Too many people using crowd predictors?

[North of Mouse]

Are they helpful? In our five years going, I've never once looked at a crowd calendar. I guess it depends on the time of year you are going but I'm probably one of the few who have never and will never use them!

I agree! Never have used them and have had no problems. If one park seems a little more crowded than we like, after a few hours we just go to another park.

 

[Strulli]

I'm not sure there is a NON crowded day any more.

 

[Disneymom1126]

The OP clearly stated that she went to TP's most recommend park & it was terribly crowded, then went back on a day it was TP's not recommended park, and crowds were much lighter. That's a comparison that has nothing to do with expectations, 2014 vs. 2016, or with FP+. It's simply about the calendar being wrong about which day of week is the best to go.

Well I guess you told me...

If you don't like the crowd calendars or think their wrong don't use them...simple as that...there is a post started about every few days on here blaming crowd calendars for someone's vacation being screwed up...I was simply pointing out that only reading the calendar itself won't give you as much info as reading the blog...I read the first post and wasn't necessarily responding directly to that post...I'm pretty confident a number of the blogs have suggested evening magic hours being okay because the park generally clears out after the fireworks and many kids can't make it past that time so less families stay that late...

 

[xipotec]

I am quite pleased that you remembered to include 1.21 gigawatts, but I think you were supposed to divide

 

[book_junkie]

I don't think it's the calendars per se, it's the construction. When half of Hollywood Studios is now blocked off, people park hop. And where do they go? MK. For more rides. Anyone with planning can do all the headliners in HS in the AM or PM without FP+ and use their passes at MK.
So the crowds ebb and flow there, and the calendars aren't or can't take construction traffic into account. And they'll flux again with the night attractions starting up Memorial Day weekend at AK. That will draw a huge amount of people in the evenings. Again, a flux from the predictions.

 

[mshanson3121]

I planned our summer trip religiously by them, because I was told it was the only way to have a successful trip. I won't bother next time. The day they said would be the best was the most crowded, one of the days listed as the worst was the least crowded. We'll go where we want, when we want, based on what works best for us at the time.

 

[jessg]

Crowd calendars are not magical. 90% of it is avoid EMH parks and don't go to MK on Saturday or Monday. Other than that - there are many factors that can affect them such as weather. Individuals also cannot really make accurate conclusions based on their individual experience - they can only comment on where they were at a given moment and not what it was like everywhere else. Most people do not use calendars. There's still a vast majority of people out there who do not visit these sites and just wing it or make minor plans based on friends advice. Early mornings and evenings will almost always be less crowds than the late morning - late afternoon period.

Everything is also relative. If you're there at a busy time, even the recommended park is going to be crowded. And there aren't really "slow" times anymore. Just times that aren't as crowded as others. I was there April 9-15 this year and found it perfectly manageable without doing more than a few ADRs, FP+ and knowing which park we were doing each day (and using some basic knowledge acquired over the years).

I am planning on visiting 9/2 arriving pm - 9/10 leaving pm we are thinking 5 day park hoppers and maybe water park options. We are 9 people including kids what would be your plan to get the max out of your trip I've been once on a wish trip for my daughter but this time its on our own dime so we want to enjoy to the max without over doing it of course. Our kids are 2 of them just under 3 and a 7 and 8 yr old we are staying value

 

[DavidNYC]

I am planning on visiting 9/2 arriving pm - 9/10 leaving pm we are thinking 5 day park hoppers and maybe water park options. We are 9 people including kids what would be your plan to get the max out of your trip I've been once on a wish trip for my daughter but this time its on our own dime so we want to enjoy to the max without over doing it of course. Our kids are 2 of them just under 3 and a 7 and 8 yr old we are staying value

