Two more storms heading flor way

[offtheice]

Just to let everyone know that is planning on going next week ,there is another tropical storm and hurricane right behind it taking the same path that charley took . Beware..

 

[Luckymommyx2]

I've been hearing about this next storm/hurricane as well. My in-laws were supposed to be moving into their house in Naples this week and may hold off a few extra days, just in case. I really hope this storm does not hit the poor people that are still recovering from Charley, or anyone else.

 

[DemoBri1]

Just to clarify everyone. If you are planning on going down in the next couple of weeks, I'd suggest checking out the National Hurricane Center website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for updated forecasts.

Contrary to what the OP states, the storm that is now currently a hurricane is forecast to head directly out to sea, and not come anywhere near the mainland. The second storm, which is now still a Tropical Storm is showing a similar path to Charley, but we all know how many times Charley changed paths before making landfall.

Let's hope that we don't get another Charley!!

Brian

 

[Luckymommyx2]

Thanks for the link Brian...I'll pass it on to my in-laws!

 

[DemoBri1]

Luckymommy,

You're quite welcome.

 

[mikeymars]

Demo is correct - the OP meant well, but was incorrect in stating that "two morestorms heading Flor (presumably, "Florida") way.

Hurricane Danielle is currently way out in the Atlantic, nowhere near Florida, and in fact isn't predicted to get anywhere near North America (as shown below):

Tropical storm Earl (not yet a hurricane) is currently forecast to keep moving to the northwest (as shown below), slowly curving north as it moves into the Caribbean, which would potentially take it towards Texas, Mississippi or Alabama, not Florida. That's because Earl's path -- while vaguely similar to the one Charley took -- is too western too early (Earl is too early - yuk yuk)

Anyway, for Earl to go towards Florida, within the next three days he is going to have to start moving much more Northeast, e.g. take a hard 45 degree + right turn.

Possible? Yes (anything is possible). Base on historic Hurricane paths, statistically likely? No.

 

[DaisyDebbie]

I will be at OKW next week, Earl better go somewhere else

 

[RuthnPaul]

Originally posted by DemoBri1
Contrary to what the OP states, the storm that is now currently a hurricane is forecast to head directly out to sea, and not come anywhere near the mainland. The second storm, which is now still a Tropical Storm is showing a similar path to Charley, but we all know how many times Charley changed paths before making landfall.

DemoBri1, I'm in agreement with you totally! The forecasters could not pinpoint where Charlie would come on land in the hours before it hit; there's just no way to accurately determine what's going to happen over the course of a few days or week. I think your suggestion to monitor the National Hurricane Center is sound!

 

[rinkwide]

Uh-oh, looks like I might be meeting Earl in Corpus Christy next week.

 

[mikeymars]

Originally posted by rinkwide
Uh-oh, looks like I might be meeting Earl in Corpus Christy next week.

Per the last NOAA update below, highly unlikely:

 

[Luckymommyx2]

Yeah, my in-laws decided to head on down to their house in Naples this morning. I think it was a good idea that they went ahead and left.

 

[offtheice]

Originally posted by mikeymars
Demo is correct - the OP meant well, but was incorrect in stating that "two morestorms heading Flor (presumably, "Florida") way.

Hurricane Danielle is currently way out in the Atlantic, nowhere near Florida, and in fact isn't predicted to get anywhere near North America (as shown below):

Tropical storm Earl (not yet a hurricane) is currently forecast to keep moving to the northwest (as shown below), slowly curving north as it moves into the Caribbean, which would potentially take it towards Texas, Mississippi or Alabama, not Florida. That's because Earl's path -- while vaguely similar to the one Charley took -- is too western too early (Earl is too early - yuk yuk)

Anyway, for Earl to go towards Florida, within the next three days he is going to have to start moving much more Northeast, e.g. take a hard 45 degree + right turn.

Possible? Yes (anything is possible). Base on historic Hurricane paths, statistically likely? No.

I was just reporting what the weather channel was reporting at the time of post. EVery one that has lived through hurricanes knows they change directions 10,000 different times along with becoming a hurricane to being down graded to a trop storm to being a hurricane back again. All I reported was what the weather channel said at that moment. The two storms are taking the same path that charley did. Infact charley changed 4 times before going around the gulf to flor.

 

[beattyfamily]

From what I can see they both do not seem to be a threat to Florida any longer!

 

[rinkwide]

Originally posted by mikeymars
Per the last NOAA update below, highly unlikely:

Hooray! As the Dixie Chicks might say; "Goodbye Earl".

 

[Mike]

Originally posted by rinkwide
Hooray! As the Dixie Chicks might say; "Goodbye Earl".

Classic ... you know there just aren't enough good Dixie Chicks quotes on this board

 

[mikeymars]

Originally posted by offtheice
I reported was what the weather channel said at that moment. The two storms are taking the same path that charley did. In fact charley changed 4 times before going around the gulf to flor.

????

Danielle is way out in the Atlantic and heading north, which is completely different than what Charley did. There's no similarity whatsoever in her path to that of Charley. None.

As for Earl, he's in fact no longer even a tropical storm (per the NOAA update below, which on their site is headlined "EARL DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE..."), and what's left of him is moving west.

Charley never degenerated, and moved north immediately after entering the Caribbean, so I don't see how anyone can say that "Earl" (which actually no longer deserves a name, it's not even a storm at this point) is on a path "similar" to Charley.

Nor is he going to magically change tomorrow - the likelihood that "Earl" is going to (a) suddenly reorganize and (b) make a 180 degree U turn towards Florida is about as high as Eisner resigning tomorrow.

Or stated differently, to imply that either of these weather systems is a some sort of major potential threat to WDW is silly.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 161420
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

...EARL DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EARL UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

[MinnieFan4ever]

Mikeymars- Thanks for the update on "Earl" That's great news that he has been downgraded. We are heading to Vero Thursday and on to WDW the next week.