Touringplans has today a 3 out of 10 yet MK lines pretty long?

[CTDisneyfan816]

With a crowd level of a 3 I would expect thie lines to be shorter but many rides at Magic Kingdom today are 35 minutes and longer. Is it because of less staffing due to the lower crowds, the Christmas party or both?

 

[CinderElsa]

I've found that TouringPlans isn't very accurate these days. YMMV.

 

[prudence64]

Touring plans was way off a couple of days in November.

 

[casperthegm]

I've found that TouringPlans isn't very accurate these days. YMMV.

Agreed. And I've seen a number of other posts recently saying much the same. Opinions will vary of course, but I much prefer EasyWDW.

 

[Laketravis]

I much prefer EasyWDW.

He's got today at an overall 4, with MK "Tentatively Recommended".

 

[CTDisneyfan816]

Then I looked at the other parks and with the exception of Test Track, pretty much everything under 30 minutes. (Though I think Soarin was 35-40).

 

[BuzzinDownToDisney]

I love TP, but they have massively underestimated crowds the past few weeks. They refuse to acknowledge there are no such things a sub-5 days at the MK in the month of December.

 

[figment_jii]

I think that some of the crowd predictor metrics might not have really had time to adapt to FP+'s impacts on crowds. I don't know that the crowds are necessarily all that different than in previous years, but the distribution of guests and ride lengths do seem to have changed with the widespread implementation of FP+. Touring Plan's own analysis indicated that there were generally shorter standby waits for the big rides, but longer lines other rides since the start of FP+. I'm guessing that any of the crowd predictor sites are going to have hiccups for the next few years until the impacts of FP+ are better understood (i.e., longer period of record to analyze).

 

[JimmyV]

I think that some of the crowd predictor metrics might not have really had time to adapt to FP+'s impacts on crowds. I don't know that the crowds are necessarily all that different than in previous years, but the distribution of guests and ride lengths do seem to have changed with the widespread implementation of FP+. Touring Plan's own analysis indicated that there were generally shorter standby waits for the big rides, but longer lines other rides since the start of FP+. I'm guessing that any of the crowd predictor sites are going to have hiccups for the next few years until the impacts of FP+ are better understood (i.e., longer period of record to analyze).

100% this! There is no real reason to believe that a statistically significant greater number of people are in any given park on 12/10/2014 than were in the parks on 12/10/2013, or 12/10/2012. Remember that for all the hype and hoopla about Disney's increased profits from park revenues, even they concede that much of that increase comes from ticket price increases. If actual attendance is increasing, it is doing so by a low single digit percentage. So if there were 30,000 people in the MK a couple of years ago, perhaps there are 31,500 people now. That is an increase of 5%. That increase cannot account for what people are seeing, and what TP is predicting. The real difference is that FP+ has been a game changer in terms of crowd distribution, (which was ALWAYS its goal). We, as guests, haven't quite caught up to what that means for us, and neither has TP. All TP can do is predict the overall turnstile attendance--not in hard numbers, but in overall "feel". With over a decade of data under their belts, I'll bet that they are far more accurate than we want to admit. It's just that a "3" before and a "3" now feel very, very different to the seasoned guest.

My guess, (and it is only that) is that human nature causes us to magnify the wait times when they are longer than we expected, and dismiss the wait times when they are shorter than expected. For example:

Wait time at Pirates--used to be 10 minutes, now might be 30 minutes.
Wait time at Space Mountain--used to be 70 minutes, now is 50 minutes.

In the past, your total wait time for both rides was 80 minutes. Now, it is 80 minutes. But perhaps 30+50 feels "more crowded" than 10+70.

 

[wisblue]

If you want to use Touring Plans to get an idea of what kind of wait times to expect, you should look at this item that describes how they determine the crowd levels (based on average posted wait times at major attractions between 10 AM and 5 PM). There is no pretense that they are estimating the attendance in the parks.

http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels

You can also click on the crowd level links to see their charts that show expected peak wait times at different attractions for days with different crowd levels.

It's also important to remember that the crowd levels are adjusted on a rolling basis so that predictions reflect only how the wait times will compare to the recent past. In other words, you should not expect wait times on a crowd level 3 day in 2014 to be the same as they were on a crowd level 3 day in past years.

Josh at easywdw recently made the statement that a crowd level 2 day in 2014 is more crowded than a crowd level 5 day in 2009.

 

[Praying Colonel]

Per TP's Lines app, current wait times as reported by folks who are there (either posted by WDW or actual wait by the person reporting it):

--BTMRR 20 (posted)
--Buzz 10 (posted) 5 (actual)
--ETWB 23 (actual)
--Pirates 11 (actual)

FWIW, sounds like a 3-ish day to me.

 

[Laketravis]

Yup.

