typical price fluctuation for airlines??

[cindyfan]

Question for some of the experts at airline pricing....

I've been watching.... and waiting to see if Continental flights for May were going to go down.
When I started planning our trip a few months ago I could have gotten our flights for $220 (cleveland to orlando, non-stop) but our plans were not definite, so didn't book.
When we were sure we were going, I started watching and it's been at $250 consistantly the entire time..... all dates for May and June.
Now, I just checked and it's gone up to $270.... with no price fluctuation in dates/days.
Also, I've noticed that dates in March are starting to fluctuate depending on the date/day of week. I could get a flight for as little as $168.... but we arent' going in March... haha.

My question..... If I wait another couple weeks do you think the fair will go down?
I hate to wait and have it go up even more!
This is the first time I've ever had to pay more than $205 for a flight in over 10 years. ugh!

 

[TaraPA]

This is the million dollar question!

Yes it is normal for prices to fluctuate daily of not several times a day. But you can drive yourself crazy checking everytime you sit down at the computer (or check from your phone, iTouch, etc). I've learned to set a price in my mind that I'd be willing to pay - for instance in your situation since you saw it for $220 (but lower for March) I'd say to myself that if it went lower than $220, I'd book. Then you have to just do it & not look back! There's always a risk though too - if it keeps going up & up & up you may be stuck paying the higher fare, or looking for alternative airlines. Some companies do give a credit or voucher if you book & then the price drops, but not sure the major airlines like Continental do. I've see it happen with SW & Airtran.

Since May is so far out I think you're safe to wait awhile longer. I've waited up to 14 days prior to the flight to book - that seems to be the deadline for many airlines of when they jack the prices up, because you no longer have that 14-day advance purchase.

But you just never can be sure!

 

[cindyfan]

Thanks for the input.
Kinda what I was thinking, but sometimes I just need someone else to share their opinions.....

 

[jlewisinsyr]

Prices tend to go up more regularly then they go down. This is because flights are sold based on levels of inventory for each fare class. So for a typical flight, 5% of inventory might be set aside for the lowest fare class, the next 10% for the the next highest, etc. As each class is sold out, the fare bumps up to the next level.

Do fare sometimes come down, yes, if the airline is finding it hard to fill the flight they may drop the fares in a "sale", but that doesn't happen all that often, especially legacy airlines.

The problem with dropping fares is that it might bring in more revenue for the flight, but it might also reduce the profit as a full flight doesn't mean its profitable. So there is a balance and airlines do this, day in, and day out and have become pretty good at determining what flights will sell and what flights will have difficulties being sold. Additionally, airlines have cut capacity dramatically over the past few years and as a result, more and more flights are flying at capacity meaning that airlines don't seem to have as much issue filling the seats resulting in less fare "sales."

 

[chamonix]

Take it in stride that something you purchase should actually cost more now than it did 10 years ago. You're not even talking very much of an increase....less than inflation and certainly less than fuel costs have increased.

But.....if you really like to gamble.....even the legacy carriers sell single middle seats very very cheap--if any are even left-- at the last minute. Good luck. That doesn't work for my family, my daughter cannot fly alone in a middle. If you and your family are ok with random middle seats not near each other, and are willing to gamble there will be ANY seats left....keep watching the website.....but my real advice is that you should have bought at 220 or even 250, or even what you see now....220 was more than reasonable, you really should have jumped on that. $20 increase in 10 years?! That seems like a good deal to me.

 

[Brer Chump]

Airfare specials are currently running until March 9. When May gets closer the airfare should drop if there is ample supply.

 

[sam_gordon]

Prices tend to go up more regularly then they go down. This is because flights are sold based on levels of inventory for each fare class. So for a typical flight, 5% of inventory might be set aside for the lowest fare class, the next 10% for the the next highest, etc. As each class is sold out, the fare bumps up to the next level.

The problem is the airlines don't even stick to this model. I think everyone can understand it the way you presented it. BUT (and this is what I saw while tracking my flight prices) airlines will change what fare class is available. Ex: I book our flight 10 1/2 months out. We get the 2nd to lowest class fare (I think 'T').

Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I watch fares over the next months... it goes up one class fare, then another, and then another. Now we're at '#5' Hey, great, I saved a bunch of money, right? A couple weeks later I check back and now we're back to the #3 fare. A day or so later and #6 is the cheapest you can get. Wait a week, and you're back to #4.

We're still 6 months out, and while a handful of additional seats have been sold, the plane is still mostly empty.

 

[dis_guy]

The problem is the airlines don't even stick to this model. I think everyone can understand it the way you presented it. BUT (and this is what I saw while tracking my flight prices) airlines will change what fare class is available. Ex: I book our flight 10 1/2 months out. We get the 2nd to lowest class fare (I think 'T').

Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I watch fares over the next months... it goes up one class fare, then another, and then another. Now we're at '#5' Hey, great, I saved a bunch of money, right? A couple weeks later I check back and now we're back to the #3 fare. A day or so later and #6 is the cheapest you can get. Wait a week, and you're back to #4.

We're still 6 months out, and while a handful of additional seats have been sold, the plane is still mostly empty.

I do the same thing, lol. Just remember that the website seat maps really do not accurately show how many seats are really left. Having been involved in this business once upon a time, some seats are held back for assignment at the airport and some are held for deadheading crew, etc.

 

[jlewisinsyr]

The problem is the airlines don't even stick to this model. I think everyone can understand it the way you presented it. BUT (and this is what I saw while tracking my flight prices) airlines will change what fare class is available. Ex: I book our flight 10 1/2 months out. We get the 2nd to lowest class fare (I think 'T').

Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I watch fares over the next months... it goes up one class fare, then another, and then another. Now we're at '#5' Hey, great, I saved a bunch of money, right? A couple weeks later I check back and now we're back to the #3 fare. A day or so later and #6 is the cheapest you can get. Wait a week, and you're back to #4.

We're still 6 months out, and while a handful of additional seats have been sold, the plane is still mostly empty.

Some of this movement can be explained by changes to intineraries. Lets say someone is taking the same flight as you a T fare and they need to make a change (by choice or by force due to a change in a connection, etc.), that fare seat becomes available again because it is no longer held by someone.

Some airlines and travel agencies still will hold a ticket too, so if you check one day and the lowest fare is 6th from the bottom and the next day it's fifth or fourth, it could be there was a hold on the tickets and they were released back to inventory.

 

[sam_gordon]

I do the same thing, lol. Just remember that the website seat maps really do not accurately show how many seats are really left. Having been involved in this business once upon a time, some seats are held back for assignment at the airport and some are held for deadheading crew, etc.

But the held seats would have been held when I booked. So they should have showed as occupied/taken from the beginning.

Some of this movement can be explained by changes to intineraries. Lets say someone is taking the same flight as you a T fare and they need to make a change (by choice or by force due to a change in a connection, etc.), that fare seat becomes available again because it is no longer held by someone.

Some airlines and travel agencies still will hold a ticket too, so if you check one day and the lowest fare is 6th from the bottom and the next day it's fifth or fourth, it could be there was a hold on the tickets and they were released back to inventory.

That's possible. Didn't think about it that way. But it's hard to imagine that 6-10 months out there's that many people "holding" & changing tickets.

 

[jlewisinsyr]

But the held seats would have been held when I booked. So they should have showed as occupied/taken from the beginning.


That's possible. Didn't think about it that way. But it's hard to imagine that 6-10 months out there's that many people "holding" & changing tickets.

One person can effect the fare classes depending on your search (ie. 2 passengers).

 

[backyardponder]

Have you looked at Southwest (www.southwest.com)? For May they are currently at about $230 round trip. June is a lot more (about $310 RT).

there are 2 advantages of SW...bags fly free...each person can check 2 bags up to 50 pounds each (100 pounds total) with no charge. Also, if fares go down you can re-book at the lower fare and use the credit up to 1 year after the initial purchase.

From my experience fares are higher this time of the year...folks buying as gifts. They might go down in January...or they might go up!

 

[cindyfan]

Take it in stride that something you purchase should actually cost more now than it did 10 years ago. You're not even talking very much of an increase....less than inflation and certainly less than fuel costs have increased.

