O14 resale impact of 2042

[PolyRob]

Frankly, out of all the things I said, I think this is the most likely one provided we aren't in a full out recession in 2042. Even with a YC DVC, I could see this happening just due to how much demand the location has always commanded. (I think it originally only took about a year for BCV to sell out.)

The rest of this post is pure wishful thinking:
If they don't want to mess with the EPCOT sight lines, instead of a 10 story tower they could take over the nearby cash wing of Beach Club and make a wider building. Some way, they'll want more units this time. They'll also want to have Grand Villas with Lake and/or Theme park views to plump up the point charts. Have standard view rooms as the first couple of floors/parking lot views to keep the entry level point chart more attractive. I also predict that they'll put in tower studios similar to the Poly Tower.

They'd probably redo the Villa Pool to be a bit nicer (possibly zero entry with a sand bottom, but not super fancy to compete with Storm-a-long Bay) and have a themed splash pad for the kids. If they take over the cash wing at Beach Club, maybe that quiet pool would become the new Villa pool, and they utilize the footprint of the current one for more building space.

They could put in another restaurant/lounge like Topolino's that has views of EPCOT/Crescent Lake. You could move the character meal there to avoid the lobby chaos that currently is Cape May Cafe, and convert Cape May Cafe into a nice quick service location. Turn the quick service counter inside the general store into a nicer coffee stand/barista counter removes the morning chaos there.

Heck, I'd probably buy a fixed week Lake View Studio myself if that version came up for sale....

I may need YCV and BCV 2.0 if this happens

 

[marty3d]

I may need YCV and BCV 2.0 if this happens

You and me both!

 

[BrianLo]

2042 isn’t a big deal. They’ll divest two resorts and they’ve partially shifted OKW, which will be the primary sales target during the other resorts renovations.

It’s 2054-2057 that is the actual problem. A non phased SSR straight into Old Key West is an absolutely flood of points for (sorry) resorts people don’t really find valuable to begin with.

 

[Tatebeck]

2042 isn’t a big deal. They’ll divest two resorts and they’ve partially shifted OKW, which will be the primary sales target during the other resorts renovations.

It’s 2054-2057 that is the actual problem. A non phased SSR straight into Old Key West is an absolutely flood of points for (sorry) resorts people don’t really find valuable to begin with.

Those would be the most likely 2 resorts I could see them just adding to whatever the Trust TM becomes for bulk. Would be tough to sell them both all over again without some heavy discounts

 

[BrianLo]

Those would be the most likely 2 resorts I could see them just adding to whatever the Trust TM becomes for bulk. Would be tough to sell them both all over again without some heavy discounts

That’s a good point, I’m curious to see if the RTU comes to pass for Lakeshore.

I also wonder if SSR just gets shifted to a moderate resort in Disney’s hotel inventory. Eventually, if WDW expands like they are pretending like it will, they’ll need more hotel inventory. They’ve only dwindled moderates over the last 25 years.

Not trying to be cruel, but yes, moderate.

 

[Novatrix]

That’s a good point, I’m curious to see if the RTU comes to pass for Lakeshore.

I also wonder if SSR just gets shifted to a moderate resort in Disney’s hotel inventory. Eventually, if WDW expands like they are pretending like it will, they’ll need more hotel inventory. They’ve only dwindled moderates over the last 25 years.

Not trying to be cruel, but yes, moderate.

I'd think OKW would be the more likely one they'd shift to moderate, despite the optics of their original DVC resort leaving the DVC family. They could get a head start with the 2042 inventory being returned.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I'd think OKW would be the more likely one they'd shift to moderate, despite the optics of their original DVC resort leaving the DVC family. They could get a head start with the 2042 inventory being returned.

Neither are moderate. Moderates are simply a hotel room with 2 queens. Not studios or multiple bedrooms. SSR and OKW are huge. May more like and vacation there than don’t. It’s a great big DVC world outside this forum.

 

[Tatebeck]

Neither are moderate. Moderates are simply a hotel room with 2 queens. Not studios or multiple bedrooms. SSR and OKW are huge. May more like and vacation there than don’t. It’s a great big DVC world outside this forum.

Coronado has larger/alternate accommodations like the Casitas and Executive suites. Even some Values do like the family suites at AoA. It's totally possible that they could turn a former DVC resort into a moderate, the likelihood is what would be in question . They just did the opposite for the Cabins at Fort Wilderness after all. I do think they would probably gut the grand villas and maybe even 2br to make them into more studios and 1br or family suite style/type rooms though.

 

[Novatrix]

Neither are moderate. Moderates are simply a hotel room with 2 queens. Not studios or multiple bedrooms. SSR and OKW are huge. May more like and vacation there than don’t. It’s a great big DVC world outside this forum.

Moderate is merely a pricing tier. Pricing follows whatever people value at any given time.

Right now, the general consensus is people prefer having smaller rooms and less resort facilities in exchange for more luxurious conveniences located within a single building with convenient access to parks which does not rely on bus transportation. This can shift again by the time SSR and OKW are due to be resold, but we can only speculate for right now.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

Moderate is merely a pricing tier. Pricing follows whatever people value at any given time.