I think that some of the crowd predictor metrics might not have really had time to adapt to FP+'s impacts on crowds. I don't know that the crowds are necessarily all that different than in previous years, but the distribution of guests and ride lengths do seem to have changed with the widespread implementation of FP+. Touring Plan's own analysis indicated that there were generally shorter standby waits for the big rides, but longer lines other rides since the start of FP+. I'm guessing that any of the crowd predictor sites are going to have hiccups for the next few years until the impacts of FP+ are better understood (i.e., longer period of record to analyze).

100% this! There is no real reason to believe that a statistically significant greater number of people are in any given park on 12/10/2014 than were in the parks on 12/10/2013, or 12/10/2012. Remember that for all the hype and hoopla about Disney's increased profits from park revenues, even they concede that much of that increase comes from ticket price increases. If actual attendance is increasing, it is doing so by a low single digit percentage. So if there were 30,000 people in the MK a couple of years ago, perhaps there are 31,500 people now. That is an increase of 5%. That increase cannot account for what people are seeing, and what TP is predicting. The real difference is that FP+ has been a game changer in terms of crowd distribution, (which was ALWAYS its goal). We, as guests, haven't quite caught up to what that means for us, and neither has TP. All TP can do is predict the overall turnstile attendance--not in hard numbers, but in overall "feel". With over a decade of data under their belts, I'll bet that they are far more accurate than we want to admit. It's just that a "3" before and a "3" now feel very, very different to the seasoned guest.

My guess, (and it is only that) is that human nature causes us to magnify the wait times when they are longer than we expected, and dismiss the wait times when they are shorter than expected. For example:

Wait time at Pirates--used to be 10 minutes, now might be 30 minutes.
Wait time at Space Mountain--used to be 70 minutes, now is 50 minutes.

In the past, your total wait time for both rides was 80 minutes. Now, it is 80 minutes. But perhaps 30+50 feels "more crowded" than 10+70.

 

[prudence64]

100% this! There is no real reason to believe that a statistically significant greater number of people are in any given park on 12/10/2014 than were in the parks on 12/10/2013, or 12/10/2012. Remember that for all the hype and hoopla about Disney's increased profits from park revenues, even they concede that much of that increase comes from ticket price increases. If actual attendance is increasing, it is doing so by a low single digit percentage. So if there were 30,000 people in the MK a couple of years ago, perhaps there are 31,500 people now. That is an increase of 5%. That increase cannot account for what people are seeing, and what TP is predicting. The real difference is that FP+ has been a game changer in terms of crowd distribution, (which was ALWAYS its goal). We, as guests, haven't quite caught up to what that means for us, and neither has TP. All TP can do is predict the overall turnstile attendance--not in hard numbers, but in overall "feel". With over a decade of data under their belts, I'll bet that they are far more accurate than we want to admit. It's just that a "3" before and a "3" now feel very, very different to the seasoned guest.

My guess, (and it is only that) is that human nature causes us to magnify the wait times when they are longer than we expected, and dismiss the wait times when they are shorter than expected. For example:

Wait time at Pirates--used to be 10 minutes, now might be 30 minutes.
Wait time at Space Mountain--used to be 70 minutes, now is 50 minutes.

In the past, your total wait time for both rides was 80 minutes. Now, it is 80 minutes. But perhaps 30+50 feels "more crowded" than 10+70.

There were significantly more people in the parks for our early Nov. trip than there were on our past early Nov. trip. I'm not saying that because of attraction wait times, but because of line to get into the park, general walkway congestion, crowds on buses in the morning, lines for the restroom, line for quick service, etc...

 

[JimmyV]

There were significantly more people in the parks for our early Nov. trip than there were on our past early Nov. trip. I'm not saying that because of attraction wait times, but because of line to get into the park, general walkway congestion, crowds on buses in the morning, lines for the restroom, line for quick service, etc...

From the June, 2014 report of Theme Park Insider:

Top 10 theme parks in the United States, where average attendance grew 2.7 percent in 2013 for the Top 20 parks:

Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom 18.6 6.0%
Disneyland 16.2 1.5%
Epcot 11.2 1.5%
Disney's Animal Kingdom 10.2 2.0%
Disney's Hollywood Studios 10.1 2.0%
Disney California Adventure 8.5 9.5%
Islands of Adventure 8.1 2.0%
Universal Studios Florida 7.1 14.0%
Universal Studios Hollywood 6.1 4.0%
SeaWorld Orlando 5.1 -5.0%

Attendance is growing in the low single digits. The facts are the facts. How that impacts you at the turnstile is unclear and colored by personal perception. If 30,000 people go to the MK on any given day, but in 2013, only 5,000 showed up for RD, and then in 2014, 15,000 showed up for RD (because of A&E, or 7DMT), then of course the "line to get into the park, general walkway congestion, crowds on buses in the morning," would all appear different. But in the end, 30,000=30,000. And even accounting for a 6% increase, 30,000 is only slightly < 31,800. There is simply no way for anyone to notice the impact of 1.5% more people in Epcot, or 2% more people in AK.

