To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[Ariel484]

69 days, 15 hours, and 35 minutes until pitchers and catchers report....

(not that I'm counting)

Yesssss

 

[AbbyJaws2003]

This Minnesotan is going to stay out of this convo......

 

[dmross]

I'm so embarrassed to admit how little I know about sportsball, unless it's Duke winning at basketball or the USC Gamecocks losing in football. I was raised on golf and nascar, both of which lull me to sleep nicely on weekend afternoons. But I did know about the parade, @Ariel484, and that seems a valid celebration for that poor team. But I'm still not sure whether to root for them to be the best at being worst? Seems cruel...

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Since we're talking about sports.... anyone else SO excited about Nebraska's new coach?? Anyone? (*crickets*) OK, so just me and the rest of the state.

 

[canglim52]

Well the Miami fans are apathetic to their team most of the time. And if it's like the last time we played them, we just need the temps to dip below 60 and they'll all run off scared of the "cold". I'm still hopeful the Badger fans will take over the stadium.

I’d be very surprised if there is a big turn out for Miami, our fans only care if we can win a national championship... anything less they stop coming :-/

 

[jennamfeo]

69 days, 15 hours, and 35 minutes until pitchers and catchers report....

(not that I'm counting)

That doesn't seem that far away! Thankfully!

 

[Ariel484]

I'm so embarrassed to admit how little I know about sportsball, unless it's Duke winning at basketball or the USC Gamecocks losing in football. I was raised on golf and nascar, both of which lull me to sleep nicely on weekend afternoons. But I did know about the parade, @Ariel484, and that seems a valid celebration for that poor team. But I'm still not sure whether to root for them to be the best at being worst? Seems cruel...

I don't know what to think of it. I guess it's good that people are keeping a sense of humor about it? Mostly I just think the Browns need to clean house from top to bottom (except for Joe Thomas!) and start over...

 

[DopeyBadger]

Wow, that escalated quickly. Some serious sports woes being shared here.

Duke winning at basketball

...Still not over this one...

Since we're talking about sports.... anyone else SO excited about Nebraska's new coach?? Anyone? (*crickets*) OK, so just me and the rest of the state.

I am. I think he'll do much better than Riley. I thought that was a terrible hire. I'll be interested to see if he tries to bring the Oregon spread to UNL or if he adapts his scheme to the Midwest. As long as you guys get better but stay in 2nd, I'm fine with that...

except for Joe Thomas!

 

[kski907]

Born and raised in Buffalo true Bills fan here and not afraid to admit it. I was wondering Mr. DopeyBadger if you could point me in the direction of the list you once posted on what you pack for marathon weekend. We have an upcoming trip to the main land so can shop for items possibly necessary that can't be found locally. Thanks

 

[rteetz]

Wow, that escalated quickly. Some serious sports woes being shared here.



...Still not over this one...

I am. I think he'll do much better than Riley. I thought that was a terrible hire. I'll be interested to see if he tries to bring the Oregon spread to UNL or if he adapts his scheme to the Midwest. As long as you guys get better but stay in 2nd, I'm fine with that...

Why'd you have to bring the national championship up!

 

[Ariel484]

Really...he's too good for the Browns. It would be kinder to just set him free at this point!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Born and raised in Buffalo true Bills fan here and not afraid to admit it. I was wondering Mr. DopeyBadger if you could point me in the direction of the list you once posted on what you pack for marathon weekend. We have an upcoming trip to the main land so can shop for items possibly necessary that can't be found locally. Thanks

Why'd you have to bring the national championship up!

Before the game...

Really...he's too good for the Browns. It would be kinder to just set him free at this point!

Sounded like he was considering retirement. Then the Browns drove a dump-truck of money to his house. We'll see. Impressive he was able to hit 10,000 consecutive offensive snaps with the Browns. Think of that. Never left the field for any reason what-so-ever for 10,000 straight plays. Amazing!

 

[Ariel484]

Sounded like he was considering retirement. Then the Browns drove a dump-truck of money to his house. We'll see. Impressive he was able to hit 10,000 consecutive offensive snaps with the Browns. Think of that. Never left the field for any reason what-so-ever for 10,000 straight plays. Amazing!

Seriously! It's like people who have run every WDW Marathon...never injured?? Never sick? It's crazy. And then he goes and tears his triceps! Ouch.

