Travel Changes?

[sethschroeder]

I'm looking at the website you're looking at, and I'm seeing things like this:



Almost all of the statistics on that page are the mortality rate in China, not worldwide. I do not see a worldwide number there. I also found this at the top of their page:



I'm not seeing these numbers you're quoting. I got my numbers from a report on CBS where Dr. John LaPook was quoting from the CDC. I've found him to be a very reliable source. I don't find your source to be actually supporting your statements. If you could point me to the exact spot where you got your numbers, that would be great.

Sayhello

You don't look at each report as they consolidate it to the big numbers at the top of the page. 88k total cases, 3k deaths, 43k recovered. That is what will give you the morality rate. The sources will point you to very specific regional/national information releases that they monitor for reports of numbers. (the total cases is likely going to be low as its under reported, thus it will drive down the true number)

Also the majority will be from China because that is where the outbreak started. As an example just this week there was a community spread infection (possibly 2) and the first death in the US. There also was an outbreak in Italy as well. By reference if you look at a specific flu strain within the first 6 months you might not find a single person from the US who has been infected or died.

Background on study in to the flu:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13724-revealed-the-asian-source-of-the-annual-flu-epidemic/
Again this does not mean the world is ending. My whole point was simply to not group this in with the flu and say its harmless. There are people way way smarter than probably any of us on these boards handling many of these decisions or instructing those in positions of power.

 

[sayhello]

You don't look at each report as they consolidate it to the big numbers at the top of the page. 88k total cases, 3k deaths, 43k recovered. That is what will give you the morality rate. The sources will point you to very specific regional/national information releases that they monitor for reports of numbers. (the total cases is likely going to be low as its under reported, thus it will drive down the true number)

Also the majority will be from China because that is where the outbreak started. As an example just this week there was a community spread infection (possibly 2) and the first death in the US. There also was an outbreak in Italy as well. By reference if you look at a specific flu strain within the first 6 months you might not find a single person from the US who has been infected or died.

Background on study in to the flu:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13724-revealed-the-asian-source-of-the-annual-flu-epidemic/
Again this does not mean the world is ending. My whole point was simply to not group this in with the flu and say its harmless. There are people way way smarter than probably any of us on these boards handling many of these decisions or instructing those in positions of power.

I don't think *anyone* is saying it's harmless. The flu is not harmless! They are saying keep everything in context and in perspective. It's not a global pandemic or anything like that at this point.

Sayhello

 

[sethschroeder]

I don't think *anyone* is saying it's harmless. The flu is not harmless! They are saying keep everything in context and in perspective. It's not a global pandemic or anything like that at this point.

Sayhello

By saying well the flu kills 10x or 20x the number of people you are in a sense saying its harmless. If you didn't know over half the US doesn't even get the flu shot. So there is already an extension of thought around flu="not that big of a deal".

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm
And that is for a virus we have actual protection against. If people viewed it as harmful those numbers would be dramatically higher. By example over 80% of people are estimated to wear their seat belt which I view to be very similar (momentary "inconvenience" for protection).

Another example is for MMR in children where the rate is over 90% in the US. Again flu vaccines are below 50%.

 

[neurosx1983]

I'll chime in as a physician...I'm not an infectious disease specialist (I'm a neurosurgeon) but I think its important to just focus on a couple of things here:
1. This isn't the same as seasonal flu. Mortality rate is mortality rate. It doesn't matter if we're talking about a handful of people infected or thousands. Percentage remains the same. COVID19 is a NEW and UNSTUDIED virus. Yes its related to the coronavirus that causes a common cold, but its a new thing. We don't have a vaccine for it. However, of the people that it has infected, around 2-3% of them have died. @sayhello I get your point that a lot of these that have died are in China where medical systems aren't quite as good as they are in other countries, but its just a fact number that 2-3% of those infected have died. Period. And its a fact that only 0.1-0.2 percent of people with influenza die. So yes, this one, at this point, is 30x worse.

2. This virus can live on surfaces for several days, which is unusual.

3. This virus has a 2 week incubation period, hence the reason quarantines are lasting that long.


I think its important for us to understand that we know so little about this but we need to be careful. Hence the importance of threads like this. The last thing any of us who love to travel want to do is make a hasty decision and cancel a trip for no good reason, but we have to be sensible.

I just called ABD today and it seems like no one has cancelled from our trip next week. Again, I'm praying that things stabilize. From the sound of it in France, though, that's not happening.

 

[neurosx1983]

And I think we should all stick to only two sources of info: WHO and CDC. They're the only ones that I, as a doctor, trust.

