Touring Plan 2/10 no longer exist

[sherilaine]

We visited last March, a 2/10 was nice and empty, today TP has it as a 2, they need to adjust to the new DLR!.

 

[CourtFool]

Riddles speak you in.

 

[Girimama33]

You have to be aware by now that DLR crowd predictions are notoriously wrong.


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[sherilaine]

You have to be aware by now that DLR crowd predictions are notoriously wrong.

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They were accurate before Carsland though, they have just not adjusted since then. We were there for a "2" when you walked on rides, the park was a ghost town compared to weekends, not anymore!

 

[ronandannette]

You have to be aware by now that DLR crowd predictions are notoriously wrong.


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Wrong high or wrong low? I just bought Touring Plans for our upcoming trip and with a super-limited amount of time I'm pretty much relying on them to be right .

 

[sherilaine]

I am not saying they are wrong, maybe today was a 2 relatively, but if that is the case I would NEVER come here during a 9 or 10...I think DLR is just busier now than it was before, so maybe it is our expectations that need adjusting.

 

[Girimama33]

They were accurate before Carsland though, they have just not adjusted since then. We were there for a "2" when you walked on rides, the park was a ghost town compared to weekends, not anymore!

People on these boards have commented on the inaccuracies of the TP crowd predictor long before Cars Land was a factor. Between the local population and events/conventions that take place in the area, it is difficult to for them to predict...even with all of the historical data.
When I was there a few weeks ago, the crowd level was predicted to be a 7. I did not find that to be the case. I did not find the park was at 70% capacity...seemed like a 3-5 depending on the day.

 

[sheetz]

Typically the parks get slammed the first day after a rain storm so that might be what happened today.

 

[sherilaine]

Typically the parks get slammed the first day after a rain storm so that might be what happened today.

I was at the park on Monday, it never rained at all after 9:00 at DLR. So that is not it.

 

[sheetz]

I was at the park on Monday, it never rained at all after 9:00 at DLR. So that is not it.

How were crowds on Monday? If today was much more crowded then it may very well indicate that people postponed their trips to the parks. Even if the rain stopped at 9am people may have already decided to do something else instead of heading to the parks. Or maybe they felt there was a good chance that it would rain later on in the day.

 

[dleyel]

I was there today to watch my son's middle school jazz band perform and I definitely didn't think it was a 2. I was surprised at the crowds in both parks. We did ride RSR single rider at 10:35 with only a 20 minute wait. At times Soarin was only 15 minutes. I only stayed until 2:30, but DS said the line was a lot longer later. Saw quite a few school groups.

Some may have stayed away yesterday since it was raining in many other areas. They might have thought it would rain at DLR too. I only live 20 minutes away and it rained later than 9 here.

 

[sherilaine]

How were crowds on Monday? If today was much more crowded then it may very well indicate that people postponed their trips to the parks. Even if the rain stopped at 9am people may have already decided to do something else instead of heading to the parks. Or maybe they felt there was a good chance that it would rain later on in the day.

It was busy yesterday too, certainly not as empty as you would think a "rain day" would be.

 

[mickeyfan0805]

People on these boards have commented on the inaccuracies of the TP crowd predictor long before Cars Land was a factor. Between the local population and events/conventions that take place in the area, it is difficult to for them to predict...even with all of the historical data.
When I was there a few weeks ago, the crowd level was predicted to be a 7. I did not find that to be the case. I did not find the park was at 70% capacity...seemed like a 3-5 depending on the day.

For clarification - TP ratings have nothing to do with park capacity. It is all based on relative crowds. In a very simplified version, a crowd level of 7 does not mean that the park is at 70% capacity, it means that the crowds on that day will be higher than 60% of the days throughout the year and lower than the other 30% (the 60/30 breakdown is a reflection of the fact that a '7' rating actually includes every day that would fall between 61-70%).

I have no experience with TP and DLR (we are more experienced with WDW), but it is certainly feasible that a 2 simply may be more crowded than it used to be. If the park is succeeding in its goal of drawing in more people over the course of a year, then a 2 is going to be inherently more busy than it was when the crowds were smaller.

Is this the case with the issues expressed here? I have no idea. But, it's important to understand the system in order to interpret what the ratings imply.

 

[longtimedisneylurker]

so maybe it is our expectations that need adjusting.

I have no experience with TP and DLR (we are more experienced with WDW), but it is certainly feasible that a 2 simply may be more crowded than it used to be. If the park is succeeding in its goal of drawing in more people over the course of a year, then a 2 is going to be inherently more busy than it was when the crowds were smaller.

This and this. Exactly what I've been thinking about the parks and parkgoers when reading the crowd comments over the past ten months.

 

[3Minnies1Mickey]

They were accurate before Carsland though, they have just not adjusted since then. We were there for a "2" when you walked on rides, the park was a ghost town compared to weekends, not anymore!

Not for Disneyland. They had predicted that spring break and those crowds were done the day after Easter before CL opened!

 

[tdhickey]

They do a terrible job of updating their short term trends on touring plans. Ultimately they should be accurate within a 1 pt above or below the prediction, but are not even close.

 

[BlueFairy]

For clarification - TP ratings have nothing to do with park capacity. It is all based on relative crowds. In a very simplified version, a crowd level of 7 does not mean that the park is at 70% capacity, it means that the crowds on that day will be higher than 60% of the days throughout the year and lower than the other 30% (the 60/30 breakdown is a reflection of the fact that a '7' rating actually includes every day that would fall between 61-70%).

I have no experience with TP and DLR (we are more experienced with WDW), but it is certainly feasible that a 2 simply may be more crowded than it used to be. If the park is succeeding in its goal of drawing in more people over the course of a year, then a 2 is going to be inherently more busy than it was when the crowds were smaller.

Is this the case with the issues expressed here? I have no idea. But, it's important to understand the system in order to interpret what the ratings imply.

Yes, this. TP bases their predictions on data and statistics. You have to read the fine print to understand what the crowd rating means. I am sure they make errors, but understanding the "how" is very important when basing your touring on the crowd calendar.

Also, it seems to me that since the crowd calendar is derived from wait times at headliner attractions, a "locals' park" would inherently have more errors. Locals come to eat and shop and view nighttime shows. They don't always spend all day and ride headliners. You may feel that the park is insanely crowded. However, if a prediciton of 2 correlates to "x" number of minutes of waiting in a standby line but all of the crowds are there to see Fantasmic!, then the 2 is not going to be very representative of your experience.

Also, here is a quote from TP on how the calendar is intended to be used:
"Disneyland crowds are hard to predict even for seasoned veterans. Our Disneyland Crowd Calendar is extensively researched by professional statisticians to help you answer "When to go to Disneyland?" This calendar ranks crowds in Disneyland for the next 365 days to help you have the best trip possible. You should use it to:
Compare two sets of travel dates to see which has the lower crowds.
See how long the lines will be for your travel dates.
Decide which Disneyland Touring Plan (if any) to use."

 

[sherilaine]

DLR is busier today than it was on Sunday, so TP can shove their 2s up their butt, clearly they are delusional or they never come here?

 

[mkarizona]

When we were there last week TP said 6 but I don't think it was over 3. It was just empty.

 

[djk]

When we were there last week TP said 6 but I don't think it was over 3. It was just empty.

Hi there, just wondering which day last week was like a 3?