Too Many Hotels, Not Enough Parks

[rteetz]

Is there a problem with that?

No but not everyone can afford to do that

 

[disneysteve]

Seriously, on the 5th gate, you can't possibly see and do everything now on a 7-day, 6-night visit. We have gone for 2 weeks numerous times and still couldn't see and do everything. I don't think that's a reason not to add a 5th gate. I think it would work in Disney's favor and encourage those who can to stay an additional day or two or to encourage people to plan a return trip sooner rather than later.

 

[rteetz]

Seriously, on the 5th gate, you can't possibly see and do everything now on a 7-day, 6-night visit. We have gone for 2 weeks numerous times and still couldn't see and do everything. I don't think that's a reason not to add a 5th gate. I think it would work in Disney's favor and encourage those who can to stay an additional day or two or to encourage people to plan a return trip sooner rather than later.

And that’s where I think it would hurt. People only have so much time they can spend in Florida. Add a 5th gate and now you are taking away attendance from the other four parks. Instead of spending two days at MK people are only spending one, or instead of a full day at Epcot it’s only a half day.

Disney loves the once in a lifetime traveler as they often spend the most on the extras. So return trips aren’t always feasible either. For many of us we go often and have APs. It’s easy to return often but you have to think in terms of the masses not just the Disney fans.

 

[Helvetica]

People don’t have enough time for vacation days though. Magic Kingdom is a multi day park as well. Many spend 2-3 days there alone. Add in if people want to do water parks, and they’d have to spend two weeks on property to get what they want done.

You know what that means? 14 Day Passes for Americans! I was there for 12 days and I still wasn't able to do everything. Making people want to come back for more is to their benefit.

I think something has to happen just due to demographics. Either a new park at Disney World or a Mid-American Resort. It's been 20 years since Animal Kingdom and I personally think they're going to hit capacity around the 50th. Even if they were to announce a new park in 2021, it won't be ready until 2025 or later. By 2035, the USA will have 100 million more people than it did when Animal Kingdom opened in 1998.

If it were up to me, I'd announce DisneySea at the 50th with a focus on marine life conservation (take that SeaWorld) to be built to the east of Animal Kingdom and share existing infrastructure like the parking lot and bus system. You could also connect the water park to the new park by way of a walkway and connect the convention center at Coronado Springs. They seem to like to connect things.

If nothing else, hopefully Iger's hatred of Universal makes him build something out of spite whenever Universal announces their third gate.

Is it needed today? Probably not, but the question is what is going to be their needs going into the 60th and beyond. Maybe you're right and it's not needed. I don't know, but I do wonder how many people these parks can actually take.

 

[rteetz]

You know what that means? 14 Day Passes for Americans! I was there for 12 days and I still wasn't able to do everything. Making people want to come back for more is to their benefit.

I think something has to happen just due to demographics. Either a new park at Disney World or a Mid-American Resort. It's been 20 years since Animal Kingdom and I personally think they're going to hit capacity around the 50th. Even if they were to announce a new park in 2021, it won't be ready until 2025 or later. By 2035, the USA will have 100 million more people than it did when Animal Kingdom opened in 1998.

If it were up to me, I'd announce DisneySea at the 50th with a focus on marine life conservation (take that SeaWorld) to be built to the east of Animal Kingdom and share existing infrastructure like the parking lot and bus system. You could also connect the water park to the new park by way of a walkway and connect the convention center at Coronado Springs. They seem to like to connect things.

If nothing else, hopefully Iger's hatred of Universal makes him build something out of spite whenever Universal announces their third gate.

Is it needed today? Probably not, but the question is what is going to be their needs going into the 60th and beyond. Maybe you're right and it's not needed. I don't know, but I do wonder how many people these parks can actually take.

A fifth gate is going to be a 3+ billion dollar investment into WDW. I’d much rather see them spend that on adding capacity to all four existing parks as they all need it.

You also have to think of the economy. Yes you may think crowds are only going to keep going up but if we get hit with another major recession or depression attendance and spending is going to take a major hit.

 

[Helvetica]

A fifth gate is going to be a 3+ billion dollar investment into WDW. I’d much rather see them spend that on adding capacity to all four existing parks as they all need it.

You also have to think of the economy. Yes you may think crowds are only going to keep going up but if we get hit with another major recession or depression attendance and spending is going to take a major hit.

I certainly understand the risks, but I personally think that terrorism is a bigger risk factor than the economy. At some point focusing on the existing parks is going to have diminishing returns while a new park opens them up to greater growth potential over a longer period of time. I guess the question is whether or not Disney wants to assume the greater risk for the potential of a greater reward or if they're content with smaller gains.

I hope they go for it, but I understand why they wouldn't.

 

[OKW Lover]

People only have so much time they can spend in Florida. Add a 5th gate and now you are taking away attendance from the other four parks.

It would only make sense if that 5th gate took attendance away from Universal/Seaworld

 

[Cornish Lad]

We are staying for 3 weeks this year with multiple days scheduled for each of the four parks - not doing the water parks at all - and I am sure that there will still be things that we miss. I do like the idea of a water based park akin to Sea World being built on Disney property - would certainly get my vote! We did take a couple of days to go to Universal on our last vacation but have decided that, this time, we will stay on Disney property for the whole vacation with rest days at the hotel pool and DS. We do not bother with a hire car and just use Disney transport to get around. As I said a fifth gate as described above would be welcomed but it would certainly require extended or multiple breaks to see all that Disney would be offering.

