Touring Plans vs. EasyWDW

[Arden01]

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[bwang123]

I prefer touring plans for their mathematically rigorous approach. To my knowledge, it's the only site that shares their accuracy every week.

Their "accuracy" is not always right or close to right and turned me off the site quickly. We went during spring break one year, TP had AK as a 9. It rained all day, the park was empty and everything was a walk-on. A few days later, I checked TP and they had it at an actual of 8. It's been a few years since I visited them though. I got the feeling at the time that since they are in the selling people on their "accuracy" business it would not be wise to show that they were that inaccurate. It came across as highly shady.

 

[SeanTomorrow]

Their "accuracy" is not always right or close to right and turned me off the site quickly. We went during spring break one year, TP had AK as a 9. It rained all day, the park was empty and everything was a walk-on. A few days later, I checked TP and they had it at an actual of 8. It's been a few years since I visited them though. I got the feeling at the time that since they are in the selling people on their "accuracy" business it would not be wise to show that they were that inaccurate. It came across as highly shady.

Well, I'm not sure I'd blame them for failing to predict the rain....

But you're saying they are cooking the books, which would break my heart if true. It got me looking through a couple recent weeks of their self-reporting

Here's one where they self-report being off: http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/01/13/disney-world-crowd-calendar-report-january-4-10-2015/
Here's another with some days that were off: http://blog.touringplans.com/2014/12/02/disney-world-crowd-report-november-23-29-2014/

It doesn't quite look like Bernie Madoff to me Things would be better if there was another crowd site to compare to. But haven't found one yet, and EasyWDW doesn't try to do that.

 

[Magpie]

I have to agree with pp. I really like both Easy and Touring Plans- and esp like Easy for its crowd calendars, cheat sheets, restaurant reviews. I really enjoyed the humor and yes the snark in some of the blog posts. However, the latest blog post really turned me off. The proprietor highlighted someone's question to him, posted her name and seem to take her question as a personal attack and then mocked her. Then a bunch of commenters proceeded to ridicule her as well. A few people defended her, but they got shouted down. What bothered me was that it was an innocent enough question, one that anyone may have asked, and it didn't warrant that kind of public ridicule. She even went on to apologize several times, but it was never acknowledged by the proprietor. I may glance at his site from time to time in the future, but am wary now.

Everyone's tolerance for snark is different.

If I'd written "... your crowd estimate was completely off" to Josh, I wouldn't have been particularly offended if he'd picked my post to highlight why his estimate wasn't "off". In fact, I was rather entertained by the "game" he suggested and might have been tempted to take him up on it, if I'd had the resources. Though, I'm inclined to think he's correct, since he has talked about it frequently in the past, and it lines up with my own observations.

Honestly, I didn't find the post problematic. He didn't call her names, just presented his arguments for why he believes she's wrong, with a small side helping of snark. And - scanning through the comments - some of Kira's "defenders" were pretty darn vitriolic themselves. ("Over-sensitive attack dog"? :-D) My feeling on this is, meh, internet discussion can be rough and tumble at times. It's not like the Disboards are some enlightened bastion of civility, either.

(Seriously, if Josh ever picks one of my posts to mock, I'll be all, "Hey! I'm Internet Famous!")

 

[Reddog1134]

EasyWDW has some unnecessarily rigid rules, like never go on EMH.

If, in general, a park is busier on EMH days, why would it make sense to recommend going to that park? Obviously, there are reasons to go to a park on EMH days, but low crowd levels is not one of them.

 

[Laketravis]

It's noted that as a benefit and in the interest of full disclosure TP critiques themselves by looking back at what they predicted and openly showing what the park conditions actually turned out to be.

My question would then be.... how often are they wrong? Because being a weather person is the only career I'm aware of where you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.

 

[Magpie]

If, in general, a park is busier on EMH days, why would it make sense to recommend going to that park? Obviously, there are reasons to go to a park on EMH days, but low crowd levels is not one of them.

