VDH Opening

[Brian Noble]

I don’t think it makes sense to hijack a thread

If you'd've started a new thread with your analysis and I chimed in right away, I would be more likely to agree with you. This thread has been wandering near and far for more than a week before you added your analysis. I suppose you can say that you are entitled to forestall all further commentary on it, and you are of course free to ignore any that comes up, but I don't think that means you can actually prevent it.

I didn't even disagree with your overall point, namely: VDH is going to be a decent value for frequent Disneylanders. I just mentioned that time value of money is a thing. Or, alternatively, that I don't expect inflation to be zero percent for 50 years.

As for valuations: I think the MouseSavers discussion is at least as good as anything I'd come up with by myself; you can fiddle with their individual assumptions, but the overall framework makes a lot of sense to me.

https://www.mousesavers.com/other-disney-vacations/disney-vacation-club/#opportunity

 

[Doberge]

March 15 bookings for DVC Members will be cash bookings only.

This has probably been addressed in 19 pages but this is so frustrating. Feels like trying to max income over breakage by not even making first nights available to owners, as presumably there will be owners upon opening. I realize it might only be a few rooms for those declared but I suspect they can sell VDH pretty quickly and quickly move through declarations.

 

[Doberge]

This is also a resort I'm selfishly hoping to see restrictions depress resale costs. I'd only use VDH points at VDH (myself or renting out), so it's a spot I'd take tradeoff buying restricted resale.

 

[nalabear]

This has probably been addressed in 19 pages but this is so frustrating. Feels like trying to max income over breakage by not even making first nights available to owners, as presumably there will be owners upon opening. I realize it might only be a few rooms for those declared but I suspect they can sell VDH pretty quickly and quickly move through declarations.

I think there's more at play here beyond Disney.

If I could; I would sell timeshares AND cash stays, then hold point bookings for x time before opening to DVC points. They haven't and Disney is a lot smarter than me. SO -- it would probably indicate an outside force dictating that ability to sell DVC points.

Trust me, there are LOTS of folk wanting to get into VDH regardless of pricing so that's easy $$$ cash now for DisneyDVC to add to this quarter.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think that makes a lot of sense, @nalabear. I have to believe that if DVD could sell these points tomorrow, they would do it. That suggests to me that they are stuck in some sort of regulatory kerfuffle--for example, needing to get enough guides licensed in CA to be able to mount a sales effort as was suggested upthread.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think that makes a lot of sense, @nalabear. I have to believe that if DVD could sell these points tomorrow, they would do it. That suggests to me that they are stuck in some sort of regulatory kerfuffle--for example, needing to get enough guides licensed in CA to be able to mount a sales effort as was suggested upthread.

I really think the California licensure issue did hit them out of the blue. I know my guide couldn’t even sell me WDW points as recently as December, because I am a California resident, and he is/was not licensed here (has sold me plenty of points before, some as recently as earlier in 2022). So it may not just be that the resort is in Cal, but also the number of anticipated California resident buyers.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

This has probably been addressed in 19 pages but this is so frustrating. Feels like trying to max income over breakage by not even making first nights available to owners, as presumably there will be owners upon opening. I realize it might only be a few rooms for those declared but I suspect they can sell VDH pretty quickly and quickly move through declarations.

They’re selling rooms they won’t be declaring into inventory immediately, which is going to be probably 75% of them. They literally can’t open them for points booking. What do you want them to do with them?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This is also a resort I'm selfishly hoping to see restrictions depress resale costs. I'd only use VDH points at VDH (myself or renting out), so it's a spot I'd take tradeoff buying restricted resale.

But it will be the exact reason why resale value probably won’t depress. Most people won’t use their VDH points elsewhere. Restrictions won’t matter here IMO

 

[zavandor]

This is a common refrain, and @paslaugh is in good company with many (many!) other DVC owners.

What's interesting is that this doesn't seem to be how other timeshare owners think. And that's not because of the price. Marriott is at a similar price point, but the TUG folks in that system are not rushing to save points. That's even more remarkable given that the folks on TUG tend to be frugal lot. They'll take a studio if they have to, but usually they are looking for a larger unit for more comfort.

I suspect at least part of this is the way that Disney assigned points to their units. In DVC, the 1BR is usually about double the cost of a studio. At SSR, the "maximum reallocation" values (where every night of the year costs the same) are: 16 points for a studio, 32 for a 1BR, and 41 for a 2BR. Those ratios (1::2::2.5) are reasonably consistent across the entire system.

That's very unusual. At Marriott's Grande Vista, the ratios are roughly: 1::1.35::2.2. At Harbour Lake it is 1::1.4::2.3

Many Wyndham resorts don't even have studios; instead the 2BR lockoffs are "large" and "small" 1BRs, where the large side has a fulll kitchen but the small side has a kitchenette with a stove top, but maybe no oven. In some of them, the "small" 1BR has the full complement of apartment-sized appliances. At one of the few I could find, the ratio was 1::1.1::1.5.

So in those, even though the studio and the 1BR typically sleep the same number of guests, the "cost per guest" is not that dramatically different, making the extra amenities of the 1BR more appealing.

In some ways, I think OKW's relative point assignment was DVC's "original sin." Had those been more like the valuations other timeshare systems came up with, DVC might look very different today.

I understand what you say but I don't agree calling it a "sin". I own another timeshare with similar costs as Marriott.

