Toughest resort at 7 months

[JayUK32]

Hello all,

I’ve been skulking around on the boards for a few weeks now but here goes with my first post.

I have been looking into purchasing DVC and have been researching for a month or two now. We are a family of 2 adults and two kids (5 & 8) who all love Disney and want to make it an annual trip from the UK generally travelling for 10-14 nights at a time.

We really like both the AKV and BWV and would likely alternate yearly between studio and 1 bed villa in order to save a little on points.

I guess my main question is which of AKV and BWV are harder to book at 7 months out.... this may determine which home resort we choose. We tend to visit either May or early December which I know is a busy DVC time

Would it be beneficial to take out two smaller contracts and have one at each with same UY? Could I theoretically then choose whichever I want and combine points?

Thanks

 

[Sandisw]

BWV will be harder to book than AKV for most room types, except AKV concierge and value rooms.

Early December is a very difficult time to book, even at 11 months so if you want to be near a park, owning at BWV would be much better.

Now, if you want to own both, you can do that, but each one will still only be valid at its own resort at 11 months. Points from different resorts, even if part of the same membership...same UY..can not be combined for a stay until 7 months.

BWV points can only be used at BWV and AKV points can only be used at AKV during home resort booking times.

However, if you own both, you could use banking and borrowing to book at 11 months and then alternate resort bookings that way.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

You can get two contracts with the same UY and combine at 7 months, but not before.
AKL is not difficult at 7 mos unless you want value or club level. BWV is avail at 7 mos but not during food fest.
BWV has fewer years left which is a consideration. Personally, BWV is a much more desirable location, better for when the kids get older.

 

[JayUK32]

I totally agree with the draw for when the kids get a little older. It would be nice to be in walking distance to two parks also.

In terms of the years remaining on the contract what are the thoughts on Disney doing what they did with OKW... certainly with the more popular resorts?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I totally agree with the draw for when the kids get a little older. It would be nice to be in walking distance to two parks also.

In terms of the years remaining on the contract what are the thoughts on Disney doing what they did with OKW... certainly with the more popular resorts?

They won't. Period.

 

[The Jackal]

They won't. Period.

They have to do something. They or they will be taking back 5 resorts that year. That’s a lot of inventory for them to sell.

 

[Sandisw]

They have to do something. They or they will be taking back 5 resorts that year. That’s a lot of inventory for them to sell.

I think they might do something with BRV.. But only to extend to match with CCV.

I dont see them doing anything with BWV or BCV, other than maybe giving owners there a small discount to buy first to start 50 years from 2042, with a new point charts,

Or begin marketing those two resorts in the last 10 years with new owners getting to use their contract prior to 2042 under old charts, and new ones with 50 years left starting 2042.

I think they will find creative ways to make continuing there for another 50 years. What I don’t think they will do is offer current owners an option like they did with OKW, where it is very inexpensive.

Of course, by then, both RIV and Reflections will have come into play and Disney may take the time to redevelop 2042 resorts as both these new places will have added a ton of rooms to the DVC product.

I think HH and VB will be removed

 

[montreid]

Toughest at 7? VGC.

 

[sethschroeder]

Of course, by then, both RIV and Reflections will have come into play and Disney may take the time to redevelop 2042 resorts as both these new places will have added a ton of rooms to the DVC product.

If it takes 3 years to sell out RIV then REF with 3x the rooms could take 9 years (2030) which almost lines up with your 10 year window for pre-sales.

I don't see them taking those resorts offline though (Epcot vs Reflections is a drastically different buyer). Especially since they are attached to hotels. I can see portions of inventory being out of commission in 42/43 though as they possibly gut rooms for a hard reburb/redesign possibly purposely making a BCV contract 55 years to misalign with BWV.

I do think though your right about pre-sales and we will start to see the turn over sales begin prior to expiration. My thought is 5 years out though.

Disney would have 3 years per resort then to sell out by 2049 which would be 5 years prior to Saratoga expiring. That being the biggest hurdle with its size.

If anything gets taken offline I think it's only BCV and it's because Disney decides to redo Stormalong Bay. Knowing Disney though they would simply give a "discount" on that 55 year contract with year 5 being the actual launch with new rooms and new pool.

 

[Sandisw]

If it takes 3 years to sell out RIV then REF with 3x the rooms could take 9 years (2030) which almost lines up with your 10 year window for pre-sales.

I don't see them taking those resorts offline though (Epcot vs Reflections is a drastically different buyer). Especially since they are attached to hotels. I can see portions of inventory being out of commission in 42/43 though as they possibly gut rooms for a hard reburb/redesign possibly purposely making a BCV contract 55 years to misalign with BWV.

I do think though your right about pre-sales and we will start to see the turn over sales begin prior to expiration. My thought is 5 years out though.

Disney would have 3 years per resort then to sell out by 2049 which would be 5 years prior to Saratoga expiring. That being the biggest hurdle with its size.