WHO releases a daily list of how many cases (and how many new cases) in each country. I've been tracking how France is going up...so I read it every day and get more depressed

 

[lovetotravel]

I just called ABD today and it seems like no one has cancelled from our trip next week. Again, I'm praying that things stabilize. From the sound of it in France, though, that's not happening.

All very good points!

A reason we love traveling with ABD is their ability to replace activities and deal with last minute changes. On our trips where places were closed or delayed, they quickly brought us to another location or had a back up plan, something that I could not have done if a trip was OYO. If the Louvre is closed perhaps they will take you to Musee d'Orsay, which we enjoyed as much the Louvre, or perhaps another exciting excursion!

 

[neurosx1983]

All very good points!

A reason we love traveling with ABD is their ability to replace activities and deal with last minute changes. On our trips where places were closed or delayed, they quickly brought us to another location or had a back up plan, something that I could not have done if a trip was OYO. If the Louvre is closed perhaps they will take you to Musee d'Orsay, which we enjoyed as much the Louvre, or perhaps another exciting excursion!

Absolutely! I've read trip reports of other companies where they will throw on a movie night if something's cancelled but ABD doesn't seem like they would do that...I hope I'm not proved wrong

 

[aggiedog]

I'll just add in, also as a physician (ophthalmologist), that Covid-19 seems to be more transmissible than the flu, perhaps twice as much, from what early data shows. And that it may also be completely asymptomatic in some, while they are still contagious. This makes it more likely to be spread to more people than the flu. Factor in that no one is vaccinated, and there is currently no known effective treatments, and that is where the worry lies.

 

[sayhello]

The Louvre was not closed by the government or the WHO or anything of that nature. The *employees* of the Louvre, knowing that they get tens of thousands of visitors each day from all over the world, requested of their management that the museum be closed for a period of time until they know what's going on. The employees were afraid that visitors would bring the virus to them. They're currently closed for 2 weeks.

I went to Disney World and Universal 3 weeks ago. People from all over the world in very close quarters. I feel more like I could have caught it then than if I was going to France today.

Sayhello

 

[Eastridge]

There is now a level 4 travel advisory in certain regions of Italy which are 40 miles from Milan. We are booked on the Italy/Switzerland trip on 7/31/20. This trip departs from Milan which is the region where many of the cases have been mentioned on the news.

Final payment is due 4/3/20. It's very early yet I still wonder what is going to happen. We also have first class airfare booked on Delta.

There's probably no advantage to making a firm decision right now when you still have a month until final payment.

Delta suspended flights to Milan for a while and appears to be offering refunds for those. So if the region still has the same advisories for your July trip, I would guess that you could get your money back from Delta. If you booked through ABD air, then ABD would also refund your airfare.

https://www.travelmarketreport.com/articles/Delta-Air-Lines-Temporarily-Suspends-Flights-to-Milan
I see three options for your situation:

1) You can pay in full. Then you are in the same situation as me, waiting for your trip and leaving it to the CDC and ABD to cancel if they judge the risk is too high. You will get all your money back if they cancel. But does your risk tolerance match that of CDC and ABD? As others have said, I do believe that Disney won't risk damaging its brand by proceeding with a trip that they should have cancelled.

2) You can switch to a different ABD trip before the PIF date. But then you have to predict the future and pick a trip and date that won't have the same problem. Given that Italy is in the Schengen region, which covers virtually all the European destinations that ABD goes to, it is hard to be certain that any particular trip will remain unaffected.

3) You can "park" your deposit and not commit to a specific trip for now, but I don't know how long it can stay parked.

Good luck with your decision.

 

[disneyholic family]

I'll chime in as a physician...I'm not an infectious disease specialist (I'm a neurosurgeon) but I think its important to just focus on a couple of things here:
1. This isn't the same as seasonal flu. Mortality rate is mortality rate. It doesn't matter if we're talking about a handful of people infected or thousands. Percentage remains the same. COVID19 is a NEW and UNSTUDIED virus. Yes its related to the coronavirus that causes a common cold, but its a new thing. We don't have a vaccine for it. However, of the people that it has infected, around 2-3% of them have died. @sayhello I get your point that a lot of these that have died are in China where medical systems aren't quite as good as they are in other countries, but its just a fact number that 2-3% of those infected have died. Period. And its a fact that only 0.1-0.2 percent of people with influenza die. So yes, this one, at this point, is 30x worse.