 

[Laketravis]

^^ for sure.

Wait times at secondary attractions in Epcot have increased substantially more than 1.5% - in some cases, they've doubled.

Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom? Certainly more than 2%

Likewise for MK.

Here's a picture of the entrance to MK at 2pm in the afternoon this past Thanksgiving day. Notice how they even have half the badge reader stations closed. Like Jimmy said, did all of the people in the park now arrive at Rope Drop?

Remember - TP "crowd level" numbers are not based on the number of people in the parks, but on wait times.

 

[jharaldson]

Agreed. And I've seen a number of other posts recently saying much the same. Opinions will vary of course, but I much prefer EasyWDW.

One of the things I like about Touringplans is that they constantly grade themselves and hold themselves accountable. On Nov 15 they predicted a 2 at MK but the the next day they reported that they saw a 7. They then proceed to break down each ride expected vs actual for that day. It doesn't help the person that was misinformed that day but it shows a thoughtful nature that makes me think they will use that data to get better in the future.

http://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/wait-times/date/2014-11-15

I like the easywdw but outside of the occasional blog post I don't see a corresponding feature there.

 

[BuzzinDownToDisney]

Remember - TP "crowd level" numbers are not based on the number of people in the parks, but on wait times.

http://s1375.photobucket.com/user/LakeTravis99/media/imagejpg1_zpsd3be4b06.jpg.html

But they also do a resort calendar. Today was a 3, which is exactly what it was for my August trip. Same hotel. Insane difference. You could not move in any of the shops, and were frequently stuck unable to get around people. The wait to get a pic of the gingerbread house was 20+ minutes. It was like being on Main Street at parade time. Really hope that isn't an indication of the parks this weekend as tomorrow is also a 3 at the MK, hope an August 3 and December 3 aren't so dramatically different there.

 

[wendow]

But they also do a resort calendar. Today was a 3, which is exactly what it was for my August trip. Same hotel. Insane difference. You could not move in any of the shops, and were frequently stuck unable to get around people. The wait to get a pic of the gingerbread house was 20+ minutes. It was like being on Main Street at parade time. Really hope that isn't an indication of the parks this weekend as tomorrow is also a 3 at the MK, hope an August 3 and December 3 aren't so dramatically different there.

Yes, we were at the GF quite a bit today cause half our family is there and half at the Poly. The GF was packed to the gills with people. every boat we get on and every monorail...all packed...MK was nuts on Wednesday. Having my doubts that MK will be a 3 tomorrow.

 

[jar]

I posted my experience today in a separate post, and I was only in MK in the morning so I can't speak to how things may have changed in the afternoon, but I've never experienced MK as empty as it was this morning. From 7am to noon, we did 17 rides, virtually all of which were headliners (and only 2 with FP+). 7DMT twices, Space 3x, Splash, BTMRR, Buzz 2x, PP, PoTC. Waited under 45 minutes for all rides combined.

In the afternoon in EP, TT and Soarin were 40-54 minutes each, but the non-headliners were also empty. Walked onto Mission Space and could've walked onto several others.

At DHS in the evening, RnRR and ToT were a very reasonable 33 and 11 minutes, respectively.

So I think TP's ratings of 3/3/2 for these parks seemed pretty right. We'll see their analysis tomorrow.

 

[Cando86]

100% this! There is no real reason to believe that a statistically significant greater number of people are in any given park on 12/10/2014 than were in the parks on 12/10/2013, or 12/10/2012. Remember that for all the hype and hoopla about Disney's increased profits from park revenues, even they concede that much of that increase comes from ticket price increases. If actual attendance is increasing, it is doing so by a low single digit percentage. So if there were 30,000 people in the MK a couple of years ago, perhaps there are 31,500 people now. That is an increase of 5%. That increase cannot account for what people are seeing, and what TP is predicting. The real difference is that FP+ has been a game changer in terms of crowd distribution, (which was ALWAYS its goal). We, as guests, haven't quite caught up to what that means for us, and neither has TP. All TP can do is predict the overall turnstile attendance--not in hard numbers, but in overall "feel". With over a decade of data under their belts, I'll bet that they are far more accurate than we want to admit. It's just that a "3" before and a "3" now feel very, very different to the seasoned guest.

My guess, (and it is only that) is that human nature causes us to magnify the wait times when they are longer than we expected, and dismiss the wait times when they are shorter than expected. For example:

Wait time at Pirates--used to be 10 minutes, now might be 30 minutes.
Wait time at Space Mountain--used to be 70 minutes, now is 50 minutes.

In the past, your total wait time for both rides was 80 minutes. Now, it is 80 minutes. But perhaps 30+50 feels "more crowded" than 10+70.

You explained it very understandably! Makes a lot of sense.