If anything gets taken offline I think it's only BCV and it's because Disney decides to redo Stormalong Bay. Knowing Disney though they would simply give a "discount" on that 55 year contract with year 5 being the actual launch with new rooms and new pool.

I agree that they have lots of options on how they are going to handle it all and I would not be surprised if those ideas are already being discussed!

 

[Brianstl]

I think they might do something with BRV.. But only to extend to match with CCV.

I dont see them doing anything with BWV or BCV, other than maybe giving owners there a small discount to buy first to start 50 years from 2042, with a new point charts,

Or begin marketing those two resorts in the last 10 years with new owners getting to use their contract prior to 2042 under old charts, and new ones with 50 years left starting 2042.

I think they will find creative ways to make continuing there for another 50 years. What I don’t think they will do is offer current owners an option like they did with OKW, where it is very inexpensive.

Of course, by then, both RIV and Reflections will have come into play and Disney may take the time to redevelop 2042 resorts as both these new places will have added a ton of rooms to the DVC product.

I think HH and VB will be removed

They will have to offer at least some kind of shorter term lease at one of the two Crescent Lake resorts. The will not sell them for another 50 years. That will put facilities at around a century old before the leases would expire. Disney isn’t going to tear down and rebuild their three Crescent Crescent Lake Hotels at the same time. That is leaving too much money on the table.

 

[poofyo101]

VGC.

 

[Sandisw]

They will have to offer at least some kind of shorter term lease at one of the two Crescent Lake resorts. The will not sell them for another 50 years. That will put facilities at around a century old before the leases would expire. Disney isn’t going to tear down and rebuild their three Crescent Crescent Lake Hotels at the same time. That is leaving too much money on the table.

I dont see them doing a tear down, but tather a remodel of the properties and can’t see them doing any sort of short term extension.

I believe they will find a way to make them new. But it’s Disney, so none of us will know for about 10 years or so.

No matter what they do, that location will always be popular due to its proximity to the parks, which is why booking either at 7 months will Always be more difficult than those not close to parks.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

They absolutely won't do an OKW on it. It would keep the resorts on same point charts in BVT1, thereby retaining them as O14 resorts under ongoing restrictions they're trying to place. They won't be able to change point charts if they do a flat extend on the land lease, and run into the same legal issues that still plague OKW.

Realistically, Disney don't know what they'll do with the 2042 resorts. The executives who will make those calls are currently very junior within the organization, at best.

 

[Deb & Bill]

My guess is they will just continue to rent them out as hotels and not as timeshares. Then begin renovations on a portion at a time to resell the resort at a later date. Possibly even retheme the resort as they renovate.

 

[Disn3yVision]

BWV is harder to get at 7 months but AKV is our preference between the two resorts. The busses from AKV definitely are not ideal though, especially with small children.

 

[kboo]

Would it be beneficial to take out two smaller contracts and have one at each with same UY? Could I theoretically then choose whichever I want and combine points?

yes - sort of - I wouldn't combine points. But if you're looking at longer stays anyway:
If you love both, get enough points at each resort to book about 5-7 days at each in a studio or 1br. Then book a split stay for your 10-14 day stay. We love split stays (as long as you're spending at least 3 nights in each place)! Alternatively, you could bank and borrow and use each contract every other year, so 2 weeks at AKV using 2 years of your AKV points, then the next year do 2 weeks at BWV using 2 years of BWV points, etc.

Keep in mind that all BWV 2br are lock offs, there are no dedicated 2br. So they are as hard to get as studios. That and the 2042 end date ended up making us rethink our love for BWV.

 

[JayUK32]

Thank you all for the replies, much appreciated.
Getting two smaller contracts and alternating years makes sense, at least then the kids can enjoy both and we could aim for 1BR more often than not as they get a little older

Do the preferred/BW view rooms go as quick as standard rooms at 11 months or do they tend to hang around a little longer?

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you all for the replies, much appreciated.
Getting two smaller contracts and alternating years makes sense, at least then the kids can enjoy both and we could aim for 1BR more often than not as they get a little older

Do the preferred/BW view rooms go as quick as standard rooms at 11 months or do they tend to hang around a little longer?

BW view is a booking catergortu and those go fast in the fall but I have gotten them with no problems other times.

Poil and garden are much easier to get. If you are getting 1 bedrooms, much easier!

 

[jerseyduke]

They have to do something. They or they will be taking back 5 resorts that year. That’s a lot of inventory for them to sell.

Who says they HAVE to sell it?

Then can rent out the rooms for cash.

By that time, barring any major changes in the landscape, DVD will not have any prime locations to build new resorts.

I think they will rent out BWV (basically make them part of the Inn) while the refurb BCV to resell, with higher point requirements.

The could maybe do something along the lines of a short term contract at BRV to make it match CCV - particularly since they went out of their way to keep CCV point charts in line with BRV. But I am not so sure they will even do that, its not that 'short term' being their lease end dates are basically 25 years apart.

I would under no circumstances buy with the notion that they may do an extension.