Tracking Cruising Restart: News and Updates

[tvguy]

Cruise lines could seek a temporary exemption from the PVSA restrictions for Alaska cruises, but I'm skeptical that it would be particularly high on Congress's list of priorities.

I think there have been two exemptions in the past 130 or so years to the PVSA. And given all the stimulus checks sent out, and financial help offered to businesses not sure Congress would be willing to give such a specific benefit to one industry.

 

[tvguy]

This is what happens when you have an unaccountable agency making rules, It's not going to make any decision that even has a remote possibility of making the agency look bad,

So they create rules which are impossible to comply with in the 'real world' and cover themselves by saying well you can do X if you comply with the rulemaking to the letter.

The fact that it's probably easier to build a spaceship capable of faster than light travel, than comply with the rules issued by the agency is conveniently swept under the table.

Yet on the world stage the U.S. and CDC are being criticized for not being strict enough. Canada for one. Not sure who is right.

 

[brentm77]

That's the thing. They haven't been asking for more information - they instead want the order to be shot down. I very much agree that the order is heavy handed, but it does have everything in it to get the process started. If we want CDC to meet us in the middle, we too have to make an effort to get to that middle. So far, the progress report has shown little more than lawsuits and angry letters.

I am not saying the tactic is the right one, but there are interviews with the cruise line CEO's where they said they want the complete technical guidance before moving forward.

It is also an argument in Florida's lawsuit against the CDC, and Alaska's motion to intervene in it. Their argument is that the cruise lines don't even have the guidance required for a test voyage, and once it is released, it takes 90 days to start the test voyages. And after that, there are two other steps they need guidance one. Therefore, you only need to look at the pace of the guidance released so far to see that the all-important summer cruise season will be over before they could possibly get through all four phases and resume cruising. Before you know it, it is November and the order is set to expire anyway. I think they are probably right, given they only receive the 2a technical guidance a few weeks ago after months of waiting. On the other hand, it isn't like the CDC will just let the order expire without a replacement.

I guess the heavy-handed nature of the existing requirements makes me sympathetic to the request to see the complete path before they start down it. It is a big investment without knowing what the path looks like and whether it will actually be feasible. Assuming you can find the hospitals, medical transport, hotel rooms, and other required incidental services, the legal fees alone for negotiating contracts will be monumental, and hotels and other services won't just hold capacity on a contingency basis for free. It will be expensive for an industry with no revenue and high capital expenses.

 

[DCLMP]

The provided guidelines aren't even complete yet. They have the first steps (phase 2a), but they don't have everything they need to even see the full path ahead to see if it makes sense to take the first steps. They don't even have phase 2b, to see what simulated voyages would look like, let alone the phases after that. They have been asking for the complete package but haven't received it. They didn't even get 2a until a few weeks ago.

The guidelines they do have are unworkable from a financial and practical standpoint, in my opinion. The cruise lines have said as much too. There is no hospital in the US that is going to guarantee enough reserved capacity to take thousands of potential passengers and crew from an infected ship, and the guidelines require they have that arrangement with one hospital and a backup. They would also need thousands of hotel rooms booked and sitting empty for every crewmember and passenger on every ship they have sailing from a US port (minus some small percentage of crew who is fully vaccinated, and not infected, and can be provided a separate living quarters and bathroom on the ship). And the hotels rooms they book must have separate ventilation systems for each room - as far as I know, there are no hotels that even meet that last requirement. But, even if there are, the financial impact of the reserved hospital space and thousands of hotel rooms makes cruising at a profit essentially impossible for major lines. The cruise lines have billions of dollars on the line and would be complying the with the guidelines if they thought there was a practical manner for doing so. Trust me, they aren't just twiddling their thumbs or being stubborn.

I still think the bill was a terrible idea from a strategic standpoint. But, the CDC should come to the table with reasonable requirements. Fully-vaccinated ships should greatly reduce the need for the type of requirements the CDC issued. For an agency that should be in touch with the science and pro-vaccine, I sure wish it would act like it has some level of confidence in the vaccines.

I don’t see any hospital or hotel guaranteeing capacity. Of course, it the majority of the ship or more is vaccinated and the vaccines work then why we would we need to worry about hospital capacity?
You have to love the cdc’s messaging “ Get a vaccine, double mask, and stay home“. It’s so inspiring. Maybe they don’t have confidence in the vaccine?

