Tropical threat?? Leaving in 9 days...

[MEC004]

Are they predicting 100 mph winds here at WDW?

Last time I checked the map it said Cat 1 force over Orlando which is sustained winds between 74-95 mph with gusts of more.

 

[gorkt]

Stay safe everyone!

 

[MEC004]

The bigger issue with this storm is the amount of rain that has been forecasted. Not Harvey, but TS Allison amounts with 25 inches or more in the Orlando/Tampa area. Do they have the drainage necessary for this amount of rain in a short period of time?

 

[Lehuaann]

Last time I checked the map it said Cat 1 force over Orlando which is sustained winds between 74-95 mph with gusts of more.

Ok, last I checked it was TS force. We are back in the room to check the news. Thanks

 

[JLTraveling]

Are they predicting 100 mph winds here at WDW?

Good question. It keeps changing by the minute. But what I do know is what happened with Ida last year. It was predicted to come in as a weakening Cat 1/tropical storm. It actually hit as a rapidly strengthening Cat 4/5. And it didn't do the normal thing of slowing down when it hit land. It was well over 100 miles inland before it lost much strength. WDW is about 100 miles as the crow flies from where it's making landfall, and currently predicted to be in or near the eyewall as it passes through.

I'm not a meteorologist and I don't have a crystal ball. It could decide to follow the normal rules. But I'd rather people be aware that a VERY strong and damaging hurricane going directly over WDW IS one of the possibilities here.

 

[Tiggerette]

I don't know that the heavy trees would become projectiles as much as you're giving off. Smaller trees and limbs yes but if you're talking about soggy ground the big heavy trees most often I see pull up from the ground and end up on their side a lot of times still connected to the ground. Now if there's a building structure like a resort room (which poly had a close one to the building for Irma) you could get damage there from falling down.

As far as Disney's buildings the little things attached to it I would be far more concerned about being hurled about because they can be more easily ripped off. I do hope that with the increased strength/gravity of Ian that they've done more than just tie pool loungers and benches in the parks together like they did for Irma because I'm not sure that's going to do it for this one.

I came back from Ida to see many trees that I grew up with on their side. I never realized how much their canopy was like an old friend. Seeing so much sky really impressed on me their absence.

Saturated soil can make it easier for trees to topple. Trees that have many roots but are closer to the top soil than very deep roots can be impacted by strong winds, as are trees that don't tend to sway easily. (Think sturdy oak compared to bending palm.) Whole trees may topple, broken off limbs may fly a small or medium distance. I've never seen a javelin's throw distance for limbs, but nearby limbs can land wherever physics take it, whether it's on the ground, on a roof, in a window... it's physics.

Just now the weather center (via WESH reporting) is reporting that Orange County has environment favourable to tornadoes. Like any crisis situation, it's important to just take a breath and remain calm, if you can. If folx are lucky enough to be on Disney property, they will assess the area to help you know where it's safe to walk afterwards. Leaning trees, siding half on/ half off, typical storm damage will be assessed and guests will be told where it's safe to be. They have a vested interest to protect property, staff and guests. Big hugs!

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Have you ever huddled with your family in your bathroom all night long, while your solidly built house shifted on its foundation and you could feel the walls swaying? I did, last year, when Ida slammed through New Orleans. And Ian looks to be pretty much the exact same storm. Most people here either A) have never actually been through a hurricane or B) have been through lots of standard normal hurricanes that follow the standard normal rules. But this is not that type of storm. I'd rather see "fearmongering" that makes people take it seriously than the whole "eh, it'll be fine" mentality that can lead to loss of life.

I'm in constant contact with my DISer friends in Orlando, we actually plan on doing our weekly movie nights tonight where we watch a movie on Disney+ and chat during it with the understanding they could lose power during it. We've opted to start an hour earlier than normal due to that.

This would be their first experience with FL hurricanes like this being so close to Orlando since they've moved there (one moved in 2019 the other couple in 2020). I'm sure they aren't as prepared as seasoned warriors but I trust with our friendship that if they become very anxious/worried/etc they will let us know. We'll be in contact with them (as we are nearly daily anyhow).

The one that moved in 2019 had never experienced a tornado when he lived where we live in KC prior to moving to Orlando (he was from CA) so we helped him through it the first time he had a tornado warning in his apartment complex (because you do not have a basement to go to). Thankfully that person was not here when an EF4 (that had been an EF1,2 and 3 on it's crazy long path of almost 31miles with a top out rate of 170mph) came through about 3 1/2 years ago. Side note if anyone from the Midwest tells you they are nonchalant about actual tornadoes right by them barreling down on you they are lying or nutty because that's not what we actually do when a tornado is right by us. Taking video or photos is the last thing my butt would be doing because I'm in my basement (or in the inner most interior room often the bathroom when I lived in places that didn't have a basement). Anywho back to FL

 

[BorderTenny]

I’ve been watching and listening to the local wildlife around the parks and resorts. The tree frogs outside of our room are going crazy.

