Times are hard at Disney?

[BWV Dreamin]

The problem in the US does not lie solely with the credit crunch. It's much bigger than that. If we want to play the blame game, then look at all unions, minimum wage,
People are going to ask why the unions and minimum wage. Glad you asked. Unions have forced wages to sky rocket. This results in greater wages across the board to keep up with an ever expanding cost of living. Everything from good and services to taxes that pay for teachers salaries. In the case of factory unions like GM, Ford and Chrysler, they have moved factories to Mexico and Canada where it's cheaper to operate. Amazing that the thriving auto makers in the US, Toyota and Honda, don't have unions in their factories.

We buy many of the good that were once produced in the the US from other countries today. It amazes me that they can produce and ship those products from Asia and still make a profit greater than what could be made here in the US.

Everytime congress increases minimum wage in the US, the popluation pays a penality. While congress tries to tell you that they are elevating the poor. They are not. The result of an increase in minimum wage results in increases in costs of goods for places that pay minimum wage. This also translates in a decrease in wages for those making over minimum wage. Their pay will buy less as a result. If minimum wage is 5 per hour and someone is making 10 per hour. With a raise of just .50 cents per hour, the person making 10 per hour is not going to see a raise. Not only is that person not going to see a raise, but the goods and services that he or she buys is going to go up slighly. Thus their buying power is less.

Just my opinion here, but this is a stretch. Unions, minimum wage, those people making minimum wage, have nothing to do with this crisis. I don't see the correlation between foriegn goods and mortgages. Now minimum wage earners may have been trying to get these loans, however they are not the cause of the crisis. Not buying this analogy at all.

 

[boettj]

Just my opinion here, but this is a stretch. Unions, minimum wage, those people making minimum wage, have nothing to do with this crisis. I don't see the correlation between foriegn goods and mortgages. Now minimum wage earners may have been trying to get these loans, however they are not the cause of the crisis. Not buying this analogy at all.

It's not the people making minimum wage, but congress pushing up minimum wage. This creates a false American Dream. The issue is not solely mortgages. If you think this countries issues lie solely with the mortgage issue then you are solely mistaken. Why do you think the Democrats have put 300 million in the bailout bill for the automakers in the US? This crisis is the result of a culmination of an overall broken system.

If and when we sink into a depression (with or without a bailout mind you), then what does this country have to fall back on to help pull us out? In the 30's it was the industrial military complex that ultimately pulled this country out of Depression. We do not have the factories in this country today to do that. What little we do have, we not be enough. Think about the big picture. Not just the mortgage issue. You have to look past and beyond that. Look to the eventual crash, and then how we recover from it. To recover, we need to understand the full scope of how we got her. To say our problems were only due to the mortgage industry is near sighted.

 

[DisFlan]

Why do you think the Democrats have put 300 million in the bailout bill for the automakers in the US? This crisis is the result of a culmination of an overall broken system.

The automakers already got $25 billion last week from Congress. $300 million more would be chump change.

Personally, I think the economy is in for a really rough year and maybe two. I remember the '70s - years of wage and price freezes, gas shortages, outlandishly high interest rates, paltry stimulus payments that did no good and an economic feeling of malaise and doom over the whole country. And then we went into the "awful '80s" with even worse interest rates and enormous job cuts and layoffs. I'm hoping what's coming won't be as bad, but I'm afraid it will be - or worse. We have less now to fall back on to pull us out. I'm thanking God right now that our house is paid for.

And I'm definitely wondering, when consumers have maxxed out or lost credit (or jobs), how all this will hit Disney - my son and his wife both work for Disney.

DisFlan

 

[eliza61]

JMO but I think people need to take responsiblity for themselves. If taking out a loan is squeezing your budget to tightly, then don't take out the loan. People buying what they can't afford is a large part of what has gotten the US into this mess.

Agree ABSOLUTELY!
Don't spend what you don't have!! - and don't let your mind be controlled by media and have's and have nots!!

That being said! and i will go on record and quote:

"I AM A WORK IN PROGRESS!" - learning!!!

Agree ! AND in addition to being realistic about your personal financial abilities what's with financial institutions lending to folks amounts of $ that even under the best of circumstances they'd have difficulty meeting payments??

Remember back in the day when in order to qualify & prove you could pay back a loan, mortgage, etc. there was an extremely unbendable set of criteria a borrower had to meet ?