He does little weather reports before each Browns game and seems very natural and comfortable in front of the camera, so I could see him going into an analyst/commentator position at some point whenever he does decide to retire.

 

[DopeyBadger]

He does little weather reports before each Browns game and seems very natural and comfortable in front of the camera, so I could see him going into an analyst/commentator position at some point whenever he does decide to retire.

O-Line coach at UW with fishing as a hobby... At least that's what we dream of here in cheese country.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Re-visitng HRvPace

While the summer was going on and I was knee deep in Lakefront 2017 training, I started to focus more on the M Tempo as a predictor for performance rather than HRvPace. I definitely think there's a time and place for both. So since I've been seeing steady improvements in Dopey 2018 training, I decided to dust off the ole' Excel sheet and see where the HR data fell.

For those new to this concept:

Got a Heart Rate Monitor? Check out my method of using the data to create your own personal race predicting calculator and to see your progress over time



X-axis = Pace
Y-axis = HR average for set pace

I tend to use steady state paces of no less than 1 mile. So a 4x800m workout isn't a good test. If I do a 2 mile WU + 7 mile Tempo, I break that into two data points (WU and Tempo) rather than the average. If I have any erroneous data, then I throw it out. I use two week blocks of training because I've found that's most representative of current fitness.

The blue line is historical data from pre-Hansons days. I'd run 1000s of miles at that point, but wasn't necessarily training correctly (slower miles, more miles spread over different days, more balance, etc.). The Yellow Boxes/Black Line represents my peak in April/May 2017 during Daniels Training. During that period of time was the best HRvPace data I had ever collected. The red line and red triangles is the last two weeks of training (or current fitness).

The data set:



So, since the black line and red line virtually overlap, it tells me that my HRvPace data is the best it's ever been (or tied with). Maybe a smidgen worse but not by much. This jives with a matching VO2max between that two week block and now (59). Since Garmin does something similar to this (without showing the data), then it's not terribly surprising they are the same.

I then put a logarithmic line of best fit and plug in historical race HRs to get a personal predictor. Sometimes the predictor is highly accurate (2015 Lakefront Marathon predicted within 2 min of actual time) and other times it's way off (5k/10ks of 2017 Daniels training). But all that says is there is simply more to running than just HRvPace (not surprising). But it gives me more of a max, then a guess.

I place historical HRs into the race predictor to get the following:



Mile HR = 177
5k HR = 162
10k HR = 158
HM HR = 156
M HR = 152
Dopey HR = 149

One reason the Daniels original predictions were off was because I might have needed more historical 5k/10k data. I've since adjusted those numbers. But even during the "Peak" it would have predicted a 18:24 5k when I ran a 19:29 5k. So still not the greatest predictor there. I added a "fatigue" adjustment to the Dopey HR of 149 to get a final prediction of 3:19:02 (or roughly 10% slower). This is in line with where I think I'll end up at the current moment (weather dependent) or somewhere around 3:14-3:30.

The takeaway message to me. I'm near peak physical fitness at the moment using HRvPace as a barometer and I don't think the training results recently would disagree. It also tells me that under the perfect conditions (flat course, 30s, night race, etc.) I could maybe maximally run a 2:52-2:53 marathon. Exciting times! Only 30 days until Dopey!

 

[Sleepless Knight]

Maybe you can find some comfort in knowing the Bears lost to a 1-9 49'ers team with a thrilling score of 15-14.

I'm a 49ers fan. It gets worse. Just look at what happened to the 49ers after the current owners took over the team in the late 1990s.

It could always be worse. You could be a Chiefs fan.

I've lost count of how many times I watched Alex Smith almost lead the 49ers to victory.

 

[canglim52]

Re-visitng HRvPace

While the summer was going on and I was knee deep in Lakefront 2017 training, I started to focus more on the M Tempo as a predictor for performance rather than HRvPace. I definitely think there's a time and place for both. So since I've been seeing steady improvements in Dopey 2018 training, I decided to dust off the ole' Excel sheet and see where the HR data fell.