 

[ford91exploder]

I am not saying the tactic is the right one, but there are interviews with the cruise line CEO's where they said they want the complete technical guidance before moving forward.

It is also an argument in Florida's lawsuit against the CDC, and Alaska's motion to intervene in it. Their argument is that the cruise lines don't even have the guidance required for a test voyage, and once it is released, it takes 90 days to start the test voyages. And after that, there are two other steps they need guidance one. Therefore, you only need to look at the pace of the guidance released so far to see that the all-important summer cruise season will be over before they could possibly get through all four phases and resume cruising. Before you know it, it is November and the order is set to expire anyway. I think they are probably right, given they only receive the 2a technical guidance a few weeks ago after months of waiting. On the other hand, it isn't like the CDC will just let the order expire without a replacement.

I guess the heavy-handed nature of the existing requirements makes me sympathetic to the request to see the complete path before they start down it. It is a big investment without knowing what the path looks like and whether it will actually be feasible. Assuming you can find the hospitals, medical transport, hotel rooms, and other required incidental services, the legal fees alone for negotiating contracts will be monumental, and hotels and other services won't just hold capacity on a contingency basis for free. It will be expensive for an industry with no revenue and high capital expenses.

Yet in the UK/Europe the cruise industry is restarting, Requiring proof of immunization of course and enhanced sanitation practices which in addition to COVID will also make a significant dent in Norovirus which has plagued the cruise industry for decades.

Remember in the US there are powerful political interests who do not believe that workers should be going on vacation and this is a convenient way to destroy one vacation option. The United States is the ONLY developed nation without a legal entitlement to vacation/sick time. Even China has 2 weeks mandatory vacation/Sick time.

And don't worry come October CDC will extend the no sail order this time with a few addional bells and whistles tacked on for good measure.

 

[ford91exploder]

I don’t see any hospital or hotel guaranteeing capacity. Of course, it the majority of the ship or more is vaccinated and the vaccines work then why we would we need to worry about hospital capacity?
You have to love the cdc’s messaging “ Get a vaccine, double mask, and stay home“. It’s so inspiring. Maybe they don’t have confidence in the vaccine?

Bureaucrats LOVE power and it does not matter what agency they work for, This is the DC Permanent Bureacrat's first command economy since WW II and they are loving it they don't ever want it to go away because now the 'professionals' are making peoples decisions for them which is as they think it should be.

 

[mevelandry]

Yet on the world stage the U.S. and CDC are being criticized for not being strict enough. Canada for one. Not sure who is right.

Canada is always right...

...but also I am extremely biased.

 

[mevelandry]

I don’t see any hospital or hotel guaranteeing capacity. Of course, it the majority of the ship or more is vaccinated and the vaccines work then why we would we need to worry about hospital capacity?
You have to love the cdc’s messaging “ Get a vaccine, double mask, and stay home“. It’s so inspiring. Maybe they don’t have confidence in the vaccine?

They have confidence in the vaccines but it takes a certain percentage of people being vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. We (Canada and USA ... and many other countries) are not there yet. This is why masks and social distancing are, to this day, still needed and will be needed for a few more weeks/months.

 

[Intr3pid]

I am not saying the tactic is the right one, but there are interviews with the cruise line CEO's where they said they want the complete technical guidance before moving forward.

It is also an argument in Florida's lawsuit against the CDC, and Alaska's motion to intervene in it. Their argument is that the cruise lines don't even have the guidance required for a test voyage, and once it is released, it takes 90 days to start the test voyages. And after that, there are two other steps they need guidance one. Therefore, you only need to look at the pace of the guidance released so far to see that the all-important summer cruise season will be over before they could possibly get through all four phases and resume cruising. Before you know it, it is November and the order is set to expire anyway. I think they are probably right, given they only receive the 2a technical guidance a few weeks ago after months of waiting. On the other hand, it isn't like the CDC will just let the order expire without a replacement.

I guess the heavy-handed nature of the existing requirements makes me sympathetic to the request to see the complete path before they start down it. It is a big investment without knowing what the path looks like and whether it will actually be feasible. Assuming you can find the hospitals, medical transport, hotel rooms, and other required incidental services, the legal fees alone for negotiating contracts will be monumental, and hotels and other services won't just hold capacity on a contingency basis for free. It will be expensive for an industry with no revenue and high capital expenses.