Here are my key things to planning:
1. If you're going to actually use early morning hours (and I mean get there at rope drop for them and not 10 minute before regular opening), I'd plan some mornings to take advantage of them when you can get a lot done. This is especially true in Magic Kingdom where with the kids that age you can take great advantage of getting on a number of fantasyland rides. If you do not realistically think you'll get up early enough, plan your park days to avoid the park with EMH.
2. Note that the Halloween party will have started during your dates which means MK will close at 7pm a number of days and therefore your opportunity to see the fireworks will be limited. If you ARE NOT going to the halloween party, be sure to schedule one evening at MK on a non-party day to see the evening entertainment. (Note that I'd avoid going to MK for the full day on a non-party day as it tends to be pretty crowded because everyone wants to do the same thing.) So I'd personally go to another park during the day and hop to MK at night knowing it'll be crowded but you're going to do a couple rides, dinner, and the parade/fireworks). On the other hand, going to MK during the day on a party day and hopping elsewhere at 4pm when the party goers start to stream in is a great plan!)
3. Figure out how many table service meals you want to do and make a few reservations based on what park you'll be at that day.
4. The only other main thing to plan in advance is FP. Read the threads if you're not already up to speed on best attractions to use FP on (which could vary based on your group with kids). Crowds will have dropped off significantly during your trip so there will be good afternoon FP availability as 4th and later FP. I would use my initial FP during the late morning (not in early morning as waits are pretty good during the first hour) and early afternoon. I usually made my first FP from 10-11 and did it later in the window when stand by times really started building. The only exception would be if you have your heart set on doing one of the 4-5 attractions with little chance of add'l FP (Anna/Elsa, Mine Train, Test Track, Soarin, etc) and you have no other good time choices. Then you may want to go to one park for a few hours using standby and saving your FP for your afternoon park. There is no right answer for this, it depends on how you set your schedule over the trip.

Last thing - make sure you understand Rider Swap if you'll want to do height restricted rides. Lots of threads on that but depending on what big rides the adults or older kids want to do, you can save time using that effectively. (Note that the swap passes are good for other days so if some adults are going to get some adult time in the park such as with kids being watched by grandparents or something else, you can save the swap passes and use them then. We did that alot when we had our au pair with us - we'd save the passes so the kids weren't waiting as much and then did our turn when they were back at the hotel later.)

You'll find lots of other tips. You're going at a great time and crowds should be very manageable. You should be able to easily do everything you want in 5 days without killing yourself. You'll also have time to just take in stuff so don't skip some of the entertainment at Epcot, the shows at AK, etc. (My 6 year olds just got into Sorcerors of Magic Kingdom which they loved and was easy to do just while touring MK).

Hope some of this helps.

 

[DiannaVM]

I really worried about this being the case when it came to our trip in October, so I did the following to help ease my thoughts and suit our touring style (We don't do Hoppers):

1. Looked at the dates for the MNSSHP. Since we are going at the time when this ends, I knew that the party days would be crowded (I am talking actual party, not MK itself). So we decided to push our luck and try going after we get in on the Thursday before Halloween. I am guessing this party day has a 50/50 chance of being sold out, but being a Thursday I have my hopes up (but not too high).
2. Since originally we planned to do MK and MNSSHP on the same day, we already scheduled MK for the Friday. I figure based on my own observations last year and reports from others that since the park will close early, the crowd should be manageable, but I don't expect it to be "empty" either. When looking into it on Undercover Tourist it was Yellow and its still Yellow (my sister is helping me plan the trip and she used Kenny's calendar, but I cant remember what the colors were for our days)
3. The weekend was off limits for parks, especially Saturday because I figured there would be lots of people there (I never go to parks on the weekends). UT is only showing AK as green on that day anyway.
4. We chose AK for Sunday because we don't plan to do much there anyway, so crowd predictions were irrelevant to us for AK. So we chose Sunday as AK day because the other parks had green or yellow on other days and red on Sunday.
5. I also pointed out that because of F&W we should avoid Epcot like the plague on the weekend. However, we are going on Tuesday where UT has it predicted as red.
6. After my experience with non-party days, I suggested we skip MK on the first day after the last party. I anticipate that most people may flock to MK on Nov. 1st, so Nov. 2nd should be more manageable.

All our days are not forecasted green and I am OK with is because hopefully, as another PP pointed out, using common sense will help us out regardless of crowd forecasts.

Edit to add: Also I pay no mind to EMH. I plan on being to the parks at rope drop and I dont feel a difference between EMH parks and not, so it doesn't bother me.

 

[HM]

I've never used a crowd calendar and I know about them
I imagine there are not that many people that are aware of them and use them. The Disboards is a small group compared to all park visitors.

