Touringplan predictions changed!

[Mary09]

Thanks, good to know. It's probably almost fruitless to try to predict, outside the obvious factors (school in or out, etc.) When Disney expects lower crowds they have shorter hours, fewer CMs, fewer boats in POTC, fewer shows and more things in refurb, so fewer guests feels like more anyway.

 

[Lorinda]

21st = 9
22nd = 2
23rd = 2
24th = 3
25th = 2

Thank you very much! We will probably arrive at the park around 5 pm Sunday the main goal being to catch Fantasmic. I am considering the late show. I am crossing my fingers the crowds will thin out as some will hopefully be leaving that afternoon/ eve to work the next day... I can hope .

 

[Here4mydisneyfix]

Thanks, good to know. It's probably almost fruitless to try to predict, outside the obvious factors (school in or out, etc.) When Disney expects lower crowds they have shorter hours, fewer CMs, fewer boats in POTC, fewer shows and more things in refurb, so fewer guests feels like more anyway.

It's true. A lot of disboards folks seem to feel there really is no off season anymore. Man it sure is beautiful when you do luck out upon a "walk on" time of the year though! I really wish they were easier to predict! Disney gold!!

 

[Lightshield]

They changed nov 2-6 too. I thought they were off with the parade taping that weekend. It went from 3, 5, 5, 1, 1 to 5, 7, 7, 4, 6. Still not sure they are correct about Monday and Tuesday being so busy.

That's the same we'll be there. Thanks for sharing, even if the news bums me out!

 

[Califgirl]

The crowds for my dates increased as well. Sat October 13 is going to be a ten I am really really disappointed, to be honest

Oh, My. Goodness! Saturday Oct. 13th a 10? I'll be there Sunday the 14th - Tuesday the 16th. Sundays are almost always busier than Saturdays these days. Do you have any predictions for my dates?

 

[Satchmo128]

We will be staying at DH Oct 20-23. Haven't been to DL/DCA in 5 years. Guess we will just have higher crowds than normal with UEA there that weekend! At least we already have Blue Bayou reservations and WoC lunch dining reservation at Carthay Circle.

Honestly, a day in Disney is do much better than on at home....crowds and all!

 

[Eeee-va]

Everyone's experience at the parks will vary...even on the same day, some people might say the park wasn't so bad while others might say it was crowded.

That said, TouringPlans seems to be wrong as often as they're right when it comes to Disneyland. I'm sorry they adjusted so many predictions well after people may have booked based on said predictions, but their new predictions may not be any better than their old ones.

 

[Stitch35]

Oh, My. Goodness! Saturday Oct. 13th a 10? I'll be there Sunday the 14th - Tuesday the 16th. Sundays are almost always busier than Saturdays these days. Do you have any predictions for my dates?

The 14-16 is predicted at 6, 2, 2 with the majority of the crowds in CA.

 

[mt mommy]

We just got home last night. We were in the parks Wed-Thurs. (Sept. 19-21). Wednesday and Thursday were fine, FRIDAY WAS INSANE. One CM told us at noon the they had about 22,000 people then by 7pm they had 35,000 people. I think ALL of them had a stroller and were at Fantasmic!! It was insane. Some of the locals mentioned to us that it seemed as crowded as it did for the 50th Anniversary Celebration. It was crazy!!

It was still fun, of course. Seeing Carsland is AMAZING!!! I think the crowds for the next year will be more crowded than usual!

 

[jsebsirois]

Reading this thread reminds me of two things :

1) Can you really tell what crowds will be like when they can't even tell you what the weather will be like the next day?

2) Remember you're on a vacation and go with the flow : big crowds, then try taking it easy, enjoying the details.

I don't want to sound rude by saying this. It's just that I used to freak out with crowd predictions and big crowds in the Parks. Now, I try to skip that and enjoy the moment!

 

[SKShields]

I was just on TP as well and saw that the 13th was a 10 and had a mild panic attack and decided to check the DIS to see if anyone knew what was up. I remember that date being around a 5 to 6 earlier - seems like a crazy jump to me too. I emailed the address they give in the "contact us" section to see if they would explain the jump, I doubt I'll hear anything too helpful, but I'll post the response here if I get one.

 

[Here4mydisneyfix]

I don't want to sound rude by saying this. It's just that I used to freak out with crowd predictions and big crowds in the Parks. Now, I try to skip that and enjoy the moment!

Excellent advice! I know a lot of people worry because a Disney trip costs an arm and a leg and you want to be able to enjoy every penny of it, but there truly is SO much to see and do there! You can bet that Mainstreet will be dead on busy days while everyone else is rushing around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to just ride everything as fast as they can! Since the hubs and I will have NO kiddos this time, we are actually really looking forward to just getting to slowly meander around mainstreet and the rest of the park and take it all in. See and hear and smell, you know? Everything our kids don't really care about because they just want to get on Dumbo! lol I don't even think we've ever been in any of the mainstreet shops besides candy palace before it's refurb! I have been to the Great Moments With Mr. Lincoln exhibit, but Dh hasn't. I am really looking forward to showing it to him and seeing Voices of Liberty too! I'm VERY excited to just get to move slowly and REALLY experience Walt's baby!

