Touring plans crowd tracker jump - Nov/Dec 2016

[godders]

Anyone else get this email?

I'm headed to the world 28th Nov-4th of December so arrving the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

Their predictions have changed dramatically on expected crowds for example on 28th November the crowds at Epcot have jumped from a 1 to a 5.

No longer is my week looking like 1-4 crowds with the occasional 6 (MK on a non party night with evening EMH). Now it is mostly 5+..... Even got a 9 that week now.

I know people have said that TP has been way off in their predictions of late but now I'm worried. The same happened for my trip last year and the parks were as busy as they predicted

Grrrrrr!

 

[smiths02]

Thanksgiving is the 24th, so without knowing anything about the crowd predictions, I would expect that at least the beginning of the next week would still have Thanksgiving crowds

 

[GrnMtnMan]

Anyone else get this email?

Their predictions have changed dramatically on expected crowds for example on 28th November the crowds at Epcot have jumped from a 1 to a 5.

No longer is my week looking like 1-4 crowds with the occasional 6 (MK on a non party night with evening EMH). Now it is mostly 5+..... Even got a 9 that week now.

I know people have said that TP has been way off in their predictions of late but now I'm worried. The same happened for my trip last year and the parks were as busy as they predicted

Grrrrrr!

They recalibrated their model. Some dates the prediction changed, but for many expected wait times didn’t change, just what they call that expected wait time.

See the blog post about the change here.

 

[Hagrid xox 65]

I got this email too.. I knew the original predictions were too good to be true. Hoping they extend the EMM dates into late Nov/early Dec

 

[ValerieK]

I also got the email and I looked at my Thanksgiving night plan, it still says that POTC will have an estimated wait of 21 minutes at 7:30pm
Not sure that is accurate at all.

 

[dreiwhit]

OP, was this for the week after Thanksgiving week or for a week later in December?

 

[qv09vvp]

I got that email too...for week of Dec 10-17. It's horrible. I've been talking and talking about having 3 & 4's at least for the beginning of the week & now it jumped to 9 on some days. We were planning to do that same "week" in 2017 with the whole family....but heck, I don't know if that week is any better than say October now. trying to not be a sad sack here, but man ..what a letdown.

 

[godders]

Thanksgiving is the 24th, so without knowing anything about the crowd predictions, I would expect that at least the beginning of the next week would still have Thanksgiving crowds

Was this for the week after Thanksgiving week?

Sorry should've included the dates - I arrive the 27th November which is the Sunday after Thanksgiving and a, heading on the following Sunday on the 4th. I'll edit my original post to add the dates.

 

[tsme]

I received an email also, but for September. The crowds are up for then too.
Of course at this point is all too late to do anything. Our ADRs & FPs are booked & our room is paid for. Not that I would change my dates, but I might have picked different parks on different days.

 

[busymomma123]

We are there for Oct 28- Nov 4 and all the numbers are higher too.

 

[godders]

I got that email too...for week of Dec 10-17. It's horrible. I've been talking and talking about having 3 & 4's at least for the beginning of the week & now it jumped to 9 on some days. We were planning to do that same "week" in 2017 with the whole family....but heck, I don't know if that week is any better than say October now. trying to not be a sad sack here, but man ..what a letdown.

Yeh I've got my 2017 trip booked for that time as well. Definitely disappointing if it turns out to be accurate. That being said, I've moved it back from early September because of the heat. Don't mind larger crowds as long as it's not too hot (although having experienced a 10 day at DLR this past Feb I can tell you that was not much fun either!

 

[dreiwhit]

Sorry should've included the dates - I arrive the 27th November which is the Sunday after Thanksgiving and a, heading on the following Sunday on the 4th. I'll edit my original post to add the dates.

I had thought that's what you meant, and i'm really curious as to how they can say crowds will go up that much during that week. I can understand crowds going from a 1 to a 2 or a 1 to a 3, but the jump that you said was pretty big.

Especially for the week after Thanksgiving. K-12 and colleges are out for much or all of Thanksgiving week and back in school on the 28th. I pulled up the schedules for the two biggest universities in the state, and they are all in class on the 28th and exams are the following week. I looked at local K-12 school schedules and they are all back in class that week. There's nothing to say that Mom & Dad could have kept them out that week to go to Disney, but will the parents have that much additional vacation time to take off?

I'm just really puzzled at that kind of jump in forecasted crowd levels.....

 

[Nancyg56]

I got that email too...for week of Dec 10-17. It's horrible. I've been talking and talking about having 3 & 4's at least for the beginning of the week & now it jumped to 9 on some days. We were planning to do that same "week" in 2017 with the whole family....but heck, I don't know if that week is any better than say October now. trying to not be a sad sack here, but man ..what a letdown.

My trip is December 10 thru 18. I knew that there would be changes, there always are. But 9???? I need to check, is it for non party nights in the MK? The Saturday's are always a nightmare.

 

[MrsHull]

Don't be too concerned. I went that same week last year and the TP crowd calendar jumped just the same. It was really no big deal, even with specia events like the opening of Star Wars Launch Pad and the return of the three caballeros. Most wait times were 10-15 minutes, with many being walk ons.

 

[twoolle]

We too have booked Nov 27- Dec 3 with park days Nov 28, 29, Dec 1,2. I had checked 3 different crowd calendars before booking and they all showed as very low crowds. With these new estimates I don't know what that means! We have good touring plans and don't wait in lines much, but navigating the crowds with 4 kids and a double stroller is what gets to us most! We haven't decided 100% that we are going, and once I mention this to DH he might just say we should cancel. Ugh.

 

[Princesca]

Yep - I got that email too. From the best I can tell, they are increasing crowd levels seemingly based on crowd feel. One of the things they cited was Hollywood Studios, with the back half of the park being closed, really, it's made the rest of the park feel more crowded. Makes sense - cut the square acreage of a park, and you're fitting the same amount of people into less space, and onto fewer attractions. So it sounds to me like it's not so much that crowd size has increased, as crowd capacity has decreased. One would assume with other attractions being down for repairs or broken, this exacerbates the problem as well.

 

[MichiganScott]

Same, and being a flyer and a ADR-user, not like I can change much of anything right now plan-wise anyway. The reality in Dec will be exactly what it will be. The only real thing that changed between yesterday and today is my perception of what that reality might be. In other words, nothing I can do, so I'm not all that concerned

 

[SBWB48]

I received an email also, but for September. The crowds are up for then too.
Of course at this point is all too late to do anything. Our ADRs & FPs are booked & our room is paid for. Not that I would change my dates, but I might have picked different parks on different days.

I'm at work and haven't been able to check my e-mail yet, but is it for all of September? We are going in late September where the crowds were suppose to be slightly higher than early to mid, but now I'm worried how much higher...are we looking at summer levels?? Heck, now it seems like July is the best time to go crowd wise given all the reports from this past week!!

 

[TikiMan0228]

Same thing in Sept. Labor Day week. Most only jumped a point or 2. No biggie bit Sept 4th AK went from a 3 to a 9?!? That is a huge jump. Yes it is a Holiday weekend but a 9?? It is not our AK day so not concerned. I thought maybe ROL 2.0 might be rolling out that day.

38 days!!!

 

[Princesca]

Apparently the change in algorithm or whatever was from Aug 1 on.