2. This virus can live on surfaces for several days, which is unusual.

3. This virus has a 2 week incubation period, hence the reason quarantines are lasting that long.


I think its important for us to understand that we know so little about this but we need to be careful. Hence the importance of threads like this. The last thing any of us who love to travel want to do is make a hasty decision and cancel a trip for no good reason, but we have to be sensible.

I just called ABD today and it seems like no one has cancelled from our trip next week. Again, I'm praying that things stabilize. From the sound of it in France, though, that's not happening.

is your ABD going to france?? Next week??
i would cancel. And i'm on this side of the atlantic. I'm assuming you're on the other side.
France is on the rise. Cases doubling day by day.
They haven't gotten to italy yet, but they'll get there.

unrelated to your trip specifically, as of yesterday, italy had 1,694 confirmed cases and 34 deaths (up from 29 on the previous day).
so based on those numbers, the death rate is 2%...
and the rate of spread is very high. It's highly contagious.
The problem isn't so much the death rate, but the numbers that require critical care. The medical system can be overwhelmed rather quickly.
Of course, each country will be different as each country has a different availability of medical care.
.
.

 

[disneyholic family]

so, i just discovered this thread and haven't read through it yet (i really should be asleep as it's the middle of the night).
ABD has a 4 month PIF, correct?
when i get to my PIF, if they haven't shortened it by then, i'll cancel.
Same with my DCL PIF, which i think is at 3 months.
if Disney doesn't delay the PIFs, i'll cancel the trip entirely.

I guess that means i'll lose my ABD deposit, right? Or can i move the deposit to another trip?

The only other possible sunk cost would be our plane tickets, but the airline i bought from has been very flexible and will if not refund then will let me move to another date for no charge.

.

 

[neurosx1983]

is your ABD going to france?? Next week??
i would cancel. And i'm on this side of the atlantic. I'm assuming you're on the other side.
France is on the rise. Cases doubling day by day.
They haven't gotten to italy yet, but they'll get there.

unrelated to your trip specifically, as of yesterday, italy had 1,694 confirmed cases and 34 deaths (up from 29 on the previous day).
so based on those numbers, the death rate is 2%...
and the rate of spread is very high. It's highly contagious.
The problem isn't so much the death rate, but the numbers that require critical care. The medical system can be overwhelmed rather quickly.
Of course, each country will be different as each country has a different availability of medical care.
.
.

Yes I'm going on the England/France ABD leaving March 12th. Are you in the UK? How is it over there? (Assuming you're in the Uk...)
I'm honestly so far not concerned at all about the London portion, but France has me worrying a bit because they're cases are going up. They're at 100 cases as of today according to WHO. That makes them number 2 in Europe behind Italy.
The other thing is that the Louvre is now closed. What's next...Versailles? Eiffel Tower? At some point this trip that I'm spending so much money on for my family is going to start looking very different than when we planned it.

So anyway yes I'll be making a decision by the end of this week. I'm trying to hold out as long as I can incase ABD cancels so I can get a refund. But there's also a good chance that I might still go if they don't cancel because of my blind faith in the Disney brand to protect me! lol

Seriously though, it sucks. I'm not sure how this is going to play out. I'm making plans for a backup incase it falls through. One thing is for sure I am NOT staying home (in the cold northeast) for vacation!

 

[Networth]

I am an infectious disease nurse practitioner who has been keeping an eye on COVID-19 since early January. I work closely with UF and round in their Gainesville and Jacksonville hospitals. As someone else mentioned in this thread please, only get your information from the WHO and/or CDC. Many news articles I have read seem to have out dated or incorrect information with questionable sources.

Our ID department works closely with the FL health department who has been in contact with the CDC daily. Everyone I speak to is hoping the tied turns once the weather warms globally. Also of note is that there has been some success with current antiviral medications. Using broad-spectrum antiviral drugs like Nucleoside analogues may disrupt the viral infection until a novel antiviral becomes available.

Several groups of researchers are currently working to develop a primate model to study COVID-19 to establish/fast track therapies and for testing potential vaccines in addition to providing a better understanding of virus-host interactions. This will get solved, it’s just a matter of time (I am an eternal optimist).