Unfortunatley guys (and gals) this is not the mentality of average John P. Public. The last 20-25 years we have, as a society seen a big push from "savers" to " spenders". We use to teach our children to save, then some thing happen around the early 70's where the credit floodgates opened up and we became giant consumers.

Even if people can't afford stuff that doesn't stop them from purchasing, People were encouraged to spend their stimulus check. Wasn't there a sound bite where the president specifically says "take your kids to disney".
Our society believes that they should have a 4000 sq ft home, vacations to disney, 2 cars, Iphones & Ipods.

Disney will make financing easier and even if they can't afford a timeshare people will buy them because the mentality is " I deserve a vacation" or "you never know what will happen tomorrow" or my personal favorite "your kids are only little once"

 

[WDWcanuck]

I'm just going to chime in here because I'm looking to get a better understanding of the financial crisis in the US right now.

Up in Canada, we seem to be riding things out for the most part. We're in an election season as well. Rightfully so, the US economy is playing a major part in our political discussions. Currently, the fear is that Canada will start to see the same economic issues. I know that the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) fell about 500 points the other day off the no vote for the $700 billion bailout in the States.

My understanding initially was that the crisis began with subprime mortgages. Am I wrong to assume this? Is there more, such as people defaulting on other loans? Any other players?

I'd like to get a better idea of the cause/effect. Thanks so much.

 

[DisFlan]

Disney will make financing easier and even if they can't afford a timeshare people will buy them because the mentality is " I deserve a vacation" or "you never know what will happen tomorrow" or my personal favorite "your kids are only little once"

Don't forget the ever popular "We're making memories for our kids". You're right - they're all bad excuses for spending more than you should.

DisFlan

 

[ransom]

We use to teach our children to save, then some thing happen around the early 70's where the credit floodgates opened up and we became giant consumers.

My theory is this...

The 70s is when a few things happened:

1) Incomes started not keeping up with inflation.
2) Inflation was high, the stock market was stagnant, and savings accounts had low interest. That actually presents an economic incentive to spend rather than save (since money saved today will be worth less tomorrow in that environment). That bad economic environment went on for so long, that people got used to spending everything they had, and never did go back to saving.

 

[cogero]

okay here are a few things that bother me on this thread.

My DH is a union employee (He is in Law enforcement and just received the first decent contract in years before that his raises averaged to approximately 1.2% per year, so it isn't all unions.

Part of the problem in this country is the entitlement factor. We are not entitled to own homes and we are not all entitled to college education sorry but that is a fact.

I want to know if I can send the gov't my mortgage to pay. I am sorry but I am against bailing out mortgages for people who did not have the income to get these mortgages. The government should be going after the banks for this.

We don't own stock so this whole Wall Street problem does not effect my family much.

Also I wouldn't believe all I was hearing on the news because I heard something that the manufacturing sector is going up in this country for the first time in years.

Unfortunately I don't believe either candidate for president is qualified or has any ideas of how to get us out of this mess.

That being said we are able to afford to go to Disney next year and our DVC is paid for.

This is just my opinion for what little it is worth.

 

[hellerjw]

The worst part is that there is no easy fix.

The thing individuals should be doing right now (shoring up savings, paying down debt, etc) is bad for the economy as a whole (reduced consumer spending, tangible goods production slows, etc) and further drags down hiring/spending by businesses.

Why do you think the government wanted everyone to go out and spend those stimulus checks? Because simply putting them in savings or paying down existing debt wouldn't provide a stimulus for all those industries that rely on rampent consumer spending (retail, hospitality, etc).

The reason The Great Depression was so bad is that lending/financing of any kind from any source (there were far fewer sources back then) dried up completely and individuals and businesses couldn't get loans for anything. It took WWII to generate a new market (military spending) that finally opened up the flood of government money into the system. Whether the current proposal to flood the market with $700 billion in loans will provide the same fix is yet to be seen.

Unfortunately, I think we will all be forced to be much more conservative with our own money and realize the days of instant credit and frivolous spending are over. Its all about priorities and we have all gotten too accustomed to the "I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" mentality.

 

[eliza61]

My understanding initially was that the crisis began with subprime mortgages. Am I wrong to assume this? Is there more, such as people defaulting on other loans? Any other players?

I'd like to get a better idea of the cause/effect. Thanks so much.

