Tropical Storm Hanna - THURSDAY AM (final) update in post #40

[knomers]

okw 9/5-9/13

 

[aclov]

Leaving Sunday, Sept 7th. Thanks for the updates! My parents are worried about this, hopefully we'll be fine.

 

[smacky1]

Great updates! Thanks. I dont even turn on the weather channel! I just check for your updates.

 

[SandyCA]

Jim, thank you so much for keeping all of us abreast of the TS/Hurricanes. Your information is greatly appreciated. My sister and I will be coming in on 9/20, so I am keeping an eye on Josephine. I will be monitoring your updates very closely to see if she or anything else that might come up will significantly affect our trip.

 

[fireside1868]

Jim

Thank you for your response to my questions. Hanna seems to be a very unpredictable storm. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight on this topic. Please keep posting updates you are helping me keep my pregnant wife calm with your posts.

Stay away Ike and Josephine

Thanks

 

[BigEeyore]

Yikes - we are due to check in at HHI on Sunday, and that is right in Hanna's path for a direct hit. Hopefully it won't be too bad and hit on Friday, so that things are starting to blow over by Sunday...we might cancel this trip though!

 

[JimMIA]

Yikes - we are due to check in at HHI on Sunday, and that is right in Hanna's path for a direct hit. Hopefully it won't be too bad and hit on Friday, so that things are starting to blow over by Sunday...we might cancel this trip though!

If Hanna hits on Friday as forecast, it will be long gone by Sunday and the weather should be good.

Problem is...this storm is just stone cold crazzzy!

Tropical systems almost never go SW, they very rarely go south, and they definitely do NOT ever go SE. This storm, since last night, has gone SW, S, SW, and then SE most of the day.

A little while ago, Hanna looked like she bumped into Haiti and bounced off. The satellite loop looks like a basketball bouncing off a backboard! I've never seen a storm appear to do a complete 180.

ETA: Here's a link to the satellite loop of Hanna - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

So unless that is a blip, Hanna may have started her NW movement. A few hours should tell, and we should definitely should know by morning. I was hoping she would crash into the mountains of Haiti, but that didn't happen and the storm looks visually a lot better than it did this morning.

We'll see where she is and how she looks tomorrow AM.

 

[smacky1]

DH and I were just saying how funny looking the path was that hanna has taken so far.....I never pay attention to the weather and even I thought it was strange! Thanks again for the update.

 

[KELLY]

Thanks for the update. I'll check in again tommorow. We leave Sat. I'm hoping for a smooth flight

 

[smacky1]

KELLY:
I just noticed you are from Wells ME. We are from Berwick so not too far from you. I worked in Ogunquit for many years at the Lobster Pound and even lived on Church Street in Wells across from the beach one winter. I hope you have a safe trip. We will be at BCV 9/7-9/13.

 

[JimMIA]

It's very hard to tell where Hanna is and which direction she's going this morning. The NHC says she is just north of Haiti and moving East at 5 MPH, but you can't see the center of the storm on the satellite imagery. The satellite loops look like the center is actually 100 miles or so NE of the NHC coordinates, but it's unlikely they are that far off. We should have a much better idea by the 11 AM advisory.

Instead of doing a 180 reversal like it looked like last night, Hanna appears to be doing a very slow counterclockwise 360 degree turn and should be heading NW later today or this evening. Depending on the width of that turn, she may be somewhat further east than the current forecast track shows. We'll just have to wait to see what she does when she finally starts moving in a predictable way.

Right now, the forecast track calls for Hanna to plod generally NW along the east side of the Bahamas today and tomorrow, and then really take off on Friday and hit SC somewhere on Saturday. But, as always, that is subject to change.

Tropical Stork Ike is about 1200-1500 miles due east of Hanna, roaring westward at about 18 MPH. Ike is expected to reach hurricane force by this afternoon and is currently projected to be in the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos area by Sunday. The current track for Ike shows the storm bending slightly north and then bending partway back down toward the south by the weekend. The more reliable models show a slightly more southerly track, but it's really way too early to read much into that.

 

[Luckymommyx2]

I'm very nervous about all of the activity in the Atlantic. We leave on the 13th for a surprise trip to OKW. I'm not the best flyer as it is and the flights in and out worry me more than anything. Just get me down and back safely and with as little turbulence as possible.

 

[knomers]

We are arriving for our trip on Friday morning (hopefully) at 10 am. Can you give me an update of what we should expect?

 

[JimMIA]

I'm very nervous about all of the activity in the Atlantic. We leave on the 13th for a surprise trip to OKW. I'm not the best flyer as it is and the flights in and out worry me more than anything. Just get me down and back safely and with as little turbulence as possible.

Actually, this is really just a normal level of activity. Most of the stuff you see out in the Atlantic never comes close to affecting us. Whatever you see now should be gone by the 13th. Of course, that doesn't mean something won't take its place...

 

[JimMIA]

We are arriving for our trip on Friday morning (hopefully) at 10 am. Can you give me an update of what we should expect?

It depends on how quickly Hanna moves and how big she gets geographically as she starts to intensify.

Right now, Hanna is projected to be 150 miles or so east of Central Florida on Friday morning. If she stays that far off, she shouldn't really affect flying that much. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[BigEeyore]

I can't remember seeing the meteorologists so confused about a hurricane as they are about Hanna. The longer it dwindles...so do my hopes of our long weekend in HHI.

 

[JimMIA]

I can't remember seeing the meteorologists so confused about a hurricane as they are about Hanna. The longer it dwindles...so do my hopes of our long weekend in HHI.

It's not the meterologists who are confused, it's the storm. Hanna was weird on her first day as a lowly Invest! She's been nuts for two weeks. But that's the way these storms are sometimes. That's why you see so many qualifying phrases in the forecasts.

If you want to see something bizarre, go to Weather Underground and click on Hanna's "Interactive Flash Map." Click the + zoom a couple of times and see what she's been up to for the last couple of days.

The forecasters are actually fairly confident in their predictions now; it's just taking Hanna a bit to get going. She's moving about 10 MPH now and her structure is looking better, so she'll be easier from here on out.

 

[flechette]

FWIW - NC National Guard is being activated to be ready to respond to this for the next 5 -7 days

3 guesses as to how I know this?

Hubby has been informed being gone still by Sept 19th (we leave for Hawaii) will result in me being very very very unhappy~

 

[lauriegs]

thanks Jim, for all the input! keeping my eye on all these storms!

 

[JimMIA]

This will be the last update on Hanna, unless she makes a radical change in direction. It does not look like Hanna is going to have much effect on VB and probably no effect on WDW.

Hanna is still a tropical storm and is located east of the southern Bahamas moving NW at 11 MPH. She is expected to continue moving NW, paralleling the Bahamas and well offshore of Florida for the next two days. There are no watches or warnings issued for Hanna in Florida. Some rain activity could be felt, but it should be intermittent.

On Friday, she is expected to regain Category 1 hurricane status and begin turning to the right, eventually going N or NE. Hanna is projected to hit the US in the area of the SC/NC border very early Saturday AM as a Cat 1 storm.

Although she is "only" going to be a Cat 1 storm, that is still plenty strong enough to cause serious damage, so anyone along the Ga, SC, or NC coasts should certainly keep an eye on Hanna.