What specifically are they missing? I haven't seen a single reference to a part of the CSO where they want clarity or more information.

There wasn't any technical guidance released a few weeks ago. It was an administrative update, and I don't expect there to be much more unless progress is shown on what is already out.

 

[DCLMP]

They have confidence in the vaccines but it takes a certain percentage of people being vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. We (Canada and USA ... and many other countries) are not there yet. This is why masks and social distancing are, to this day, still needed and will be needed for a few more weeks/months.

I won't be surprised if masks are still required in Canada a year from now.

 

[cvjw]

Disney needs to start sailing out of the Caribbean or Bahamas. They deal with a lot of these countries as cruise ports. Surely one or more of them would be interested in letting a disney ship sail from their port. Just sidestep the CDC. Lots of vaccinated Americans are waiting to sail and flights to the Caribbean are cheap and plentiful.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Disney needs to start sailing out of the Caribbean or Bahamas. They deal with a lot of these countries as cruise ports. Surely one or more of them would be interested in letting a disney ship sail from their port. Just sidestep the CDC. Lots of vaccinated Americans are waiting to sail and flights to the Caribbean are cheap and plentiful.

Sounds like a good plan, except for all the people who would then have to invest in passports to fly to a foreign port to board the ships.

 

[spiders]

I abandoned ship (pun intended) on my November cruise. I didn't want to get left scrambling at the end trying to find park reservations so I've already converted all of the days to a WDW only trip. It's just not worth trying to plan on something that has so much uncertainty.

 

[jerry557]

Pandemic Forever.

They have confidence in the vaccines but it takes a certain percentage of people being vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity. We (Canada and USA ... and many other countries) are not there yet. This is why masks and social distancing are, to this day, still needed and will be needed for a few more weeks/months.

We aren't going to get herd immunity with these vaccines. They don't last anywhere near long enough. You need to keep getting them every year. Even if you get great compliance the fuly vaccinated number up high by the end of the year, everyone will need to get another dose next year. Many won't. They will forget or let their guard down or won't care anymore, etc... And the virus will have a resurgence. And this will be a fight year after year, just like the flu.

So if they are going to wait for herd immunity before lifting mask mandates and lifting the cruise ban, they won't ever be lifted.

 

[spiders]

Sounds like a good plan, except for all the people who would then have to invest in passports to fly to a foreign port to board the ships.

If someone can't afford a $100 passport then they can't afford to cruise either. They might be too lazy to get a passport but the money shouldn't be an issue.

 

[cvjw]

Sounds like a good plan, except for all the people who would then have to invest in passports to fly to a foreign port to board the ships.

I am not sure I know anyone without a passport. My kids had them since they were born. If someone can’t afford to buy a passport for $100, I seriously doubt they can afford a disney cruise.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

The opposite would have surprised me.

I don’t see ships being authorized to sail again unless the cruise lines commit to have only vaccinated guests on board... On top of every other health measure mentioned in that blog.

Many of the ports they visit will require vaccinations anyways.

Sounds like a good plan, except for all the people who would then have to invest in passports to fly to a foreign port to board the ships.

Cruising without a passport is foolish.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Cruising without a passport is foolish.

Agreed. But many people do it.

 

[brentm77]

What specifically are they missing? I haven't seen a single reference to a part of the CSO where they want clarity or more information.

There wasn't any technical guidance released a few weeks ago. It was an administrative update, and I don't expect there to be much more unless progress is shown on what is already out.

There was technical guidance that was released a few weeks ago for part 2a. Your thinking of the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order. But that is very high level and doesn't have the detailed requirements. The industry was waiting on technical guidance for details. The technical guidance for 2a is the part they were missing (and the technical guidance for the remaining parts that still hasn't been released). The technical guidance is pages of details for step 2a, versus 3 paragraphs in the first document.

It was all over the news and cruise blogs when it was released and the lines and ports claimed to be very disappointed that was all they got, because it didn't even have the information on the important next step of test cruising, or a date when test cruises could start.