1BR occupy double the space of a studio and it's double the points. In the same space, Disney can choose to build 100 studios or 50 1BR. If the points are double for a 1BR, Disney can freely choose which percentage are studios depending on anticipated demand.
If the points for a 1BR are 1.1 the points of a studio, why would they build 1BR at all? Sure, there is demand for 1BR and they'd lose part of the market, but they could sell nearly double the points building only studios.
Near park resorts have completely different demand pattern than beach resorts. I can see there being much higher demand for larger accommodations and that a studio only resort wouldn't work at all, but near a park? Poly sold out anyway, maybe just a little slower than other resorts.
What you call a sin is the only reason why 1BR are still being built.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Completely agree that this is DVC's 'original sin' and it's a large factor why we're 'studio people' despite having over 1000 points.

We'll do a 1BR for a couple of stays per year because we do like them, but we struggle to justify the 2x points for all stays. And we just don't have enough points because they are 2x the points.

Coincidentally, the WDW/Aulani cash rates for Studios :: 1BR :: 2BR tend to fall right in line with the Marriott Grande Vista and Harbour Lake points ratios. So even Disney knows that is the true value of the villas as they'd definitely rent them at a higher price if they could.

This conversation reminds me what a good value 2BRs are!

So some want to compute that VGC will be more expensive than VDH. But no one is placing a value on the fact that at resale, those points can still be used at the other 13 current DVC’s. I say that value should be factored in, then it may not seem more expensive after all.

Buying VGC resale, even after the prices have dropped a little, and then using those points anywhere else is really not a good use of the points imo. I think those points are effectively self-restricted to VGC, so I wouldn't consider that factor.
If I'm going to be buying VDH or VGC, either way I'm using those points almost exclusively at DLR. VGC also makes sense to be more expensive given the better location anyway.

 

[AstroBlasters]

This conversation reminds me what a good value 2BRs are!

Buying VGC resale, even after the prices have dropped a little, and then using those points anywhere else is really not a good use of the points imo. I think those points are effectively self-restricted to VGC, so I wouldn't consider that factor.
If I'm going to be buying VDH or VGC, either way I'm using those points almost exclusively at DLR. VGC also makes sense to be more expensive given the better location anyway.

https://homeguides.sfgate.com/tax-benefits-renting-timeshare-80928.html

Do I have this correct… if you rent out VGC points at $23/pp you’ll have to pay ordinary income tax (let’s assume 22% because we probably have a wide range on here; I’ll ignore my 9% Oregon income tax) but can deduct the $8 maintenance fee, so the net after tax is $18-19pp? Then you have to go rent someone else’s points for your WDW stay? I’m not sure that’s worth the hassle….

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

https://homeguides.sfgate.com/tax-benefits-renting-timeshare-80928.html

Do I have this correct… if you rent out VGC points at $23/pp you’ll have to pay ordinary income tax (let’s assume 22% because we probably have a wide range on here; I’ll ignore my 9% Oregon income tax) but can deduct the $8 maintenance fee, so the net after tax is $18-19pp? Then you have to go rent someone else’s points for your WDW stay? I’m not sure that’s worth the hassle….

I don't know about paying taxes on the rental, I haven't had to pay taxes when renting out my points before but haven't gone through a broker. But no need to go through that much hassle if one is only visiting WDW occasionally... use the rental income for a cash stay. If it's not occasional, then get a WDW based contract like SSR or PVB.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don't know about paying taxes on the rental, I haven't had to pay taxes when renting out my points before but haven't gone through a broker. But no need to go through that much hassle if one is only visiting WDW occasionally... use the rental income for a cash stay. If it's not occasional, then get a WDW based contract like SSR or PVB.

Legally, you are supposed to report and pay tax when you rent points as rental income.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Legally, you are supposed to report and pay tax when you rent points as rental income.

Even with that, I have trouble with the argument that using pricey VGC points at WDW makes sense. I wouldn't.

 

[NVDISFamily]

I really think the California licensure issue did hit them out of the blue. I know my guide couldn’t even sell me WDW points as recently as December, because I am a California resident, and he is/was not licensed here (has sold me plenty of points before, some as recently as earlier in 2022). So it may not just be that the resort is in Cal, but also the number of anticipated California resident buyers.

I didn't want to alarm the group and I have a decent gut feeling my guide might be just chatting and "stretching" the truth about an not-too-material point... He actually said he was as of our chat a few days ago the only FL agent to pass everything and get fully licensed in CA. He said many are rushing to get them and they seemed a bit caught off guard on the new educational requirements pre examination. Grains/buckets of salt recommended

 

[NVDISFamily]

Legally, you are supposed to report and pay tax when you rent points as rental income.

100% not a tax person but I've seen some report that if you use your points for more days than you rent and also rent less than 15 days you might be able to argue that you are able to avoid taxes?

https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc415

 

[AC168]

There’s an Augusta Rule … might apply.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I didn't want to alarm the group and I have a decent gut feeling my guide might be just chatting and "stretching" the truth about an not-too-material point... He actually said he was as of our chat a few days ago the only FL agent to pass everything and get fully licensed in CA. He said many are rushing to get them and they seemed a bit caught off guard on the new educational requirements pre examination. Grains/buckets of salt recommended

Well mine actually did have to pass the sale off to a California licensed agent.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I'm curious - is there some sort of minimum amount you'd need to make with a rental in order to have to report it? Or even if it was as low as a couple hundred dollars for the whole year you need to report it?

 

[nalabear]

When the new rules reporting kicks in: PayPal and Venmo of the likes will require reporting at funds over $600. So that may be the primary driver than anything.