Thoughts on Lowball Offer

[CastAStone]

IMO I think the brokers are part of the problem combined with some people’s unrealistic idea of a sale price. If brokers are telling people that in the past SSR sold for like $110 per point then some will stick to that price and maybe list higher and then come “down” to $110

The brokers are doing their job. They’re paid by the seller to maximize sale price, and they clearly believe that some clueless bloke will offer asking if they wait long enough.

Maybe they’re right! But people who can afford to wait for a clueless bloke are not the people who were ever going to bite on a lowball offer. You’re looking for people who are eagerly looking to sell because their life situation got worse. I agree with others here that most of them will want to delay selling until they have more clarity on the future and/or MFs are due, which likely won’t be for months.

Until then I see prices as likely to decline much slower than some of you see them declining, and deals like $75 loaded small contract OKW as unicorns rather than the market.

 

[ljlaurajane]

Late last year I bought a 160 point contract at SSR priced $102 it was loaded and I managed to rent the points for $19 so effectively I paid $83 as I didn’t pay dues on them.

if the contract is loaded with last years points then maybe you can offset some of the price by renting the extra points. That’s assuming you aren’t going to use them.

We thought of doing it this way, but I'd be really nervous about not being able to rent out any surplus points in the short so given closures and room availability (just my personal nervousness)

 

[EM Lawrence]

What would you all offer on this one? It’s listed at 143.
Poly Dec Use year 135 pts

December 2019 - 54 points December 2020 - 160 points December 2021 - 135 points

I’ve had similar experiences with Poly contracts. I’m assuming that many of them bought new, so paid 165 or higher, and likely financed the contracts. So they may not have as much wiggle room as say a BWV or OKW owner who bought their points long ago for a much lower price. That’s my theory anyway. I’ve given up lowballing Poly until the prices really do come down. I’m quite sure they will, by the way. All I see in the news is continued deterioration of the economy. That does not give me any joy, but I do think it will bring prices down across the board.

 

[stfxkid]

Just got a great deal on a Poly contract, I believe, I will share the details once the contract is signed.

 

[Drewferin]

Just got a great deal on a Poly contract, I believe, I will share the details once the contract is signed.

130ish pp??

 

[stfxkid]

130ish pp??

yes with favorable conditions

 

[DisMomKY]

I’ve had similar experiences with Poly contracts. I’m assuming that many of them bought new, so paid 165 or higher, and likely financed the contracts. So they may not have as much wiggle room as say a BWV or OKW owner who bought their points long ago for a much lower price. That’s my theory anyway. I’ve given up lowballing Poly until the prices really do come down. I’m quite sure they will, by the way. All I see in the news is continued deterioration of the economy. That does not give me any joy, but I do think it will bring prices down across the board.

The decline and stuck at 143 oh well

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

We purchased our three contracts during the 2009-2010 meltdown. The market was flooded with lots of options; I mean just tons and tons. It was a feeding frenzy!

While I think that there are a good number of contracts out there right now, it is not flooded yet. And some of the resale companies, have limited stock--such as OKW small contracts and such(which is why one reached out asking for DVC-ers to sell their points to boost inventory.)

I think in a month or two, we will have a plethora of options.

 

[BrianLo]

IMO I think the brokers are part of the problem combined with some people’s unrealistic idea of a sale price. If brokers are telling people that in the past SSR sold for like $110 per point then some will stick to that price and maybe list higher and then come “down” to $110

I think they also do a disservice by leaving the "offer accepted" contracts at the price they were listed for. As opposed to what they were inevitably negotiated down to. It artificially inflates buyer and seller expectations.

That said there is downward pressure. Yes that one 1200 point contract was huge, but 76$ sets a bold floor for SSR. Likewise a reasonable medium contract has been listed for 88$. The floor is being lowered and people will wake up to that over the coming months. I think we will see the locations that have a lot of inventory will drop quicker.

SSR is now an 80-something dollar price target. Telling people they should list their small contracts upwards of 30-40% above that ($110+) in a recession is poor advice.

 

[Drewferin]

Think some buys definitely don't want to negotiate their prices. Offered $65 for an Aulani list at $87. They countered at $95 which made me lmao... Guess they aren't wanting to counter back and forth.

 

[Mumof4mice]

I am tempted to make some lowball offers on an Aulani contract but truth be told there's something holding me back. It's almost like embarrassment or shame. My old Realtor when we bought our townhouse was offended a couple times when I put in a really low offer and tried to convince me it was being rude and a waist of time. One of those offers did eventually turn into a deal so ......... I am just curious how you all feel about it.
I just feel Aulani really should be priced where Vero and other offsite resorts are at. The huge maintenance fees and the really high point values are just so high. Anyway the market will decide as always.

Thanks
Noah

There's absolutely no need to feel embarrassed about lowballing. Any offer is an opportunity for the seller.

Prices are dropping and IMO won't reach the bottom for at least 12 months. If you want to buy on the way down, lowballing is required. Don't worry about the seller taking offense, or losing the "perfect contract". There will be plenty of other contracts on the market for you to move on to. The deal of the century happens once a month.

 

[stfxkid]

yes with favorable conditions

We just negotiated a fully Stripped 160 Point August use year at Poly for 130pp, can close 12/1/20 . Seller pays 2020 and estimated 2021 Dues. Seller Pays Buyers Closing Costs (excluding title insurance and lenders fees).

***Edited to reflect Aug use year not December ***

 

[Drewferin]

We just negotiated a fully Stripped 160 Point December use year at Poly for 130pp, can close 12/1/20 . Seller pays 2020 and estimated 2021 Dues. Seller Pays Buyers Closing Costs (excluding title insurance and lenders fees).

Thats an amazing deal!

 

[Noah_t]

Listening to us DVC owners we really need to beware of our confirmation bias. I dont actually think this because of my own cognitive bias issues but we could be heading for a very bad recession. That amazingly great deal on 300 points at your dream resort might really start stressing you out come dues time.

Any broker who's telling you the market is fine is probably grasping at straws or full of BS. DVC is a luxury product that will be the first thing people will try to sell to solve cash flow issues and I even suspect many people will just walk away when they are underwater on their loans.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Saw an 80 pt OKW for $85 loaded this morning DEC UY. If it were OCT I'd be all over it!

 

[Ehazelto05]

Saw an 80 pt OKW for $85 loaded this morning DEC UY. If it were OCT I'd be all over it!

I just saw that one and instantly made an offer. Let see what happens!

 

[Cyberc1978]

I just saw that one and instantly made an offer. Let see what happens!

have in mind when you are dealing with broker if one buyer offers asking before your offer then you won’t get the contract.

The same applies if you offers above asking then you still don’t get the contract if a buyers offers asking before your offer.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I just saw that one and instantly made an offer. Let see what happens!

Btw. Why make an offer when it’s priced this low.? I mean why not just buy it for asking?

 

[MICKIMINI]

I have been known to add .10 per point to be "over" asking. So $85.10 PP for that OKW...DH thinks I'm nuts but it works!

 

[CarolMN]

We just negotiated a fully Stripped 160 Point December use year at Poly for 130pp, can close 12/1/20 . Seller pays 2020 and estimated 2021 Dues. Seller Pays Buyers Closing Costs (excluding title insurance and lenders fees).

Thats an amazing deal!

Sounds like a seller in distress.

While I am happy for stfxkid, I also hope there aren't too many Members out there who will end up selling due to economic distress.