For those new to this concept:

Got a Heart Rate Monitor? Check out my method of using the data to create your own personal race predicting calculator and to see your progress over time

View attachment 287058

X-axis = Pace
Y-axis = HR average for set pace

I tend to use steady state paces of no less than 1 mile. So a 4x800m workout isn't a good test. If I do a 2 mile WU + 7 mile Tempo, I break that into two data points (WU and Tempo) rather than the average. If I have any erroneous data, then I throw it out. I use two week blocks of training because I've found that's most representative of current fitness.

The blue line is historical data from pre-Hansons days. I'd run 1000s of miles at that point, but wasn't necessarily training correctly (slower miles, more miles spread over different days, more balance, etc.). The Yellow Boxes/Black Line represents my peak in April/May 2017 during Daniels Training. During that period of time was the best HRvPace data I had ever collected. The red line and red triangles is the last two weeks of training (or current fitness).

The data set:

View attachment 287059

So, since the black line and red line virtually overlap, it tells me that my HRvPace data is the best it's ever been (or tied with). Maybe a smidgen worse but not by much. This jives with a matching VO2max between that two week block and now (59). Since Garmin does something similar to this (without showing the data), then it's not terribly surprising they are the same.

I then put a logarithmic line of best fit and plug in historical race HRs to get a personal predictor. Sometimes the predictor is highly accurate (2015 Lakefront Marathon predicted within 2 min of actual time) and other times it's way off (5k/10ks of 2017 Daniels training). But all that says is there is simply more to running than just HRvPace (not surprising). But it gives me more of a max, then a guess.

I place historical HRs into the race predictor to get the following:

View attachment 287070

Mile HR = 177
5k HR = 162
10k HR = 158
HM HR = 156
M HR = 152
Dopey HR = 149

One reason the Daniels original predictions were off was because I might have needed more historical 5k/10k data. I've since adjusted those numbers. But even during the "Peak" it would have predicted a 18:24 5k when I ran a 19:29 5k. So still not the greatest predictor there. I added a "fatigue" adjustment to the Dopey HR of 149 to get a final prediction of 3:19:02 (or roughly 10% slower). This is in line with where I think I'll end up at the current moment (weather dependent) or somewhere around 3:14-3:30.

The takeaway message to me. I'm near peak physical fitness at the moment using HRvPace as a barometer and I don't think the training results recently would disagree. It also tells me that under the perfect conditions (flat course, 30s, night race, etc.) I could maybe maximally run a 2:52-2:53 marathon. Exciting times! Only 30 days until Dopey!

Good write up, I like seeing how you normalize your data! Do you typically just collect, and then go back? Or are you always analyzing?

 

[evre13]

Your training log and attention to detail continues to impress, as always; I really need to do better at using my HRM (I left my Garmin in AL after Thanksgiving and I got nervous about it going in the mail), so maybe that's a goal for 2018!

Also, love the Sportsball diversion. As an Alabama fan, this weekend was too stressful when we didn't even have a game! I'm so sorry that the B10 didn't end the way you wanted, but I'm also selfishly pleased to be in the Playoffs. At least OSU didn't make it. People may hate Alabama, but I have to think they hate OSU more.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Good write up, I like seeing how you normalize your data!

Thanks! What do you mean by normalizing?

Do you typically just collect, and then go back? Or are you always analyzing?

It depends. In most instances, I'm analyzing all of the data in the moment. There are occasions where I walk away from a method for a bit of time so that it doesn't consume me. But I'm very data centric and always looking for trends to give me an edge.

Your training log and attention to detail continues to impress, as always;

Thanks!

I really need to do better at using my HRM (I left my Garmin in AL after Thanksgiving and I got nervous about it going in the mail), so maybe that's a goal for 2018!

It's a very useful tool.

Also, love the Sportsball diversion. As an Alabama fan, this weekend was too stressful when we didn't even have a game! I'm so sorry that the B10 didn't end the way you wanted, but I'm also selfishly pleased to be in the Playoffs. At least OSU didn't make it. People may hate Alabama, but I have to think they hate OSU more.

Hmph... Well, I'm happy to help by allowing Alabama a way into the playoffs... again... for every year the playoffs have existed... Some day maybe WI will be in the position to make it again. I'm indifferent on Ohio State not making it. It was definitely an interesting few weeks of CFP rankings.

 

[FFigawi]

Hey @DopeyBadger (and @rteetz, too), I'm heading to Milwaukee tomorrow. Got any snow yet?