 

[jessg]

Here are my key things to planning:
1. If you're going to actually use early morning hours (and I mean get there at rope drop for them and not 10 minute before regular opening), I'd plan some mornings to take advantage of them when you can get a lot done. This is especially true in Magic Kingdom where with the kids that age you can take great advantage of getting on a number of fantasyland rides. If you do not realistically think you'll get up early enough, plan your park days to avoid the park with EMH.
2. Note that the Halloween party will have started during your dates which means MK will close at 7pm a number of days and therefore your opportunity to see the fireworks will be limited. If you ARE NOT going to the halloween party, be sure to schedule one evening at MK on a non-party day to see the evening entertainment. (Note that I'd avoid going to MK for the full day on a non-party day as it tends to be pretty crowded because everyone wants to do the same thing.) So I'd personally go to another park during the day and hop to MK at night knowing it'll be crowded but you're going to do a couple rides, dinner, and the parade/fireworks). On the other hand, going to MK during the day on a party day and hopping elsewhere at 4pm when the party goers start to stream in is a great plan!)
3. Figure out how many table service meals you want to do and make a few reservations based on what park you'll be at that day.
4. The only other main thing to plan in advance is FP. Read the threads if you're not already up to speed on best attractions to use FP on (which could vary based on your group with kids). Crowds will have dropped off significantly during your trip so there will be good afternoon FP availability as 4th and later FP. I would use my initial FP during the late morning (not in early morning as waits are pretty good during the first hour) and early afternoon. I usually made my first FP from 10-11 and did it later in the window when stand by times really started building. The only exception would be if you have your heart set on doing one of the 4-5 attractions with little chance of add'l FP (Anna/Elsa, Mine Train, Test Track, Soarin, etc) and you have no other good time choices. Then you may want to go to one park for a few hours using standby and saving your FP for your afternoon park. There is no right answer for this, it depends on how you set your schedule over the trip.

Last thing - make sure you understand Rider Swap if you'll want to do height restricted rides. Lots of threads on that but depending on what big rides the adults or older kids want to do, you can save time using that effectively. (Note that the swap passes are good for other days so if some adults are going to get some adult time in the park such as with kids being watched by grandparents or something else, you can save the swap passes and use them then. We did that alot when we had our au pair with us - we'd save the passes so the kids weren't waiting as much and then did our turn when they were back at the hotel later.)

You'll find lots of other tips. You're going at a great time and crowds should be very manageable. You should be able to easily do everything you want in 5 days without killing yourself. You'll also have time to just take in stuff so don't skip some of the entertainment at Epcot, the shows at AK, etc. (My 6 year olds just got into Sorcerors of Magic Kingdom which they loved and was easy to do just while touring MK).

Hope some of this helps.

Thank you VERY much these are great tips! I highly appriciate it!

 

[Meandnevaeh]

Taking Touringplans.com into account, I believe they have a sound basis for their calculations and predictions. They base off actual empirical data of wait times with many, many data points, which to me is about as close as you can come to accurately analyzing how "crowded" a park is/was. It's certainly better to use that than to use anecdotal evidence like the posts on here. That's not a slam on anyone posting their thoughts or ideas for how they do it or how crowded they feel on certain days, it's just that those are single data points and are subject to multiple bias factors.

You could do a lot worse than following their crowd calendar. "Winging it" is something I would never, ever do.

I agree. They actually explain to you how their predictors are calculated, it's based on avg wait times for specific key rides, everyone's interpretation of crowd levels varies based on their own personal expectations. When I went in January using my research and Touring plans I had my own set of expectations, I did not feel overwhelmed by crowds, even though there were quite heavy amounts of people in MK in the Sat of my visit, but since I had a thorough plan and sat was not my only day at MK I was not hindered one bit by the crowds, I knew what to expect. And while it didn't feel overcrowded to me, there were plenty of people that had been there the same week and were posting on different FB groups of how crowded it was, and how it wasn't like past late Jan trips. I think with the different crowd calendars you actually have to look into what are they basing their numbers in, and how will those different aspects affect you and your expectations. And just because a day is in the green, or the best park for that particular day doesn't mean that the park will be empty

 

[scurvyfreedman]

I would suspect that the most important thing is to go during a lower overall traffic week. Whether that's the week before Thanksgiving, the first two weeks in December, January, the week after Labor Day, etc., it's going to give you the most bang for the buck because there will just be fewer people overall, whether they go to MK or AK or HS or EP. The distribution of people to a given park on a given day is less important than having lower overall crowds in general.

If you go during a higher crowd period, I would suspect that it's important to go to a park that doesn't have XMH, or go to the morning XMH and then hop as the park fills up later.

And, last is probably to beat the crowds by getting there at rope drop and planning your FP+ for when it gets crowded.