There are a number of culprits out there so its a little difficult. Basically subprime mortgages were probably the bottom layer of a house of cards but they were by no means the only factor. Another problem is that for a long time housing prices were artificially inflated. Lot's of banks took all these inflated mortgages, bundled them up together and used them as investments. Now that the housing prices are crashing those investments are worth zippo

.


We don't own stock so this whole Wall Street problem does not effect my family much.

.

Unfortunately Cogero, it will affect you. You say your husband is a union employee, civil service worker? Where do you think his pension is located? Most pensions are tied into the stock market. Also do you have a savings account? If this bailout doesn't go through inflation will go through the roof. If you're savings only gets 2.5% interest but your cost of living goes up 6% you lose money... I can tell you those raises at 1.2% ain't gonna cut it. If farmers can't get loans for feed, guess what happens to the price of food.

P.S. I grew up in Hollis Queens, glad to see another dvc'er from the old neighborhood LOL.

The sad reality of this country's economic is that in order for it to work sufficiently there has to be credit.

 

[boettj]

Don't forget the ever popular "We're making memories for our kids". You're right - they're all bad excuses for spending more than you should.

DisFlan

This is a great point. People need to get back to living within their means as well as savings. The government needs to support savings initiatives.



Thanks

 

[rantnnravin]

The fed gave 630 billion to the banks a few days ago
Paulson gave AIG 83 million a few days ago
Paulson is out of his appointed office in 4 months - his cronies on wall street have been slushing around credit default swaps for the past few years
a CDS is when someone (akin to Llyods of London) hedges a bet that someone will default on a loan and agrees to pay it if that happens. In return, the lendee pays the group making the promise- like an insurance policy - But those "guarantors" don't actually have the money to pay out if the debt actually turns bad. Why?
because much of that debt is based on the housing bubble that just burst and the loans going into default because new homeowners - who couldn't afford to buy the house they are in - have been piched by the high cost of fuel and can't amke their numerous payments - biggest of which is their ARM mortgage.
New York State and the FED are set to institute regulations and investigation into the unregulated CDS market in November.
Paulson's Wall Street cronies are panicked because the CDS's they are holding aren't worth the paper their written on (if there was any paper to begin with) there are approximately $56(?) trillion in CDS's right now - who is going to cover that?
Right now, they're looking to sweep it under the rug by bailing out these companies who lost their gambles and prolong the inevitable- giving CEO's and Paulson time to jump ship in their golden parachutes.
The free-market needs to be left alone so that legitimate lenders can go ahead and buy these assets for pennies on the dollar, cull the herd of the unscrupulous lenders who got the people into this mess in the first place.
In the meantime, what really needs to happen is to stop foreclosure proceedings and rewrite these bad loans so that consumers can retain theeir homes and keep the money flowing into those legitimate banks.

sorry this was so long.
Those of us who pay our bills and don't live on credit or beyond our means, should come out with a hit on our 401ks for the short term - long term we'll see a bounce back after the market goes through this natural correction process.
As I'm sure you can tell- I'd rather hold onto my share of the 700billion and use it to spend time at my DVC in WDW

 

[boettj]

okay here are a few things that bother me on this thread.

My DH is a union employee (He is in Law enforcement and just received the first decent contract in years before that his raises averaged to approximately 1.2% per year, so it isn't all unions.

Part of the problem in this country is the entitlement factor. We are not entitled to own homes and we are not all entitled to college education sorry but that is a fact.

I want to know if I can send the gov't my mortgage to pay. I am sorry but I am against bailing out mortgages for people who did not have the income to get these mortgages. The government should be going after the banks for this.

We don't own stock so this whole Wall Street problem does not effect my family much.

Also I wouldn't believe all I was hearing on the news because I heard something that the manufacturing sector is going up in this country for the first time in years.

Unfortunately I don't believe either candidate for president is qualified or has any ideas of how to get us out of this mess.

That being said we are able to afford to go to Disney next year and our DVC is paid for.

This is just my opinion for what little it is worth.

Yes sorry I lumped all unions together. There are still some unions that still work the way they were originally intended. Unfortunately in the case of law enforcement, they have been one of the unions that have been let out of the wage increases.

 

[kimberh]

60 plus% of American's are tied to Wallstreet (retirement plans). It just about affects all of us. Things are sure slowing down here. We are self employed, I had a P&L run yesterday, I could not hardly believe how much we were down from last year, 2007 was our best year. We have been in Business for 30 years. I have always believed in Saving first. I have taught my Family this. When we went to Disney, when my kids were small to teens, I gave them $15-$25.00 for the whole trip, it depended on how long we were staying. They decided they didn't want all those Mickey Bars, and Cokes. This was their first experiences with saving. The money they came home with was theirs to keep. It is truly time to get back to the basis of our roots.

