44 Days to Go (The cold never bothered me anyway!)
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Date - Day - Scheduled Workout (Intervals within desired pace, Strength +/- 5 sec, everything else +/- 10 sec)
11/16/16 - W - OFF
11/17/16 - R - 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile + 8 miles @ 7:33 min/mile + 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile (5/8)
11/18/16 - F - 6 miles @ 9:01 or slower min/mile (5/6)
11/19/16 - Sat - 10 miles @ 8:22 or slower min/mile (10/10)
11/20/16 - Sun - 15 miles @ 8:13 min/mile (8/15)
11/21/16 - M - 6 miles @ 9:01 or slower min/mile (5/6)
11/22/16 - T - 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile + 2 x 3 mile @ 7:05 min/mile w/ 1 mile RI + 2 miles @ 9:47 min/mile (2/2)
Total mileage = 60 miles
Number of intervals within pace = 35/47 (74%)
Alright, now that the step back week is over, we're back to training.
I started off on Thursday with a warmish 64 degree run. The first two splits were too slow (7:57 and 8:04), but the remaining 6 were well within desired range with an average of 7:29 (7:21-7:38). Overall happy with how the run went. The average heart rate of the final 6 miles was 152. My normal HR for a marathon is 152, so again I think we're barking up the right tree.
And then Friday came.... The wind was 35 mph sustained and 50 (?!?!?!?!??!??!?!?!) mph gusts. I was just laughing at points during the run. The first truly cold run which it's back to trying to figure out what to wear in each temperature range. I'm finding as the years go by I become less and less tolerant to the cold. But regardless, I decided to give it a go. I decided to run blind, because let's be honest what's the purpose of pushing hard to hit paces on a day like this. In fact, this is a good representation of why transitioning to an effort based model of training is ideal. The conditions weren't good. The goal was easy. So just run easy regardless of what the pace is. At times that may be a tad too fast, and at other times too slow. But if the effort stays the same, then the benefits will likely as well. Again effort x time = miles. That's just what happened on this run:
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My effort was consistent, but the pace sure doesn't seem like it. It goes all over the place and that's largely in part due to the 50mph winds. Funny enough I almost nailed my goal pace (9:11) exactly as an average (9:12) in the wind and blind. For comparison, this is the Friday prior:
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Regardless, I was able to finish a 6 mile run in some ridiculous wind.
Saturday was still windy (not as bad at 30mph gusts) but the wind chill dropped to 19. So hello cold morning! I stuck with EB effort but because of the cold and wind the pace was a tad slow. No matter it still felt good.
Sunday was a long run of 15 miles.
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The goal pace was 8:13 and for the most part I hit it. I like to look at every 3rd mile starting with the 4th since I do a 3 mile loop. Thus 4=7=10=13, and 5=8=11=14, and 6=9=12. When you look at this pattern you can see the consistency of the run. For instance 4,7,10,13 is 8:11, 8:07, 8:05, 7:58. Ideally, you would see these sets drop as this would be a sign that I am getting stronger throughout the run. Now compare that with the HR 140, 141, 141, 141. So the pace quickened ever so slightly and the HR ever so slightly followed suit. The overall average HR was 138 for every mile excluding mile 1. Using the same metric two weeks ago for the 13 mile run the HR was a 145. Nice to see a 7 bpm drop in 2 weeks time with little difference in pace (8:01 vs 8:02). Just another sign that I'm still improving. Also, notice that there is no heart rate drift. A sign that the workout was on point and cardiovascularly I am very strong.
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Monday was another easy run with nothing to note.
Tuesday was the peak of the strength sequence. I ran 2 x 3 miles at a 7:05 min/mile. The times were 21:16 and 21:09 (with a goal of 21:15). So pretty spot on. Another thing I look for in interval workouts is the HR before, during, and after the intervals. Take notice that the "resting" HR is nearly the same at the beginning, between the intervals, and after the intervals. Another sign of a strong workout that wasn't too much for my heart to handle.
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Time to update the HR stats:
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So the chart shows the HR data from Jan 2015-Apr 2015 (Blue) and June 2015-Sep 2015 (red). The black diamond represents data from 10/31 to 11/6 (or roughly 2 weeks ago). The orange line is the line of best fit (logarithmic). The yellow squares represent 11/7 to 11/22 (or "present") with matching black line. This shows you the improvement in just two short weeks time. It also shows in the HR predicted race times:
10/31-11/6
Mile - 5:54
5k - 20:14
10k - 42:29
HM - 1:33:02
M - 3:20:45
11/7-11/22
Mile - 5:42
5k - 19:29
10k - 40:49
HM - 1:29:16
M - 3:12:07
So in two short weeks, my HR prediction calculator has moved my marathon time from 3:20 to 3:12. A predicted 8 min improvement. I venture to guess that this improvement will start to slow and that I won't see nearly the dramatic jump in another two weeks of training. That far off outlier in the yellow boxes at 8:02 and 138 is Sunday's long run. So if the trend continues you can already see the line is starting to shift again. Nonetheless, it is an interesting improvement to monitor.
Not much time left to get better before Dopey, but I'll admit I'm happy with the progress thus far. Who knows, maybe a quadruple PR is coming at 5k, 10k, HM, and M. Only time will tell. One step at a time.
Oh and BTW...
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It does bother me....