And people should be put on notice - the changes come at a financial cost - if
DVC is changing the way you do Disney, its likely you are spending more than you would just renting points or staying in a regular hotel room. Which is fine, but since so many people go into it looking at it as a money saver, they should be aware that its far more frequently a value adder - you spend more, but generally gain a different experience.
Have to agree, it is a rare case that buying something expensive saves money. That's like saying today at Kohls I saved $50! Well how much did you spend? $200. You are almost certain to come out ahead by not buying DVC. When you consider that $18,000 invested in something profitable should make you $900-$1800 in interest per year -- add dues, you're in the hole $2-$3,000 per year, plus your initial outlay.
Should really look at DVC as prepaying for vacations. We bought in because we love going to Disney World, not because it's saving us cash. It gives us more options to book and stay.
Think about it this way. If DVC was actually a way to spend LESS, then why would Disney push it to every guest? They want less revenue? It's a big profit-maker for Disney, and that means it costs the average guest more than they would otherwise spend if they didn't buy in. You will spend more in your lifetime as a DVC owner than not. But you will take more trips to Florida as well.
Regarding your dilemma, here's my thoughts...
AKV: pros- animals (kids); cons- high dues, far from everything, kids grow up, since we invested in the higher dues we may feel obligated to stay here every trip
Right there, you kill this one for me. The first rule of real estate is still location, location, location. I'm not a fan of the AK because I wouldn't want to buy a property to be close to the WDW parks... and then not be close to them.
SSR: pros- we like DS, low price/dues, we anticipate wanting to stay at different resorts so we wouldn't feel like we invested so much that we have to stay here if we can get a room elsewhere; cons- far from parks
This is a good one. Great location in walking distance to DS.
BCV: pros- close to Epcot, pool sounds amazing (kids); cons- shorter contract (impacting resale if we sell after 10/15 years), pricier and might make us feel like we HAVE to stay here because it's what we paid for (even though we would most likely want to try out different resorts).
Another good one, walking distance to EC/HS. But yes, that short contract would steer me away. Not because of selling in 10/15 years cuz I think we'll use it for the full term. But because you just get fewer years than buying at other places, for around the same price.
This seems to come down to whether you prefer the Deluxe or Moderate. And to decide that, you just have to stay in them. I would not have a hard time deciding between these two, because we love the Deluxes. Your comparison for staying on-site is Bonnet Creek, which isn't even on-site. So I would stay in them a few times. Or, just buy in and then stay in them. It's not like you'll be unhappy w BCV. So I'd pick BCV between the 3. Higher cost, but prime location, deluxe amenities, walking distance to parks.