Update from Touring Plans

[tinkpower]

I got an email from Touring Plans for our upcoming trip which is May 21-26. Several days have been moved from 8 to 5 in DL. One day DCA was moved from a 5 to a 2. This seems unlikely from the chatter her about very high crowd levels. It would be great though if they are right. Any thoughts on why it would be predicted to be slower.

 

[Agent 86]

I got the same email for dates in May which were also significantly reduced. I'm guessing that it was an error of some kind? Or maybe the crowds at Disneyland are technically a "3" but they still feel like a "9" because of all of the closures?

 

[M&MGirl1]

Just got a similar email for our trip June 1-4. I'd imagine it almost has to be some sort of error or glitch considering I'd figured if anything the crowd calculations for the 2nd would go up since they added another grad night that day.

 

[Disney Lvr of Old]

Me too for my trip in August. I was doing a huge happy dance- I know it's subjective but it gives me hope.

 

[gsrieff]

I got an email this morning as well for my dates Oct 18th-22nd. Went from an overall average of a 6 to a 4... one can only dream that its even a tiny bit accurate lol

Anyone know why they made such a large adjustment to everyones schedules? There has to be SOME logic behind it. I know I have read nothing but terrible things about crowd levels lately.

 

[lindyv321]

I got the same email... maybe with the 60th celebration winding down or maybe they have some insight on ticket sales??

 

[Princess Clayre]

I've had one too. In fact for my August dates the crowd level went up in an email a while back and now back down a bit. As I understand the crowd levels are based on ride wait times rather than the amount of people in the park. Therefore the park could still be really crowded but if not everyone is riding rides but say enjoying the atmosphere and shows it may not reflect in the crowd level.

 

[peachiepie]

I've got one of those emails for my dates in September.

 

[realrellim]

I have wondered if crowd levels might drop off after the 60th. However, that wouldn't apply to the May - August trips. I'd say that's a glitch.

I had a message shortly before our April trip that raised the crowd levels for the weekend (from a 6 or 7 to an 8 and 9, iirc) but left Monday at a 4/10. I figured Monday would be more busy, like a 6, but I'm still convinced Monday was a 10 even if they say it was only an 8 like Sunday and Saturday. It was more crowded in the park all day on Monday than it had been the previous two days. I would agree the closures definitely affect that, but the crowds (and easy of moving/crawling through the park) were noticeably higher on Monday. Also, when I looked at the breakdown of what rides they based their calculations on, I couldn't help but note that many of their rides were at a 10: Space Mountain, Alice, Mr. Toad, Peter Pan, Pirates, etc.

My honest advice is to plan for the worst at this point. I think if we'd been prepared for a crowded Monday we would have been better off. We were not prepared, and between that and all the ride breakdowns (on top of all the stuff already closed) we left the park feeling so frustrated--not the way I wanted to remember my last day in the park.

 

[Skiton]

Darn, I was so happy when they bumped everything from a 6 - 8 to a 3 - 5 for the time we're there! (Third week in May.) I guess I'll just hope that they're right but assume that they probably aren't.

 

[Zbugz]

While I like Touring Plans, I don't feel like their crowd predictions at DL are very accurate. I would interpret it as how it will be relative to every other day. Plan for crowds. Be pleasantly surprised if it is less than you expect.

 

[Granted42]

I got no such notice for my trip in the middle of June, so maybe it isn't a glitch, and just a revision of their data for those time periods.

 

[goofyfan13]

I got the update for Oct 3 - 7th. Dropped from 7s and 8s down do 4s-3s. I figured it was based on the 60th winding down, interesting to see other times changing as well.

I look a look at the historical from 2 years ago for my dates, they were rated as 4s and 5s, 6 on days with Mickey's Halloween party.

Here is tourningplans's comments on changes:
http://blog.touringplans.com/2011/06/17/my-crowd-calendar-numbers-have-changed-what-to-do/

 

[sheetz]

This makes no sense to me. The current SoCal Flex ticket promotion ends on May 26, so I would imagine there are going to be tons of locals wanting to use their tickets before they expire.

 

[lindyv321]

Our last two trips we found the touring plans estimates to be pretty accurate. But when he rides are closed I think it does make the parks feel busier even if there are less people there

 

[agamble]

Keep in mind that Touring Plans numbers are based on park attendance throughout the year. Although it isn't perfect (there are not the same number of 10's as 1's). A 3 five years ago would be a lot less busy than a 3 this year as crowds overall are up. The least busy day at Disneyland is a 1 and the most busy is a 10. But the least busy day at Disneyland in the last year was way more busy than the least busy day five years ago. They can't just say no day is ever a 1 because crowds are now so high. My guess is they looked at their crowd data for the last year and made adjustments to their calendar for the remainder of 2016.

 

[sheetz]

Keep in mind that Touring Plans numbers are based on park attendance throughout the year. Although it isn't perfect (there are not the same number of 10's as 1's). A 3 five years ago would be a lot less busy than a 3 this year as crowds overall are up. The least busy day at Disneyland is a 1 and the most busy is a 10. But the least busy day at Disneyland in the last year was way more busy than the least busy day five years ago. They can't just say no day is ever a 1 because crowds are now so high. My guess is they looked at their crowd data for the last year and made adjustments to their calendar for the remainder of 2016.

True, but as I mentioned above in response to the OP's travel plans, those dates correspond with the last few days of the SoCal Flex ticket discounts. In the past similar promotions have brought massive crowds in the finals days as locals rush to use up their tickets before they expire. I see no reason why that wouldn't be the case again.

 

[HydroGuy]

Keep in mind that Touring Plans numbers are based on park attendance throughout the year. Although it isn't perfect (there are not the same number of 10's as 1's). A 3 five years ago would be a lot less busy than a 3 this year as crowds overall are up. The least busy day at Disneyland is a 1 and the most busy is a 10. But the least busy day at Disneyland in the last year was way more busy than the least busy day five years ago. They can't just say no day is ever a 1 because crowds are now so high. My guess is they looked at their crowd data for the last year and made adjustments to their calendar for the remainder of 2016.

I used to think too that but am no longer sure that is correct. It appears TP may be ranking all days from all years together in their 1-10 system.

Read the last few posts in this thread I started: Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar

 

[Port Mom]

I received an email, too. We will be there Monday, May 30 (Memorial Day). Our rating went from 8 to 7. It wasn't a major drop, so I was just pleasantly surprised.