Right now, the general consensus is people prefer having smaller rooms and less resort facilities in exchange for more luxurious conveniences located within a single building with convenient access to parks which does not rely on bus transportation. This can shift again by the time SSR and OKW are due to be resold, but we can only speculate for right now.

SSR was unfairly dealt a transportation blow by Disney when they removed both the bus stops on West Side and then the boat stop by Pleasure Island. It used to be pretty easy to go from SSR to the bus stops in Downtown Disney and board any resort bus. Between that and its closeness to Downtown Disney it was great for foodies to hit dining establishments outside the parks. Add that to the closing of the spa and the pizza place, and SSR owners were given a blow by Disney they didn’t deserve.

 

[Cfabar1]

So much of what Disney has done time and time again shows it doesn't love SSR...

 

[marty3d]

Frankly, out of all the things I said, I think this is the most likely one provided we aren't in a full out recession in 2042. Even with a YC DVC, I could see this happening just due to how much demand the location has always commanded. (I think it originally only took about a year for BCV to sell out.)

The rest of this post is pure wishful thinking:
If they don't want to mess with the EPCOT sight lines, instead of a 10 story tower they could take over the nearby cash wing of Beach Club and make a wider building. Some way, they'll want more units this time. They'll also want to have Grand Villas with Lake and/or Theme park views to plump up the point charts. Have standard view rooms as the first couple of floors/parking lot views to keep the entry level point chart more attractive. I also predict that they'll put in tower studios similar to the Poly Tower.

They'd probably redo the Villa Pool to be a bit nicer (possibly zero entry with a sand bottom, but not super fancy to compete with Storm-a-long Bay) and have a themed splash pad for the kids. If they take over the cash wing at Beach Club, maybe that quiet pool would become the new Villa pool, and they utilize the footprint of the current one for more building space.

They could put in another restaurant/lounge like Topolino's that has views of EPCOT/Crescent Lake. You could move the character meal there to avoid the lobby chaos that currently is Cape May Cafe, and convert Cape May Cafe into a nice quick service location. Turn the quick service counter inside the general store into a nicer coffee stand/barista counter removes the morning chaos there.

Heck, I'd probably buy a fixed week Lake View Studio myself if that version came up for sale....

I think you're right that Disney would want to get their hands on the CL properties. This is THE prime real estate that's not one of the Monorail resorts so I just don't see them doing an OKW style extension.

I don't think they want to cede all convention business to Marriott so I doubt that will go away. I also agree they have options to handle BWV and BCV/YC differently. I suspect your wishful thinking above is probably closer to what they would do - I don't see them building a tower so close to Epcot. A tower at BW across from the Swan makes sense. There's still a lot of room between BW and DHS to expand and a tower on that side wouldn't break the Epcot sight lines.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think the wisdom that 2054-2057 is the real inflection point is very pertinent...

 

[airjay75]

Agreed. Further to that point, come 2058, setting aside AUL and VGC, there will be 4 WDW O14 remaining - BLT (expiring 2060), VGF (2064), PVB (2066), and CCV (2068). If you own resale at one of those resorts, there won't be any OKW/SSR back-up if you didn't book during your home resort priority period.

 

[haletiki]

Agreed. Further to that point, come 2058, setting aside AUL and VGC, there will be 4 WDW O14 remaining - BLT (expiring 2060), VGF (2064), PVB (2066), and CCV (2068). If you own resale at one of those resorts, there won't be any OKW/SSR back-up if you didn't book during your home resort priority period.

This assumes they continue with that resale restriction. Which, they probably will, but may not forever.

 

[Cfabar1]

This assumes they continue with that resale restriction. Which, they probably will, but may not forever.

I think they definitely will...

Plus even if they don't... as more and more pressure is created on the system with new resorts, the 7 month window will get more and more competitive at many resorts... that 11 month window will become more and more valuable...

there's an argument to be made 2042 resorts or only buy the resort you love...

 

[airjay75]

I also think it's unlikely they roll back resale restrictions. If 7-month availability gets too difficult such that it harms the sale of direct points, then I think they impose fees of some sort to use resale points to book where they are otherwise unable to book. And, probably continued ways to "wash" your resale points whether that is through the flash sales or other ways they devise in the future.

 

[Cfabar1]

I'd be curious to know if they could just decide to dissolve the BVTC altogether...

and maybe then they could do something else instead?

 

[Sandisw]

I'd be curious to know if they could just decide to dissolve the BVTC altogether...

and maybe then they could do something else instead?

They definitely can. I personally don’t see that but it’s why I lean heavily that all future resorts will be sold using a trust model, even if each is it’s own RTU plan and things function the same.

I just don’t see any downside for DVD.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I also think it's unlikely they roll back resale restrictions. If 7-month availability gets too difficult such that it harms the sale of direct points, then I think they impose fees of some sort to use resale points to book where they are otherwise unable to book. And, probably continued ways to "wash" your resale points whether that is through the flash sales or other ways they devise in the future.

I think there’s a possibility they will charge an ‘upgrade’ fee for resale if they hit a difficulty some time financially and need a quick cash infusion. I also suspect at some point there may be a lawsuit as to the differential treatment amongst owners. Not speculating who would win, just that a credible and substantial lawsuit by resale owners may occur.