We currently are booked on a Greece ABD May 8th and have plans to be in Paris/DLP from May 17th-25th and I am staying hopefully optimistic.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

We are off to London (on our own) tomorrow. Traveling with this going on will be ... interesting! Cross your fingers for me on avoiding a random quarantine situation. That's our main fear. I will report from the front lines

 

[tidefan]

I'll chime in as a physician...I'm not an infectious disease specialist (I'm a neurosurgeon) but I think its important to just focus on a couple of things here:
1. This isn't the same as seasonal flu. Mortality rate is mortality rate. It doesn't matter if we're talking about a handful of people infected or thousands. Percentage remains the same. COVID19 is a NEW and UNSTUDIED virus. Yes its related to the coronavirus that causes a common cold, but its a new thing. We don't have a vaccine for it. However, of the people that it has infected, around 2-3% of them have died. @sayhello I get your point that a lot of these that have died are in China where medical systems aren't quite as good as they are in other countries, but its just a fact number that 2-3% of those infected have died. Period. And its a fact that only 0.1-0.2 percent of people with influenza die. So yes, this one, at this point, is 30x worse.

2. This virus can live on surfaces for several days, which is unusual.

3. This virus has a 2 week incubation period, hence the reason quarantines are lasting that long.


I think its important for us to understand that we know so little about this but we need to be careful. Hence the importance of threads like this. The last thing any of us who love to travel want to do is make a hasty decision and cancel a trip for no good reason, but we have to be sensible.

I just called ABD today and it seems like no one has cancelled from our trip next week. Again, I'm praying that things stabilize. From the sound of it in France, though, that's not happening.

Not in the medical field, but am a statistician. What I find interesting is how South Korea seems to be an outlier. They are up to 3,526 cases, but only have 18 deaths. That is a CFR of .005 (0.5%). So, my guess is one of two things. One, is South Korea doing a better job of testing everyone, so they get a better handle on what the true population is, or Two, their outbreak started in a church. Not in a hospital (like in Italy) or spread in a Long-Term Care Facility (Washington State) where you would have already an immuno-compromised population.

 

[lovetotravel]

Florida declares a public health emergency: Two cases of the virus were identified in Florida late Sunday night, prompting Gov. Ron DeSantis to declare a public health emergency.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/p...e-test-presumptively-positive-for-coronavirus

 

[Networth]

Florida declares a public health emergency: Two cases of the virus were identified in Florida late Sunday night, prompting Gov. Ron DeSantis to declare a public health emergency.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/p...e-test-presumptively-positive-for-coronavirus

Expect more cases in FL. We have been given the go ahead to start testing for COVID-19 in State labs located in Jax, Tampa, and Miami.

 

[Eastridge]

Given the current situation and uncertain future, it is entirely reasonable for people to cancel, change or postpone their trips.

However, if you still intend to go on your chosen trip, here’s a thought:

Personally, in this situation, I would much rather travel internationally as part of an ABD group than do the trip on my own.

• Disney can’t afford to damage its brand by taking undue risks with its tour groups. Most Americans probably don’t know the Tauck brand or other concierge travel brands, but everybody knows Disney. So if ABD doesn’t cancel the trip, I take that as a sign that the risk is acceptably low.
• By being part of an ABD group, you are backed by an organization that will watch for problems and can make alternate arrangements more easily than I could on my own in another country.
• The guides are very proactive in anticipating and solving problems, and one of them is fluent in the language of the country you are in.
• The group travels in its own bus or in its own section of a train, reducing the amount of exposure.
• ABD monitors each group and has contingency plans and resources in case of an emergency, including procuring medical help.

Obviously, Disney cannot and should not be expected to mitigate every risk, such as getting caught in a quarantine. But I feel a lot better about going as part of an ABD group than doing the trip on my own. That’s part of the value I’m getting from paying them so much $$.

 

[SirDuff]

Not in the medical field, but am a statistician. What I find interesting is how South Korea seems to be an outlier. They are up to 3,526 cases, but only have 18 deaths. That is a CFR of .005 (0.5%). So, my guess is one of two things. One, is South Korea doing a better job of testing everyone, so they get a better handle on what the true population is, or Two, their outbreak started in a church. Not in a hospital (like in Italy) or spread in a Long-Term Care Facility (Washington State) where you would have already an immuno-compromised population.

Epidemiologist here. My guess is that it is both. The first is part of the reason that I keep hammering on about the CFR being (very likely) an overestimate (likely a significant one). We don't have any models that allow us to estimate true incidence rate based on confirmed cases (for things like influenza, there are models that say (in very simplified terms), "for every X known cases there are an estimated Y undiagnosed cases"). The CFR is still an estimate with wide confidence intervals, but there is at least some ability to estimate true incidence.

On the other hand, that same argument means that R0 is likely an underestimate - which is worrisome in terms of any chance of containment (though, honestly, I don't think that anyone really believes that containment is likely at this point).