It may be the best of a bad lot. For instance, if you've only got three days to tour, you may have to make some hard choices with regards to which park you visit when, in order to see all four parks.

And, as Josh frequently points out, if you have park hoppers and are able to stay right to the end, EMH parks can actually be quite enjoyable - though, not so much any more as the evening EMH's have been shortened to just 2 hours. One of the things I like about EasyWDW is that I don't find his rules "rigid" at all. Instead, he says, if you go this is what you will encounter. This is how you can work around these conditions. It's your decision to make!

Personally, I've made good use of EMH at various times of the year. We've gone to morning EMH and been at the gates before opening and got some terrific touring done in the first hour and a half, before hopping to another park to escape the crowds. We've gone to evening EMH at Hollywood Studios and wandered around an almost deserted Osborne lights (magical!). We've closed out the day at Animal Kingdom, walking onto all the rides with no waits, and then headed over to Epcot for EMH, so we can see Illuminations and grab some snacks from the Flower and Garden Festival stalls. It was crowded, but most people weren't eating, so we were happy.

What you don't want to do is get up at ten in the morning and meander over to the park with early morning hours, intending to hit all the rides. It'll be a madhouse. You also don't want to head over to (let's say) Magic Kingdom after dinner, with plans to stay for evening magic hours (11pm to 1am) and then realize the crowds are crazier than you expected and you're entirely too tired to last, and end up leaving at 10pm elbow-to-elbow with everyone else. It's not a recipe for a good time.

 

[Reddog1134]

My question would then be.... how often are they wrong? Because being a weather person is the only career I'm aware of where you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.

I can think of others, but political debates are not allowed on the DIS.

 

[Arden01]

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[soniam]

It seems that using both wouldn't be a bad thing; however, I have only used TP. I started out with it and The Unofficial Guide. It worked well, so I have stuck with it for 2 past WDW visits, DLR, and an upcoming WDW and Uni visit. I also always use the personalized plans, and we go during summer/Spring Break. Maybe try both and see which one fits your style.

 

[jharaldson]

It's noted that as a benefit and in the interest of full disclosure TP critiques themselves by looking back at what they predicted and openly showing what the park conditions actually turned out to be.

My question would then be.... how often are they wrong? Because being a weather person is the only career I'm aware of where you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.

I looked at the last 5 days and found the following:

Exactly correct - 2 Days
Within 1 Ranking - 2 Days
Within 2 Rankings - 1 Day

 

[Reddog1134]

I can see your point. I guess it was just too much snark for me and I felt badly for the poster. Like I said, I've liked his site, but would definitely think twice before asking him a question!

I think that maybe Josh took the post the wrong way. I can only imagine the amount of work that goes into his website. Granted it's all Disney related, but it's still work and he does it for free.

Maybe he did over react, but he seems to take a lot of unnecessary crap.

 

[Magpie]

I can see your point. I guess it was just too much snark for me and I felt badly for the poster. Like I said, I've liked his site, but would definitely think twice before asking him a question!

Very fair! I don't think I've ever asked Josh a question, come to think of it... That said, when I was a complete newbie to Disney planning, I asked a question on another site (which no longer exists) and got pretty thoroughly slapped down by other posters for asking a dumb question. It stung a little, I do admit! But, after that, I learned to research things better, before asking.

And certainly, there are questions I'd never come here with, either, unless I'm looking to start trouble. (What was that 9 year boy old doing cutting line, in a stroller, blowing bubbles, drinking from the wrong resort mug, in the ladies' room, while pool hopping with his selfie stick, anyway?)

 

[Reddog1134]

Did anyone see the article EasyWDW posted a few months ago about Touring Plans?

Apparently, TP started posting charts about how they were more accurate on predicting wait times over a "Competitor". According to TP, they were more accurate.

Now the competitor was never named but the wait times listed matched the wait times listed on EasyWDW. Unfortunately, they didn't match the day TP was comparing. Basically, they were showing how their predictions for a specific day in November were more accurate than EasyWDW's predictions for that same day but they were using Josh's predictions for April.

