I thought today I'd buy passes for my family through Undercover Tourist. I'm planning on getting MYW passes that we can use for one entrance, then immediately upgrade to APs.
Question 1: This is the best method for upgrading a discounted ticket, right? I use the ticket once so that it gains full gate value, THEN I exchange it. Right?
Question 2: The easiest thing to do is get a ticket that AT GATE PRICE does not exceed the cost of a new AP, correct?
Here are my calculations.
I'm assuming the new price of passes through Disney based on the current price and the average price increase shown on the ticket page here.
If I buy one adult DVC AP when I arrive in November - $414.29 (based on price quoted at DIS ticket page linked above)
Adult 6-day PH no exp CURRENT price (Undercover Tourist) $348.00
Adult 6-day PH no exp CURRENT price (Disney) $378.08
Adult 6-day PH no exp ASSUMED NEW price (Disney) $388
Adult NEW DVC AP price $414.29
So if I purchase a 6-day ticket from UT, I'll be $348 out-of-pocket. Because it is unused, the value of my ticket will increase to current gate price the day I use it (November), or $388.
I will then apply the $388 to the price of a DVC AP, paying $26.29. This increases my total out-of-pocket cost to $375.29.
**Total realized savings - $39
Since I have 2 adult APs and 1 child AP to purchase, I estimate I'll save $122 using this method.
So...is there some giant flaw in my calculations?
Question 1: This is the best method for upgrading a discounted ticket, right? I use the ticket once so that it gains full gate value, THEN I exchange it. Right?
Question 2: The easiest thing to do is get a ticket that AT GATE PRICE does not exceed the cost of a new AP, correct?
Here are my calculations.

I'm assuming the new price of passes through Disney based on the current price and the average price increase shown on the ticket page here.
If I buy one adult DVC AP when I arrive in November - $414.29 (based on price quoted at DIS ticket page linked above)
Adult 6-day PH no exp CURRENT price (Undercover Tourist) $348.00
Adult 6-day PH no exp CURRENT price (Disney) $378.08
Adult 6-day PH no exp ASSUMED NEW price (Disney) $388
Adult NEW DVC AP price $414.29
So if I purchase a 6-day ticket from UT, I'll be $348 out-of-pocket. Because it is unused, the value of my ticket will increase to current gate price the day I use it (November), or $388.
I will then apply the $388 to the price of a DVC AP, paying $26.29. This increases my total out-of-pocket cost to $375.29.
**Total realized savings - $39
Since I have 2 adult APs and 1 child AP to purchase, I estimate I'll save $122 using this method.

So...is there some giant flaw in my calculations?