Akoni
Earning My Ears
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2020
- Messages
- 46
Toy Story 4. The movie that many people felt was unnecessary after Toy Story 3. Box Office Pro predicted $105-130M in their long range tracking in April which seemed reasonable. I was saying about $125M OW and $430M domestic.
But now let's fast forward to May 30. The day presales hit. Presales for TS4 were reportedly above those of Incredibles 2 (which ended up with a $182.7M opening), and because of this, the trades (Deadline, Variety, Hollywood Reporter) predicted as much as $200M. More reasonable forecasts were $140-170M. Even I myself jumped on the hype train and said $155-175M so I didn't look like a fool and get downvoted on Reddit if I'd said like $125M. Then by the week of release, the general consensus was about $150-160M for the opening, with Disney spotting $140M (my opinion is they didn't want to look like fools for being too conservative had they said like $115M). Then Thursday previews hit with $12M, second best for animation behind Incredibles 2 ($18.5M in Thursday previews), and ahead of Finding Dory ($9.2M). But then, on Friday, opening day predictions were about $51M, with $135M being predicted for the opening weekend. Then after $47.4M on Friday, it was lowered to the $120-125M range. Not bad, but when it opened to "only" $120.9M (was $118M, but actuals brought it up a couple million), it was basically being spun as disappointing.
But let me make something clear. It was not a disappointment. The problem is predictions were too unrealistic and way out of hand. I mean, come on, it was almost as if they were making $200M seem like an easy goal just because the 1st day presales were ahead of Incredibles 2. Speaking of presales, presales don't even mean much now. Take Solo for example. It had better presales than freaking Black Panther but it only opened to $84M and eventually flopped. Not only that, though, apparently analysts believed it would've done more had it been released on Father's Day weekend. But Father's Day weekend is not the difference between a $120M opening and a $160M opening. The difference between maybe $120M and $130M? Yeah, possibly. But $120M to $160M? Um, yeah no. But Finding Dory and Incredibles 2 just had a lot more hype than Toy Story 4, and presales just don't indicate everything, which these are things both Disney and analysts need to understand. I think the trades just made lame excuses as to why they looked like idiots after its opening weekend, though it was mainly Deadline.
But the goal from the start was passing Toy Story 3, and that should've been the goal all along. Toy Story 4 did eventually show some strong legs (and it had great critical and audience reception, leading to its strong legs) after its not-so-promising 2nd weekend of $59.7M (a drop of 50.6%, which isn't great for animation, aside from those that release on Thanksgiving weekend, then it's fine because that's normal for the post-Thanksgiving frame), which first led people to say $375M was the ceiling. Then after it started legging, $430-440M was the new goal, with the film finishing at a strong $434M, and $1.074B worldwide, which is above Toy Story 3 ($415M domestic and $1.067B worldwide).
Sure, it didn't quite match the obnoxiously high predictions but the issue wasn't that. The issue was that the predictions were just too unrealistic to begin with. I felt my $125M prediction for opening weekend was realistic. But $200M? Oh god no. Not even the slightest bit realistic. I don't even think the $140-170M predictions were realistic either. Dory's OW was a good ceiling.
But what are your thoughts? Do you think it did well or underperformed?
But now let's fast forward to May 30. The day presales hit. Presales for TS4 were reportedly above those of Incredibles 2 (which ended up with a $182.7M opening), and because of this, the trades (Deadline, Variety, Hollywood Reporter) predicted as much as $200M. More reasonable forecasts were $140-170M. Even I myself jumped on the hype train and said $155-175M so I didn't look like a fool and get downvoted on Reddit if I'd said like $125M. Then by the week of release, the general consensus was about $150-160M for the opening, with Disney spotting $140M (my opinion is they didn't want to look like fools for being too conservative had they said like $115M). Then Thursday previews hit with $12M, second best for animation behind Incredibles 2 ($18.5M in Thursday previews), and ahead of Finding Dory ($9.2M). But then, on Friday, opening day predictions were about $51M, with $135M being predicted for the opening weekend. Then after $47.4M on Friday, it was lowered to the $120-125M range. Not bad, but when it opened to "only" $120.9M (was $118M, but actuals brought it up a couple million), it was basically being spun as disappointing.
But let me make something clear. It was not a disappointment. The problem is predictions were too unrealistic and way out of hand. I mean, come on, it was almost as if they were making $200M seem like an easy goal just because the 1st day presales were ahead of Incredibles 2. Speaking of presales, presales don't even mean much now. Take Solo for example. It had better presales than freaking Black Panther but it only opened to $84M and eventually flopped. Not only that, though, apparently analysts believed it would've done more had it been released on Father's Day weekend. But Father's Day weekend is not the difference between a $120M opening and a $160M opening. The difference between maybe $120M and $130M? Yeah, possibly. But $120M to $160M? Um, yeah no. But Finding Dory and Incredibles 2 just had a lot more hype than Toy Story 4, and presales just don't indicate everything, which these are things both Disney and analysts need to understand. I think the trades just made lame excuses as to why they looked like idiots after its opening weekend, though it was mainly Deadline.
But the goal from the start was passing Toy Story 3, and that should've been the goal all along. Toy Story 4 did eventually show some strong legs (and it had great critical and audience reception, leading to its strong legs) after its not-so-promising 2nd weekend of $59.7M (a drop of 50.6%, which isn't great for animation, aside from those that release on Thanksgiving weekend, then it's fine because that's normal for the post-Thanksgiving frame), which first led people to say $375M was the ceiling. Then after it started legging, $430-440M was the new goal, with the film finishing at a strong $434M, and $1.074B worldwide, which is above Toy Story 3 ($415M domestic and $1.067B worldwide).
Sure, it didn't quite match the obnoxiously high predictions but the issue wasn't that. The issue was that the predictions were just too unrealistic to begin with. I felt my $125M prediction for opening weekend was realistic. But $200M? Oh god no. Not even the slightest bit realistic. I don't even think the $140-170M predictions were realistic either. Dory's OW was a good ceiling.
But what are your thoughts? Do you think it did well or underperformed?