 

[disneysteve]

By 2035, the USA will have 100 million more people than it did when Animal Kingdom opened in 1998.

This is a really good point. One big reason whey more people are going to Disney is the simple fact that there are more people, both domestically and worldwide.

In 1971 when WDW opened, the US population was 207.7 million. Today it is 325.7 million.
In 1971, the global population was 3.7 billion. Today it is 7.6 billion.

You also have to think of the economy. Yes you may think crowds are only going to keep going up but if we get hit with another major recession or depression attendance and spending is going to take a major hit.

There will be a recession. I guarantee it. But whenever that happens, it will only be a short-term issue, just like every other recession in history. Building a new park is a long-term investment. Once the recession ends, travel and tourism recovers.

 

[rteetz]

There will be a recession. I guarantee it. But whenever that happens, it will only be a short-term issue, just like every other recession in history. Building a new park is a long-term investment. Once the recession ends, travel and tourism recovers.

That is true but it does stop and change plans. Look at the recession post 9/11. Disney stopped spending and plans were halted for many projects. This latest recession also hindered some in parks around the globe. Lets say Disney announces a new park, then a recession hits, I would expect attractions or experiences from that park to be cut or slimmed down in order to save on costs.

 

[disneysteve]

That is true but it does stop and change plans. Look at the recession post 9/11. Disney stopped spending and plans were halted for many projects. This latest recession also hindered some in parks around the globe. Lets say Disney announces a new park, then a recession hits, I would expect attractions or experiences from that park to be cut or slimmed down in order to save on costs.

Absolutely. I agree completely. The timing of the recession can definitely impact plans.

 

[Boski]

The one thing they could implement immediately that would help the crowded park issue and be way cheaper than opening a 5th gate is to extend operating hours and run the attractions at full capacity.

 

[rteetz]

The one thing they could implement immediately that would help the crowded park issue and be way cheaper than opening a 5th gate is to extend operating hours and run the attractions at full capacity.

Even in doing that a park like MK still needs more overall capacity.

 

[hertamaniac]

If I've done my back-of-the-envelope calculation correctly, the cost of a MK/WDW ticket ($3.50 plus 10 attractions @ .90/each - for example's sake as I don't think each attraction was .90 nor were there 10 attractions), in 1971 was roughly .12% of the median family income ($10,290) . Using 2016 stats ($57,617), the same MK/WDW ticket ($110) is roughly .19% of the median family income. I know this is a single data point, but I interpret this that the cost for the family to visit WDW is nearly double even adjusted and accounting for inflation.

So, as the population grows and the theme parks continue to set attendance records, I see pricing as a primary driver to justify a 5th gate.

 

[Helvetica]

The one thing they could implement immediately that would help the crowded park issue and be way cheaper than opening a 5th gate is to extend operating hours and run the attractions at full capacity.

I guess they have done 24 hour events in the past... It would be kind of interesting if they decide to just not to close certain parks on certain days with the opening of Galaxy's Edge and the 50th Anniversary.

Tomorrow the Magic Kingdom is going to be open from 8 am - 1 am, so what's a few more hours.

 

[Boski]

Even in doing that a park like MK still needs more overall capacity.

I don't necessarily disagree but I think what they are doing now is the way to go. The reason MK is so crazy is because its got all the attractions. DHS has been half a park for a while now which hasn't helped. I think that the improvements made to AK have really shown that if they give some love to the other parks it will help pull people away from MK. We'll see what TSL does this weekend and can only imagine Galaxy's Edge really making DHS a draw for the crowds.

 

[CampbellzSoup]

Thes arguments against a 5th gate are paper thin and the same people will be celebrating when it finally is announced. You’ll never be able to do it all hence the reason to come back multiple times.

 

[rteetz]

Thes arguments against a 5th gate are paper thin and the same people will be celebrating when it finally is announced. You’ll never be able to do it all hence the reason to come back multiple times.

How are they paper thin?

Not everyone has more than a week and not everyone can come back.

 

[rteetz]

I don't necessarily disagree but I think what they are doing now is the way to go. The reason MK is so crazy is because its got all the attractions. DHS has been half a park for a while now which hasn't helped. I think that the improvements made to AK have really shown that if they give some love to the other parks it will help pull people away from MK. We'll see what TSL does this weekend and can only imagine Galaxy's Edge really making DHS a draw for the crowds.

MK needs high capacity additions. The theater would have been great at taking in people. Tron isn’t a high capacity attraction.

 

[disneysteve]

Not everyone has more than a week and not everyone can come back.

So? You can't see everything in a week now. What difference does it make if there's one more thing (a 5th park) that you can't see in that week? And there's no reason that you couldn't squeeze in at least some time in all 5 parks during a one-week visit. Yes, it will cannibalize time from something else but that's normal. I'm sure since Pandora opened people are spending more time in AK and less time somewhere else. And once Galaxy's Edge opens people will spend more time in DHS and less time somewhere else. If a 5th park opened, people would spend more time there and less time doing other things.

I wonder what percentage of 1st-time visitors never come back for the rest of their lives.