Here are the facts as explained from Alaska's Motion to Intervene in the Florida case (emphasis mine):

On October 31, 2020, the CDC issued a “Conditional Sail Order” that promised a “phased resumption of cruise ship passenger operations.” 85 Fed. Reg. 70153. The initial phase consisted of testing and additional safeguards for crew members while the CDC ensures operators build the laboratory capacity needed to test future passengers. Id. Subsequent phases would
include simulated voyages, certification for ships that meet specific requirements, and a phased return to passenger voyages. Id.

On April 2, 2021, the CDC issued technical guidance for phase 2a of its phased approach. Among other requirements, this phase requires operators to create “planning materials for agreements that port authorities and local health authorities must approve to ensure cruise lines have the necessary infrastructure in place to manage an outbreak of COVID-19 on their ships to include healthcare capacity and housing to isolate infected people and quarantine those who are exposed.”3 This plan, in addition to a host of other requirements, requires operators to obtain “medical care agreements” that include contractual arrangements to provide for emergency medical transport of critically ill persons and contractual arrangements with shoreside medical facilities to ensure that travelers receive appropriate clinical evaluation. In these agreements, the cruise ship operator “must document that its contractual shoreside medical facilities or healthcare systems either singularly or collectively have enough medical capacity in the judgment of the local health authorities to care for travelers if an unanticipated outbreak of COVID-19 occurs on board its ships.”

Along with the medical care agreements and other related requirements, cruise ship operators must enter housing agreements with shoreside facilities to allow for isolation of and quarantine of persons with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. The housing agreement provision includes another host of requirements, including an obligation by the cruise ship operator to “document that it has made contractual arrangements . . . in sufficient quantities as determined by the local health authorities to meet the housing needs of travelers until they meet CDC criteria to discontinue isolation.” In addition to the housing requirements, the CDC also directs the parties to the agreement—which includes the cruise ship operator, the U.S. port authority, and all health departments exercising jurisdiction over the port—to jointly consider the potential needs of travelers under quarantine and isolation. These needs include the availability and frequency of testing; availability of mental health services; pharmacy delivery and other essential
services; available of security; a check-in process, including delivery of luggage; procedures to ensure daily monitoring of travelers in quarantine; procedures to minimize contact between travelers in quarantine and support staff; and post-isolation and post-quarantine procedures to allow travelers to safely return home.

The CDC has yet to issue technical guidance for Phase 2b—simulated voyages—or any of the other remaining phases. Based on the Conditional Sailing Order, it will be at least a 90-day process for a cruise ship operator to complete a simulated voyage and possibly obtain a conditional sailing certificate. Alaska’s cruise season is limited, extending from mid-May to early October each year. Unless the CDC’s overly burdensome and opaque requirements are altered or lifted soon, it will be impossible for large-scale cruising to resume in the United States in time for any part of Alaska’s season. And, given the CDC’s current pace for issuing its technical guidance and the lead times necessary to arrange and market cruises, the CDC’s action
may jeopardize the 2022 cruise season as well.

Most of those specific details weren't available until this month. You can Google the two documents to compare them.

As of today, the test sailing guidance (for part 2b) still hasn't been released. With a minimum of 90 days from starting test cruising to actually having normal cruises, the lines will miss a big part of the summer cruising season, even if test cruising resumes very soon (it won't). Frankly, I think the cruise lines, ports, and states have a legitimate reason to be frustrated with the CDC at this stage.

You can argue that the CDC would release the next steps if they would simply comply with 2a, but they have only had a few weeks since specifics were available, I am not sure any line can actually comply with it, I too would be hesitant to start an expensive process without fully knowing what I was getting into, and I don't see any indication at all that the CDC will suddenly release the next parts just because they have complied with 2a - the CDC hasn't even claimed that it will.

By the way, I just learned the the 12-hour separation requirement for terminals was dropped from the guidance recently, and only requires it to the extent practicable.

 

[DCLMP]

Disney needs to start sailing out of the Caribbean or Bahamas. They deal with a lot of these countries as cruise ports. Surely one or more of them would be interested in letting a disney ship sail from their port. Just sidestep the CDC. Lots of vaccinated Americans are waiting to sail and flights to the Caribbean are cheap and plentiful.

They won't be cheap if cruises start embarking from there. They are cheap now because no one is going there.