...but my real advice is that you should have bought at 220 or even 250, or even what you see now....220 was more than reasonable, you really should have jumped on that. $20 increase in 10 years?! That seems like a good deal to me.

You didn't pay much attention to my OP.....
First... I didn't say that the price was more than it was 10 years ago....... Of course prices go up. I said that the most I've paid in the last 10 years was 205! I paid as little as 180 just 18 months ago!! and I almost went this spring at $168 for round trip!! but couldn't get the time off then.
Second.... I didn't "jump on" the 220 because our dates were not decided! I could have booked at 250, but when I checked on the seating.... all flights during my time frams were practically empty! So I didn't expect an increase so quickly.

Brer Chump.... thanks for the info. I was thinking the same thing.... still most flights for my time frame are very empty! Which I hope will bring the price down a bit.

thanks!!

 

[PrincessArlena'sDad]

One thing you can do is try bing travel. They have a price tracker that shows what fairs have done (but only from within 90 of departure, so it won't have May yet). They also predict whether the fares will go up and down. I've been watching it for DCA-MCO for quite awhile, to see how accurate it would be for me when it was time for me to book, and they were dead on.

When we finally picked our dates last month, bing travel said to wait, and I did (they were around $190 r/t). When it fell to $162, it said buy, and I did. Now the flights are $240 (and it says wait again). I'm tracking them, still, because I got AirTran, so I'll get a credit if I see the price drops.

I put random May dates in (you didn't specify your exact dates) and it said to wait. I'd put your exact dates in, and follow their advice.

 

[Alexander]

I purchased our one-way, non-stop flight for 12/17 from ROC to MCO at least 6 months ago (maybe more) for $79. They quickly jumped to over $200, I was so glad I grabbed them when I did. Fast forward to this week (7 days before we are leaving) and they have dropped to $90. I'm sure a bunch of people who paid $200+ are going to be quite angry!

However, that is the gamble you take with airline prices. You really have absolutely no way of knowing what is going to happen! You need to have a price in mind that you can live with and when you find flights at that price, you book them. They may go down, but they may not. It is a gamble!

 

[cindyfan]

One thing you can do is try bing travel. They have a price tracker that shows what fairs have done (but only from within 90 of departure, so it won't have May yet). They also predict whether the fares will go up and down. I've been watching it for DCA-MCO for quite awhile, to see how accurate it would be for me when it was time for me to book, and they were dead on.

When we finally picked our dates last month, bing travel said to wait, and I did (they were around $190 r/t). When it fell to $162, it said buy, and I did. Now the flights are $240 (and it says wait again). I'm tracking them, still, because I got AirTran, so I'll get a credit if I see the price drops.

I put random May dates in (you didn't specify your exact dates) and it said to wait. I'd put your exact dates in, and follow their advice.

THANKS for your advise!!! I've never heard of bing travel, so I will try it!

 

[PrincessArlena'sDad]

THANKS for your advise!!! I've never heard of bing travel, so I will try it!

You're welcome

Let us know how it goes!

 

[cindyfan]

You're welcome

Let us know how it goes!

Well..... fares dropped $10 to $260
but Bing suggested to wait.
So I think I will wait. I think with the holidays and people purchasing "gift" flights it's a bit higher. But I will keep checking every day.

Thanks!!

 

[PrincessArlena'sDad]

Well..... fares dropped $10 to $260
but Bing suggested to wait.
So I think I will wait. I think with the holidays and people purchasing "gift" flights it's a bit higher. But I will keep checking every day.

Thanks!!

If you're able to, it'd be best to check a few times per day. Occaisonally, there is a sale that only lasts a few hours. If you look closely at the fare history, you can see this.

 

[elainesj]

There are tracking sites that will track flight prices for you and kep you updated on changes. I still haven't managed to use them sucessfully though. (prob not patient enough LOL)

I just discovered orbitz will send you a check if prices drop - even without you telling them or noticing it!

I don't know a whole lot about this, but I think I'm buying my tickets on orbitz next time instead of expedia! My flight dropped from $300 to $150. I snagged it and was thrilled. The next day it dropped to around $100 or so. I was peeved...but all in all, I got a great price so can't really complain. Still, with Orbitz I could have gotten reimbursed.

E