Tropical Storm Erika - Keep an Eye Out

[SeilerBird]

oh the joys of living in South Florida, I know, I used to live there years ago

It doesn't matter where you live, natural disasters are a fact of life. You can't escape them. Florida is no more dangerous than anywhere else.

 

[nat8199]

It would take at least a Cat 3 heading straight over Disney for me to worry about my Disney vacation being ruined. That is, as long as I can fly in before they start cancelling flights. A 1 or 2 would just be a bad storm for a day and then fun for the rest of the week.

 

[NewmanFamily6]

Count us in too! We are flying in Sunday morning rain or shine. It may be the wettest trip ever but we are determined to find some magic.

 

[ucfknight]

Just want to remind everyone not to look at the center-line of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) prediction and think your vacation is ruined for sure. Hurricanes tracks 5 days out are hard to predict in general, and this particular storm is even harder to predict than most. I certainly wouldn't be worried yet, but still keep an eye on it. As the NHC said in their 5am discussion:

Given the uncertainty, this is a good time to remind users
that average NHC track forecast errors over the past 5 years are 180
miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.

The average miss is 240 miles. So even if a storm were predicted to be directly over Orlando in 5 days, the average error could take it to Key West or Savannah, GA. And that's the average which includes many storms which are much easier to predict than this one. So for every couple they nail in the 5 day forecast, that means they might be off by 500 miles for another one.

This particular storm has a lot of uncertainty with it. Some models have it staying very weak (some even have it completely dissipating) and skirting the coast of Cuba. It would have no effect on Walt Disney World at all. Other models have it strengthening rapidly in a few days, which would likely mean it would turn North before reaching the Bahamas and then would head Northeast out to sea. In which case it would also have no effect on Walt Disney World at all.

 

[bear_mom]

As long as they don't cancel out KTTK tour, all will be good.

 

[Nermel9]

Just hope flights don't get affected next Friday! It will be gone by then right?

 

[pwrflpills]

We live in West Palm area and are headed up Friday morning. Should only need ponchos for the weekend as the usual 60% chance of rain continues through the weekend. Just hoping I don't have to do shutters Sunday night.

The good news for visitors from out of state is hurricanes/t. storms come and go. It's not like you'll be socked with a week of downpours (outside of regular Florida summer rain). You'll get a stormy day and possibly deal with some closures, but this is no Charlie.

 

[ParrotBill]

Here is a good analysis from a hurricane expert:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3088

This storm has good probability to be a cat 1 hurricane and to make a Florida landfall (first in 10 years!)... but lots could still happen. If it tracks slightly south it will interact with Hispanola and Cuba which will take energy and organization out of it. If it does hit, at Category 1 it's not going to be a disaster if people are sensible. As for WDW, it will be a tropical wave before it really affects the area and will bring wind and rain for a day... All hurricanes that have come ashore were not a big threat for Orlando. Worst case is parks close a half day and people asked to stay in their resorts (and campground closed up.) That's only happened once or twice that I can remember. Most times it's just a rain event and some attractions are closed.

 

[BradChristian]

Just into my work's newsroom:

STATE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER ACTIVATES TO LEVEL TWO
IN PREPARATION FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – At 8 a.m. EDT today, the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) in Tallahassee activated to partial activation, as current forecast models now indicate Florida is within Tropical Storm Erika’s five-day cone of error.

The State Emergency Response Team (SERT) continues to monitor the developing storm, as it prepares for any weather-related impacts Erika may bring to the state.

“Too many variables still exist for us to be able to accurately predict where this storm might impact us or how strong it may be if it does,” said FDEM Director Bryan W. Koon. “We are preparing the protective and responsive measures we will need if the storm continues to develop out of an abundance of caution.”

Florida residents and visitors should continue to monitor local news for further instructions, ensure disaster supply kits are fully stocked and plans are in place to remain safe in the event that that Tropical Storm Erika does impact the state.

The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 – November 30. For additional information about severe weather in Florida, and to Get A Plan, visit FloridaDisaster.org and FLGetAPlan.com. Follow the SERT on social media on Twitter at @FLSERT and Facebook at www.Facebook.com/FloridaSERT.

# # #

 

[andyman8]

(first in 10 years!)

I know! The one year that the last thing I needed on top of everything was a hurricane... I still remember running outside during Wilma's eye to give our neighbor her birthday gift (it was her birthday; talk about bad luck) and we all sang happy birthday before quickly scurrying back into ours homes.