Also, does anyone know if this is normal? Tons of white birds along the Epcot drawbridge canal last night. I’m sure it is, but I’ve never seen it before, and the CMs don’t know.

View attachment 706110

I've definitely seen it before. I think it's where the Ibises hang out when they're not out pestering guests looking for food.

 

[Lehuaann]

I've definitely seen it before. I think it's where the Ibises hang out when they're not out pestering guests looking for food.

Thanks! I can’t believe I’ve somehow missed this all these years

 

[MEC004]

ABC News just said that it’s around 70 mph. So a strong TS or Cat 1 when it comes to Orlando.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

The bigger issue with this storm is the amount of rain that has been forecasted. Not Harvey, but TS Allison amounts with 25 inches or more in the Orlando/Tampa area. Do they have the drainage necessary for this amount of rain in a short period of time?

I've been wondering lately about MK with the stories about flooding (which yes happens from time to time in the parks but still). Last night the expected rainfall was higher than it's looking like with a heavier amount outlined much larger than me checking right now (1pmcentral though created as of 7am eastern)



That pink area was a lot bigger and encompassed more Orlando last night it's now much smaller. Pink is 15+ inches and red is 10+ inches and orange is 6+. They are close to sorta lower impact, middle impact and a shot at being much higher impact.

I'm going to keep checking throughout the day especially towards when we're supposed to start our movie watching tonight and see if it's updated further.

 

[revdon64]

They can withstand 100 mph wind, not 100 mph trees coming out of soggy ground. And there are a whole lot of those.

In the immortal words of Ron White, "It's not THAT the wind is blowin', it's WHAT the wind is blowin'."

 

[Mango7100]

Come on... No one needs the fearmongering

I don’t think it’s fearmongering to point out the severe issues this storm could bring. I have seen a lot of posts across numerous threads where it seems people really don’t get that this is a massive storm with potential for historical flooding and damage. I have heard time again—“Don’t worry, you are safe at Disney.“ Yes, Disney has the electric power capabilities and building reinforcements that other places don’t. However, Disney is not some magic bubble immune to the forces of nature. The safest place to be in a hurricane is in an area not experiencing a hurricane. There are some posts that people think that the storm will blow through quick (because that is what happened with another storm years ago), but by Friday everything will be normal. The parks will be open, gas and power will be plentiful, the airport will be operating normal at 11 am, etc. No one knows. I don’t think anyone is telling people to crawl in a corner and cry for 2 days. I think people are pointing out that there may be more disruption and adverse issues than some people are considering.

 

[MEC004]

I've been wondering lately about MK with the stories about flooding (which yes happens from time to time in the parks but still). Last night the expected rainfall was higher than it's looking like with a heavier amount outlined much larger than me checking right now (1pmcentral though created as of 7am eastern)

View attachment 706119

That pink area was a lot bigger and encompassed more Orlando last night it's now much smaller. Pink is 15+ inches and red is 10+ inches and orange is 6+. They are close to sorta lower impact, middle impact and a shot at being much higher impact.

I'm going to keep checking throughout the day especially towards when we're supposed to start our movie watching tonight and see if it's updated further.

This is a lot better than it looked last night. It must be moving faster! Which is a great thing for a storm this size.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

This is a lot better than it looked last night. It must be moving faster! Which is a great thing for a storm this size.

I'm hoping it keeps tracking this way, I'm not sure how frequently they do a expected rainfall update but I'll def. be checking.

 

[Bianca and Bernard]

WDW area is under a Tornado watch.
DFB posted a video from WDW on their Twitter feed, of the current winds.

 

[Scalemaster34]

WDW area is under a Tornado watch.
DFB posted a video from WDW on their Twitter feed, of the current winds.

I will point out that "if" a window or roof fails... the stairwells would in most cases be the safest place to be. Hope for the best, but have a plan if the worst happens.

 

[Suz333]

I’ve been watching and listening to the local wildlife around the parks and resorts. The tree frogs outside of our room are going crazy.

Also, does anyone know if this is normal? Tons of white birds along the Epcot drawbridge canal last night. I’m sure it is, but I’ve never seen it before, and the CMs don’t know.

View attachment 706110

Yes, those birds there are normal. I’ve noticed them during normal weather when crossing the bridge. It’s a great perch for them.

 

[CalvaryMike]

I feel conflicted. I'm scheduled to be there next week for leisure. How can I be there with all this devastation? I'm in California. I wish I could load all my tools up in my truck and help. I actually get more satisfaction from helping than being in vacation. I'm considering canceling my trip. I don't think I'll be able to enjoy myself.

 

[JulieBeeRN]

I will point out that "if" a window or roof fails... the stairwells would in most cases be the safest place to be. Hope for the best, but have a plan if the worst happens.