Disfan1968
Ordinary Pig
- Joined
- Apr 27, 2014
- Messages
- 823
For what it's worth, I just re-evaluated all ten days of my trip on TP and while wait times went up here and there, it wasn't by much, even on days with a 3 point increase. So, who knows.
Ditto that ..Wow. We'll be there right after that. Does it go down do you know? (24-29th)
Ditto that ..
I planned a trip at the end of August due to predicted low crowd levels (and past crowd levels) (AND it happens to correspond with my son's birthday)... I figure my family (and in-laws) will forgive me for the heat and humidity if crowd levels are low.
I still can't imagine it being as busy that last week of August compared to June/July or even mid August .. SOME kids (despite the late Labor Day) will be back in school (or close enough that a family doesn't want to go on vacation days before) ... it is just before the first day of Free Dining (and I am sure a lot of people have their vacations starting on August 28th or 29th because of it) (I would have tried to shift my vacation to start a few days later if I qualified (too short of trip). Plus ... some people just avoid that time due to the known heat (I know I considered it)
That being said .. the room only summer discount isn't anything to scoff at, and I'm sure many have taken advantage ... after discount .. my reservations at Pop Century will be costing less per night than most roadside hotel chains.
I'm just curious how they make their predictions besides just "past experience" .. the only way it seems to make an accurate crowd prediction is to look at information that I would think they don't have at their disposal.:
1) % rooms/packages booked on resort during that time
2) Fast Pass reservations (which are unknown yet)
3) ADR reservations at specific parks
Disney World is just more crowded than it used to be (I went first week of October and it was more crowded than I expected (but still had a great time thanks to the Fast Pass system)).
Going to guess they revised the levels based on park hours being added and hotel occupancy levels.
We are going Aug. 16-23 and I know it'll be busy and there is nothing I can do about that except have a good plan. Worse comes to worse we can always stay in our lovely DVC resort for more hours per day.
They extended hours at MK and DHS for our dates (8/20-8/29) but that was a while ago. When the hours first came out, MK was closing at 10 and HS at 8:30; both got extended by an hour and they added a second MSEP at MK. But as I said, these changes came out at least a month ago so I doubt that's what's causing the crowd level updates now.I have heard this before about park hours, but for the life of me, I don't see any added park hours. They look exactly the same as they were when I started planning in earnest in January. Can anyone confirm or deny this?
For our August trip they have added hours to the following:I have heard this before about park hours, but for the life of me, I don't see any added park hours. They look exactly the same as they were when I started planning in earnest in January. Can anyone confirm or deny this?
For our August trip they have added hours to the following:
HS (every day of our trip has seen hours added)
AK (Two of the seven days has seen added hours)
MK (Four of the seven days has seen added hours)
Only Epcot has remained the same. What that tells me is they are expecting huge crowds.
Basically the more I look at all of this information the more its clear that getting to the parks early and having a good touring plan is more important than crowd level predictions. As they say, if you are 'zigging' while most other people are 'zagging' you won't be affected by the crowds.
I had never made a rope drop before last year, but after experiencing it I'm a total convert. And we weren't even using TP then, just my own plans somewhat based on the cheat sheets from easyWDW. I'll never forget walking right through the massive queue area of Under the Sea. I think it took us longer just to walk through than the time we waited to board once we finally got to the front. On another RD day at MK we were the first family to meet Tink; the CM told my DD that Tink was waking up just to see her.This. I know it isn't for everyone, but if your #1 priority is crowd avoidance, you still can't beat RD. Even on an 8 day last year, the first 90 minutes, everything in NFL except SDMT and Tomorrowland were walk on.
We get there the day before thanksgiving and are there for a week; it's a mixed bag of higher and lower crowd levels depending on park/ day. The day before thanksgiving at MK went from a 7 to a 4! I hope it stays that way, but I'm sure it'll get adjusted back up before November.
My levels all went up 2-3 points for the first half of my trip. In a couple of instances my "best" park changed but I like my ADRs so I'm just going to stick with my park plan as is. Also I feel like "best park" is somewhat relative, since MK is always going to be more crowded than AK (for example) and parks with EMH are generally more crowded but can be a good choice if you are utilizing the EMH. My criteria is if an individual park crowd level is at or below the total resort crowd level, it's probably an okay choice.Although I get the frustration in changes, especially from a pay site (I had the same frustration in October) if all the parks and resort-wide estimates all go up, it really doesn't matter a whole lot. Unless you have the ability to totally change your vacation to a different week, you're already going to be there. Whether you will see the levels at 3-5 as you originally hoped, or 5-7 now, it's the whole water level rising at once. At least that's how my numbers went - I guess you may be seeing a 3 step increase at DHS and only 1 point at MK,thus changing your "best" park.
As a PP noted, your touring plan is at least as important as park selection (if not more so). Touring Plans' site even says so. Of course tests easy for me to say, as I always use recommended parks and have a very loose tour plan! Imagine how well I'd do if I could follow my own advice (of get my family to agree to follow a touring plan!)![]()
did you get an email from TP, cause I never received anything?I'm so sad about this! We always plan our dates with low crowd levels, none of us like crowds. That is the most important thing for us!
We booked for November 11th-17th and almost every single one went up by 2. Some went up by 3. That's a lot of large jumps. I completely expected a few park days going up one or two levels, but all of them?!
I emailed Touringplans.com in regards to this, but haven't heard back yet.
16th to 23rd here too....I guess we just have to suck it up and like you said..head back during the day to cool off and enjoy the pool ( CBR here )..the Florida kids/AP holders go back to school on the 17th so we might get luckyGoing to guess they revised the levels based on park hours being added and hotel occupancy levels.
We are going Aug. 16-23 and I know it'll be busy and there is nothing I can do about that except have a good plan. Worse comes to worse we can always stay in our lovely DVC resort for more hours per day.
did you get an email from TP, cause I never received anything?