Anyways, the latest forecast still doesn't guarantee this thing doesn't dissipate near the Bahamas, but if it doesn't, the likely path brings it over us. My concern is that over the last few updates the individual computer models are narrowing closer to us. Look, while the jury's still out to an extent, I'm one to follow the belief that if the pros say it's probably coming, I ought to prepare and make plans as if it's coming. Luckily for WDW vacationers, by the time this gets to WDW, it's likely it'll be just a tropical storm. I wouldn't expect anything less than that unless this thing dissipates before making landfall in FL. Now, because y'all will probably be in hotels and such, it's not a huge deal. You're talking about a tremendous amount of rainfall and gusty, gusty winds for about 24 hours (Mon-Tues). I would strongly suggest you just stay in your hotel as Disney does a fantastic job of putting on entertainment and small games and such in the hotels during hurricanes, but by Tuesday afternoon, I'd imagine everything will be fine, so unless you're only flying in for 2-3 days (so losing a day would really set you back), I'd say just keep your vacation plans. Now, if you're flying in or out sometime late Monday to early Tuesday, you definitely want to keep an eye out on this and any notifications from your airline, because if it follows this track, flights'll be effected for sure.

 

[mydisneykids]

Ugh. We are due to move my daughter in for the college program on Monday. We are driving down over the weekend so I am not worried about that. But the thought of her having to move in during nasty weather. And the fact that my son and I made a mini vacation out if it and were planning on spending Tuesday in the parks has me a bit concerned.

 

[tessiesevin]

On our very first trip to Disney (20 years ago) we were all adults no kids. Florida was evacuating for a hurricane. When we checked in we were told we could cancel. We decided to weather the storm. When it came through it was downgraded to a tropical storm. It worked out well but had a lot of rain. It could have went very bad for us. I couldn't imagine being locked up in your hotel room with no electricity ! I don't know if that has ever happened but boy that be a wasted trip. I may be wrong but I don't ever recall Disney having been hit with a hurricane to a point of shutting down. I know a few tropical storms came through but not a hurricane.

 

[Pemeberly]

What's flying into MCO like during a storm/tropical storm hit? Will we be SOL, or do they still fly in, mayhap just delayed?

We are flying now first flight out of NYC on Thursday morning. As long as we can get in, I don't care too much what happens at the parks.

Otherwise: what are some good alternatives if a flight is cancelled? We can't reschedule this trip and need to get down one way or another. Driving straight from NYC is impossible, but maybe we can fly in somewhere else and drive from there?

 

[BobC]

Ill be there Saturday thru Tuesday.

Looks like Monday will be a washout.... ugh.

I'll take a rainy day locked inside WL vs a sunny day in Indiana any day though!

 

[BobC]

What's flying into MCO like during a storm/tropical storm hit? Will we be SOL, or do they still fly in, mayhap just delayed?

We are flying now first flight out of NYC on Thursday morning. As long as we can get in, I don't care too much what happens at the parks.

Otherwise: what are some good alternatives if a flight is cancelled? We can't reschedule this trip and need to get down one way or another. Driving straight from NYC is impossible, but maybe we can fly in somewhere else and drive from there?

If it's severe enough, flights will be cancelled/delayed. If it's just rain or a simple storm, no issues. Hurricanes or severe TSs, no airline will risk it and cancel/delay flights.

We're on step 2 of 12 though based on this storm and alot can happen the next 3-4 days regarding it's trajectory. I say hope for the best right now that it will alter it's course.

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

The weather folks will tell you (when they are being honest) that they will not have a good handle on where and how fast the storm will be going, until 48 hours out.

I find this site pretty good to watch: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/

Batten down the hatchs Matey!

AKK

 

[andyman8]

I may be wrong but I don't ever recall Disney having been hit with a hurricane to a point of shutting down. I know a few tropical storms came through but not a hurricane.

Actually, MK has had to close for hurricanes five times: Floyd, Frances, Charlie, Jeane, and Wilma. That said, I don't expect this hurricane/TS to be severe enough to close down the parks (again, that doesn't mean I'd recommend going out in the weather) if it follows the projections (again, that's a big if). Basically, everything is speculation until Thursday night/Friday morning when we'll have a better idea of where this thing's heading and how strong it is.

 

[Joel0917]

my DS7 and i are flying out of Detroit to MCO Monday morning...and heading to LegoLand for "dated" tickets we bought for 8/31. then MK on Tues. Chill on WEd and fly back Wed night.
if my airlines offers weather buster to change..i may look at flying in sat or sunday to enjoy a day..we'll see. Fingers crossed it changes paths.

 

[Chris&Jeremy]

Ugh, we are driving in overnight this Friday, arriving Saturday AM for our first stay as DVC members. And we booked (nonrefundable!) reservations at Mickey's Backyard BBQ for Tuesday night. Hopefully it's not a swamp or still a complete monsoon!

 

[andyman8]

Ugh, we are driving in overnight this Friday, arriving Saturday AM for our first stay as DVC members. And we booked (nonrefundable!) reservations at Mickey's Backyard BBQ for Tuesday night. Hopefully it's not a swamp or still a complete monsoon!

If it stays on this track (again big IF!), it appears it'd be away from the Central FL area by Tuesday night. That said, I'm pretty sure all Disney Dinner Shows are refundable up to 24 hours (it might be 48 not sure) prior to showtime even though it's prepaid. Also, when a hurricane or severe storm is involved, Disney is VERY understand. Of course, I wouldn't make any changes or cancelations until we have a better idea of the situation.