The crowds were predicted to be 2/3 when we were there in September and the wait was always 45 minutes or more. However, the crowd level was upgraded on one of those days to an 8, so it's hard to say. It definitely was a long line regardless, but the ride is a ton of fun!
What crowd calendar are you using? 1s and 2s seem overly optimistic, unless you are going to HS on a recommended day. Even then I'd expect to see wait times of 60 minutes long before mid day.
I was there in Sept on a Level 1 day and we still waited 45 minutes for TSM around 11:30 a.m. The biggest rides in the parks (especially one with as few as DHS) will still have long lines at the headliners midday.
we're planning a trip in late January / Early Feb and easywdw has predicted 1s and 2s on some of those days. I still expect TSM to be fairly busy - that ride always has a line unless it is bucketing rain!
I will say, that for people like us who are used to much larger crowds, if I saw a 45 minute wait for TSMM in the middle of the day I would do a double take and consider waiting. On the other hand, because we probably would have ridden at opening with no wait, we probably wouldn't care what the standby line is in the middle of the day.
60 minutes is what I would expect...even on the lowest crowd days. I try to always go in September when there are some of the lowest crowds of the year...and unless you get there at rope drop or right before closing...you are looking at an hour wait standby. There are always exceptions and flukes...but if you want to be realistic I would expect at least an hour wait without a FP+.
I wish the week of Jan 5 was going to be a 2!!! We will be there Jan 3-7 and crowd levels range from 5-9 the entire time. Our HS day is going to be a 7, because that was the lowest we could get.
OP, we went to HS one time when it was a 2 or 3 and there was still a 60-80 minute wait.
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