly, then all bets are off and this effort is moot. Disney could do this, but we don't have the evidence to say whether or not they do. I suspect they don't at this time as there's no reason for them to do this.

Formatting that would be appreciated:
Points -- Unit -- % -- Date -- Use Year

I'll get started on my VDH points:
175 -- Unit 1F -- 0.2240% -- 5/11/23 -- June UY

From this, we know at least 175 points have been sold, which is now the minimum. Maximum is 78,125, which is the number of points Unit 1F. It's possible I bought the very last points and without any other data, this is our maximum.

Next post will be used for more tracking info!

80 - 1J - - 5/4 - June UY
I think it was .13% but I have to dig in my paperwork

 

[Amyunder]

80 - 1J - - 5/4 - June UY
I think it was .13% but I have to dig in my paperwork

.1356%

 

[Sandisw]

I am going on memory, since those contracts were sold and I did not keep the paperwork but when I bought BLT back in 2009, those two contracts were not the same unit number.

Things could have changed for sure.

 

[crvetter]

I am going on memory, since those contracts were sold and I did not keep the paperwork but when I bought BLT back in 2009, those two contracts were not the same unit number.

Things could have changed for sure.

When I bought CCV and RIV, my two contracts at each had different unit numbers. Even though they were bought at the beginning and same UY

 

[Sandisw]

When I bought CCV and RIV, my two contracts at each had different unit numbers. Even though they were bought at the beginning and same UY

Different resorts will always be different units because they are deeded different places. I bought at BLT and broke into two contracts and those were in different units.

 

[crvetter]

Different resorts will always be different units because they are deeded different places. I bought at BLT and broke into two contracts and those were in different units.

Sorry I meant my two RIV contracts are different. And my two CCV are different. It’s why I said “my two contracts at each”, which I see wasn’t clear probably, sorry. Even though both bought at the same time towards the beginning of sales

 

[ehh]

Updated the tracker!

Definitely need more participation from folks before this has any sort of sales indication

 

[Sunnyore]

100 pt -- 1D -- 0.1447% -- 5/5/23 -- Aug UY
50 pt -- 1H -- 0.0885% -- 5/7/23 -- Aug UY

 

[JavaDuck]

350 -- Unit 1B -- 0.7714% -- 5/2/23 -- FEB UY

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think knowing what percentage of the property has been declared, and how many Units comprise that percentage is vital. Also, a copy of the condo plan defining what comprises each Unit.

 

[Dobermanns]

100 — 1C — 0.2092% — 5/2/23 — Aug
50 — 1B — 0.1102% — 5/2/23 — Aug

 

[SoCalDCLfan]

150 -- Unit 1D -- 0.2170% - 5/10/23 - Aug

 

[ehh]

Updated!

@Dobermanns and @BrianLo, looks like your Unit 1C points/% share are pretty far apart.

BrianLo -- 50 -- 1C -- 0.1568% -- 5/2/2023 -- Dec UY:
Works out to 31,888 ± 10 points in the Unit

Dobermanns -- 100 — 1C — 0.2092% — 5/2/23 — Aug
Works out to 47,801 ± 11 points in the Unit

Do you both mind double checking your points/%?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Is this not public information on Anaheim comptroller site?

 

[ehh]

Is this not public information on Anaheim comptroller site?

I don't believe it is easily accessible, but I've never tried.

On the monthly sales updates from DVCNews.com, this is the standard process disclaimer they post:

---

The sales data includes all 11 DVC resorts at Walt Disney World, as well as Disney's Vero Beach Resort, and Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort. Point sales data is not available for the Villas at Disney's Grand California Hotel. The data is compiled from deeds filed by Disney Vacation Development and recorded with the Orange County (FL) Comptroller, the Indian River County (FL) Clerk of Court, and the Beaufort County (SC) Register of Deeds. Thanks to Chris for assisting in the compilation of the sales data.

---

This has led me to believe that it's either not accessible, not easily accessible, or not accessible for free. I'll check it out though.