 

[Here4mydisneyfix]

I was just on TP as well and saw that the 13th was a 10 and had a mild panic attack and decided to check the DIS to see if anyone knew what was up. I remember that date being around a 5 to 6 earlier - seems like a crazy jump to me too. I emailed the address they give in the "contact us" section to see if they would explain the jump, I doubt I'll hear anything too helpful, but I'll post the response here if I get one.

I wouldn't worry too much. I don't think they really know anything. They seem to just be basing it off of the weekends that are happening now. I have seen my dates change a bunch as they are trying to pinpoint the crowds, and it seems very apparent that they have just been trying to base it off of the last couple weekends. They don't know anything.

 

[Califgirl]

Thanks for the crowd predictions, Stitch35.

 

[jsebsirois]

Excellent advice! I know a lot of people worry because a Disney trip costs an arm and a leg and you want to be able to enjoy every penny of it, but there truly is SO much to see and do there! You can bet that Mainstreet will be dead on busy days while everyone else is rushing around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to just ride everything as fast as they can! Since the hubs and I will have NO kiddos this time, we are actually really looking forward to just getting to slowly meander around mainstreet and the rest of the park and take it all in. See and hear and smell, you know? Everything our kids don't really care about because they just want to get on Dumbo! lol I don't even think we've ever been in any of the mainstreet shops besides candy palace before it's refurb! I have been to the Great Moments With Mr. Lincoln exhibit, but Dh hasn't. I am really looking forward to showing it to him and seeing Voices of Liberty too! I'm VERY excited to just get to move slowly and REALLY experience Walt's baby!

Amen to that!!!

 

[kswm30b]

I'm going to DL for the first time ever, and went crazy researching & deciding when to go. I finally decided on early Dec, since I read that was a slower time. Today TP changed the numbers for every day of my trip, from 5/6 to 8/9s. I don't know why, and I hope it's wrong, lol.

 

[jsebsirois]

I think there's one thing we should all learn : there is no more real slow time at Disneyland (same at Disney World by the way).

 

[Gina]

I think there's one thing we should all learn : there is no more real slow time at Disneyland (same at Disney World by the way).

There are definitely much slower times at WDW... My son & I always go in early February, and we're used to walking on pretty much everything except for the real biggies. And with FP, those are a walk-on too. I think it's the locals issue that seems to cause all the year-round crowds at DLR, from what I have gathered. That just doesn't factor in much at WDW, so there are much bigger crowd variances at different times of the year.

 

[jcarwash]

From what I have seen the TP crowd predictions are meaningless.

Meaningless and, apparently, fiction.

I subscribed to touringplans.com for my August Disneyland trip. For months I tracked these dates/predictions below and received email updates on them from TP. The big one was the adjustment of Aug 20 for DCA up to a 9.8:
Aug 20 2012: DL 3.8 DCA 9.8
Aug 21 2012: DL 3.2 DCA 4.4
Aug 22 2012: DL 3.6 DCA 4.5
Aug 23 2012: DL 3.2 DCA 4.7

I took all these predictions and crowd calendar info with me on my trip.

Following the trip when I looked at their "historical" crowd calendar for these dates, their "history" had an entirely different set of "predictions" as compared to the "actuals" for three of the four days. The history makes it look like they estimated higher and reported lower.

The site now "reports":
Aug 20
Predicted: DL 6.3 DCA 8.1
Actual: DL 5.0 DCA 7.6

Aug 21
Predicted: DL 6.6 DCA 8.1
Actual: DL 3.6 DCA 7.3

Aug 22
Predicted: DL 6.7 DCA 8.1
Actual: DL 3.2 DCA 7.6

Aug 23
Predicted: DL 7.0 DCA 8.2
Actual: DL 3.7 DCA 7.9

I emailed them almost a month ago to report my confusion/disappointment and they said they would need to look into it. I haven't heard anything back.

In hindsight I admit the reality with understanding the predictions and the actual crowds really didn't matter to my overall experience -- it was simply least busy as the parks first opened and got busier all day long. My issue with touringplans.com is with paying for a service and trying to use that information only to find it's not worth anything.

 

[SKShields]

I'm not terribly concerned about the crowds being a 10, we'll be there Thursday thru Sunday so I'm pretty sure we'll get to everything . Below is the response I got from TP as to why the predictions suddenly increased:



"Thanks for contacting us! Disney recently released new park hours for October. These expanded hours and showtimes indicates they are expecting larger crowds.

We have adjusted our predictions accordingly. Your best protection against crowds is to have a touring plan and arrive early at the park.

Hope this helps!


Gerelyn"

Taking this with a HUGE grain of salt....