I can't believe how many of my friends that have not saved anything for the future. They are really hurting right now. Mostly Realtors and Car salesman. When Credit dries up, the economy dries up with it. I just don't see WDW not being affected by it.

I believe we will come through this, it will take some time and work. It just burns me up that we are all in this situation in the first place. I pay my bills.

 

[boettj]

What burns me is that the 700 billion will mainly come from the middle class. On top of that, congress plans to put the proceeds of any sale into the lower class. Therefore, the middle class just continues to get abused. Where is this money coming from? They will have to raise taxes in order to come up with this money. In other words, this is one of the largest redistribution of money in the history of this country. We might as well throw in the towel and call ourselves a socialist society.

Also, I don't think that 700 billion will be the end. People seem to forget that congress already approved 300 billion for Housing Rescue Bill, HR-3221 which President Bush signed. Add to that the 85 million for AIG. So far we are looking at 301 billion spent. With a total for now of 1.1 Trillion. Sorry forgot to add the 15 to 20 billion for the bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-set-bail-out-fannie/story.aspx?guid={46D1439E-A2C4-418C-9BE0-09BE0B9EE60D}&dist=msr_7

 

[rantnnravin]

What burns me is that the 700 billion will mainly come from the middle class. On top of that, congress plans to put the proceeds of any sale into the lower class. Therefore, the middle class just continues to get abused. Where is this money coming from? They will have to raise taxes in order to come up with this money. In other words, this is one of the largest redistribution of money in the history of this country. We might as well throw in the towel and call ourselves a socialist society.

Also, I don't think that 700 billion will be the end. People seem to forget that congress already approved 300 billion for Housing Rescue Bill, HR-3221 which President Bush signed. Add to that the 85 million for AIG. So far we are looking at 301 billion spent. With a total for now of 1.1 Trillion. Sorry forgot to add the 15 to 20 billion for the bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-set-bail-out-fannie/story.aspx?guid={46D1439E-A2C4-418C-9BE0-09BE0B9EE60D}&dist=msr_7

yep,
just like i said above. I don't think a handout of $700B is the answer. There are ways to handle this. Giving bad investors their money back isn't it.

 

[DisFlan]

yep,
just like i said above. I don't think a handout of $700B is the answer. There are ways to handle this. Giving bad investors their money back isn't it.

I'm pretty sure some sort of "fix", bailout, whatever, is going to come from the government even if the current bill doesn't pass. I'm worried about what happens if it doesn't actually fix anything.


DisFlan

 

[bonnielynn]

WDW seems busy enough right now. I think they're looking ahead to what (worse) might be happening with the economy - both here and in the UK. People in discounted rooms with discounted tickets are better than empty rooms and fewer people in parks. We took advantage of the Bounce Back/free dining offer at SSR for next year while we were at BWV last week. It's not as good a discount as you are getting, but it's pretty good.

DisFlan

What is the bounce/back free dining option?

 

[bangzoom6877]

This is a great point. People need to get back to living within their means as well as savings. The government needs to support savings initiatives.



Thanks

Agree 100%. If people would stop spending well beyond their needs ("Oh, I just MUST have 5 big screen TVs in my house, brand new iPod, brand new iPhone, 10 trips to Disney, the owner's suite on my cruise just so I can come back and brag to all my friends that I stayed in the owner's suite on my cruise, and the $800 pair of shoes I bought at a bargain of $550, giving me $250 in 'found money' to spend elsewhere..."), and if people stopped using credit cards so much, and I do mean 'people' as a whole, then there would be no choice but to lower the price on many different things. But as far as I am concerned, and this is only my opinion, we will not see this happen in any of our lifetimes. Whether or not it will ever happen and whether or not this society will ever stop being a credit card culture, only time will tell. But again, I don't think I will live to see it even if it does happen.

 

[eliza61]

What is the bounce/back free dining option?

Bounce back and free dining are promotions that Disney has been running to fill the rooms.
With bounce back you make a reservation at a discounted rate while you are vacationing at the world.
Free dining is when you get the ddp free for your trip.
As with any thing Disney has an angle and you need to do the numbers. Usually free dining requires you to pay rack rate for your room.