 

[SeanTomorrow]

Now the competitor was never named but the wait times listed matched the wait times listed on EasyWDW

Wait, there are wait time predictions on EasyWDW? Where?

I seriously have not yet found them, and yet this is clearly an important thing to have to even talk about accuracy. Link please....

 

[Magpie]

Wait, there are wait time predictions on EasyWDW? Where?

I seriously have not yet found them, and yet this is clearly an important thing to have to even talk about accuracy. Link please....

I think this is it:
http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...world-wait-times-and-a-touringplans-takedown/

As for his publicly available wait times app-thingy, I think it's still a work in progress:

http://www.easywdw.com/waits/

 

[Reddog1134]

Wait, there are wait time predictions on EasyWDW? Where?

I seriously have not yet found them, and yet this is clearly an important thing to have to even talk about accuracy. Link please....

Reading is fundamental. (That's a note to myself, not you Sean)

After re-reading the article I realized the information is based on crowd levels. TP pulled EasyWDW's outdated numbers from over a year earlier, instead of using his latest draft.

The predicted waits for each crowd level are listed on his Cheat Sheets.

I think this is it:
http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...world-wait-times-and-a-touringplans-takedown/

As for his publicly available wait times app-thingy, I think it's still a work in progress:

http://www.easywdw.com/waits/

That's the article, but the waits link is for actual waits. Not his predictions.

 

[SeanTomorrow]

The predicted waits for each crowd level are listed on his Cheat Sheets.

Aha! Thank you.

That blog post was interesting. He redid their numbers and only seemed to challenge the conclusion on one ride (From a "TP wins" to a tie or "EasyWDW wins"). It seems like one would do fine using either site.

I do really like the the cheat sheet maps though. They're a nice way to communicate some basic rules.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Wait, there are wait time predictions on EasyWDW? Where?

I seriously have not yet found them, and yet this is clearly an important thing to have to even talk about accuracy. Link please....

I've never seen his crowd levels tied to predicted wait times nor have I seen predicted wait times on his site. It's my understanding that the wait times he posted on his site were taken from Disney. I am a pretty sarcastic person, but sometimes I find his posts a little too snarky for me.

 

[3levinson]

Everyone's tolerance for snark is different.

If I'd written "... your crowd estimate was completely off" to Josh, I wouldn't have been particularly offended if he'd picked my post to highlight why his estimate wasn't "off". In fact, I was rather entertained by the "game" he suggested and might have been tempted to take him up on it, if I'd had the resources. Though, I'm inclined to think he's correct, since he has talked about it frequently in the past, and it lines up with my own observations.

Honestly, I didn't find the post problematic. He didn't call her names, just presented his arguments for why he believes she's wrong, with a small side helping of snark. And - scanning through the comments - some of Kira's "defenders" were pretty darn vitriolic themselves. ("Over-sensitive attack dog"? :-D) My feeling on this is, meh, internet discussion can be rough and tumble at times. It's not like the Disboards are some enlightened bastion of civility, either.

(Seriously, if Josh ever picks one of my posts to mock, I'll be all, "Hey! I'm Internet Famous!")

If he had quoted her message and responded to it without her name included or simply paraphrased it and then responded, that would have been okay. But once you start including names of people in a post like that and you allow your followers to bash said person (and yes, the defenders started getting vitriolic, however, had this been handled correctly the need for defenders shouldn't have even existed), you have crossed the line. And note, this is not a first time that this very thing has happened either on the site or on his Twitter feed. This has become a pattern. When I first joined the site some 3-4 years ago, I was fully devoted to the whole thing. People were not allowed to make comments that included someone else's name. Now, the owner is doing it and has no problems with people following along with it.

As for the mocking one of your posts, if you ever ask an honest question that you are just looking for some help on, and it becomes the focus of ridicule and mockery, please then tell me that you are still happy about it. Until then, let's be honest, we all never really know how we will feel/react in a situation until we are in it.