I've been checking II online almost daily for the WDW DVCs and certain other resorts since late April of this year. These sightings would not include weeks that people have secured with ongoing searches. In a way, they're just the "leftovers." The only WDW DVC sightings with that weekend check-in that I've seen were studio weeks at SSR, checking in on 10/31/08, spotted online on June 3 and on June 6 - could actually have been the same unit. These were seen between 4.5 and 5 months out.
BCV has had
no 2BRs sighted with ANY check-in dates, very few 1BRs and nearly all of the studios from this resort have shown up early, between 11 and 7 months out. So DVC is probably only using BCV deposits when BCV owners are trading to tough destinations. I suppose after the 7-month mark, it's all booked by members so there aren't full week reservations to give to II. Or, by the time later BCV deposits are made, there are enough II searches for them, to snatch them up before they are sighted online.
BWV - similar to BCV, with a handful of (studio/1BR) deposits showing up, under 2 months out, last minute flexchanges.
So for your first-week-of-November exchange into an Epcot resort, it doesn't look good at all. Sorry. An ongoing search may luck out for a small unit at one of the other DVCs though. IMHO, if you REALLY want to stay onsite, there's probably little risk in waiting for a 45-60 days out cancellation.
Meanwhile, keep watching the online availability of your alternative resorts. When it dwindles to just a couple units, it's time to act and confirm one. Currently, for your weekend check-in, there's plentiful availability in 2BRs or larger at these Marriotts:
Horizons
Cypress Harbour
Royal Palms
Sabal Palms
Grand Vista
(as well as the lovely Sheraton Vistana Villages)
Given that and the fact that you've included the other II WDW DVCs in your ongoing search request, you're probably fine to sit tight for now, IMO. You never know if you'll catch a later cancellation or deposit from one of those resorts.
If your dates are flexible, you may be interested to know that there
have been some DVC "leftovers" sighted since late April for other times during this year's F&WF:
SSR - 09/26/08 - 1BRs
OKW - 09/26/08 - 1BRs
SSR - 09/28/08 - 2BR
OKW - 09/28/08 - Studios, 1BRs
SSR - 10/03/08 - Studios
SSR - 10/25/08 - Studios, 1BRs, 2BR
SSR - 10/26/08 - Studios, 1BR
SSR - 10/31/08 - Studios
BWV - 11/08/08 - Studio
SSR - 11/08/08 - Studio
OKW - 11/08/08 - Studio
Those last ones would only include F&WF on the evening of check-in and the day that follows. There were a couple more w/check-in on the 9th. Anyway, if you were able to broaden your search dates a bit, it may increase your chances somewhat. HTH!
