Upgrades are Few and FAR between. The reason you might see so much of it on this board is because it is such a big deal to get one, people will always post if they do. A good motto to follow is book a room you will be happy with because it is a good chance that is the one you will end up with.

It does seem to me though that the people who seem to have the best chance at an upgrade are people who book a guarantee room close to their sailing date. No, it doesnt mean you will not receive an upgrade because you have already received your room, but It does make your chances even smaller though. Sorry if this post seems a little depressing, that is just the way it is.

Oh, and it doesnt matter if you book with a TA or Disney, your chances will be the same.