Third Wave is Here...

[NewYKRunner]

Ontario seems to be being hit hard with the variants, more people in ICU's now than any other point in this pandemic. I imagine we will end up in lockdown again sooner than later. Especially if people ignore advise not to gather for Easter. I am having to talk to kiddo about that, he was expecting to see my parents this weekend but I don't think it would be wise. I hope we'll be able to find something to keep us going/entertained.

Well, there is supposed to be an announcement for Ontario tomorrow.

There is hope, Canada is supposed to get a lot more Pfizer doses than originally expected over the next couple months. And yes, there are more daily cases, but the rate of deaths looks to be improving which is more important. That should be due to more at-risk populations getting vaccinated which should only increase over the next little bit.

 

[TommyJK]

And yes, there are more daily cases, but the rate of deaths looks to be improving which is more important.

Might not be so true quite yet in Ontario. Hospitalizations/ICU numbers trail cases, deaths trail hospitalizations.

If we have a look at the beginning of the year, Cases spiked the heaviest roughly between Jan 1-15. Subsequently, hopsitalizations/ICU was heaviests just a bit after that roughly Jan 9 - 25. Higher death #s then followed roughly Jan 15 - Feb 5th

So where we are at now is cases had started a significant incline again around March 8th (and continue to climb) and now following up hospitalizations started a sizable increase around March 18th. There is a strong chance that deaths are going to rise very soon (I really hope I'm wrong though).

 

[NewYKRunner]

There is a strong chance that deaths are going to rise very soon (I really hope I'm wrong though).

You're right, the next few weeks will tell.

 

[pigletto]

Might not be so true quite yet in Ontario. Hospitalizations/ICU numbers trail cases, deaths trail hospitalizations.

If we have a look at the beginning of the year, Cases spiked the heaviest roughly between Jan 1-15. Subsequently, hopsitalizations/ICU was heaviests just a bit after that roughly Jan 9 - 25. Higher death #s then followed roughly Jan 15 - Feb 5th

So where we are at now is cases had started a significant incline again around March 8th (and continue to climb) and now following up hospitalizations started a sizable increase around March 18th. There is a strong chance that deaths are going to rise very soon (I really hope I'm wrong though).

From what I have been reading our vaccinations are helping. We have higher hospitalizations but a lower death rate due to having vaccinated the most vulnerable populations. We’re now seeing younger people hospitalized but the fact that our geriatric community is protected , we may not see the rise in death like we did in the precious waves .

 

[OnceUponATime15]

News just breaking about tomorrow’s announcement by Doug Ford... The entire province of Ontario will be going back to the gray level closures in an “emergency break” to ensure that hospitals are not overwhelmed and can keep up with ICU pressures as cases climb quickly.
Gray level to begin Saturday at 12:01am and last for four weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377429632039981058

 

[mshanson3121]

News just breaking about tomorrow’s announcement by Doug Ford... The entire province of Ontario will be going back to the gray level closures in an “emergency break” to ensure that hospitals are not overwhelmed and can keep up with ICU pressures as cases climb quickly.
Gray level to begin Saturday at 12:01am and last for four weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377429632039981058

Not fun to go through but definitely necessary.

 

[wdwmom3]

Not fun to go through but definitely necessary.

I agree necessarily. But also a little annoying since not all parts of Ontario have increasing cases. And the areas with the big increase really never came out of lockdown. So not sure this will even help.

 

[Donald - my hero]

I'm waiting to see what the actual announcement from the ontario government has to say because if you read any of the sites it only looks like restaurants will be affected? Not even as tight as we were after Christmas, doesn't sound like it has any teeth if you ask me. Frustrating to me, either shut it all down or don't, but this won't help much at all.

here's a screenshot from the source above, which is identical to global and ctv

 

[wdwmom3]

I'm waiting to see what the actual announcement from the ontario government has to say because if you read any of the sites it only looks like restaurants will be affected? Not even as tight as we were after Christmas, doesn't sound like it has any teeth if you ask me. Frustrating to me, either shut it all down or don't, but this won't help much at all.

here's a screenshot from the source above, which is identical to global and ctv
View attachment 566254

Yep. We already saw the lockdown at Christmas wasn’t strict enough. So good plan, now that things are worse let’s do less . They need more like what they did last spring when almost everything got shut down. This half way approach is just going to make it take longer.

 

[Silvermist999]

I'm waiting to see what the actual announcement from the ontario government has to say because if you read any of the sites it only looks like restaurants will be affected? Not even as tight as we were after Christmas, doesn't sound like it has any teeth if you ask me. Frustrating to me, either shut it all down or don't, but this won't help much at all.

here's a screenshot from the source above, which is identical to global and ctv
View attachment 566254

Our school board emailed all families today indicating the possibility of a switch to 100% remote learning for all students as early as next week and for all students to bring home all personal belongings tomorrow before the long weekend. Which boards or schools this would affect is not known.

 

[SCCNJ]

My opinion is if they don't close schools it will be for nothing. I'm for a lockdown but I want it to be the last. A full hard lockdown that pushes the case count low enough to allow vaccine roll out to take hold. And vaccinate essential workers before opening up again.

 

[Iralyn]

Agreed!

My friend has a specialty retail store and she says that the 25% capacity is actually worse for her financially than a full closure as she has to pay for staff when very, very few customers will come in.

 

[mshanson3121]

I agree necessarily. But also a little annoying since not all parts of Ontario have increasing cases. And the areas with the big increase really never came out of lockdown. So not sure this will even help.

My guess is they're trying to prevent Easter gatherings province wide, so help prevent any additional spikes.

I kind of wish our province were doing that.

 

[wdwmom3]

My guess is they're trying to prevent Easter gatherings province wide, so help prevent any additional spikes.

I kind of wish our province were doing that.

I don’t think this will prevent gatherings. People have been told for months to not gather with people. But they are.

Basically all they are doing is shutting down in person dining, salons and gyms in areas that aren’t the ones spiking. It’s all for show.

 

[hdrolfe]

Ontario seems to be unclear on schools right now, I think they should be remote for a week, then they have their spring break, then see where things stand. From what I have read cases in schools are increasing? Along with all the others I guess. I am also with the others who are getting frustrated. I am glad my dog got to the groomers a couple weeks ago and should be good until June. I don't know what the solution is, but I know people are getting burnt out, if they weren't already, and this see saw doesn't seem to be as effective as it was in the beginning.

 

[wdwmom3]

Ontario seems to be unclear on schools right now, I think they should be remote for a week, then they have their spring break, then see where things stand. From what I have read cases in schools are increasing? Along with all the others I guess. I am also with the others who are getting frustrated. I am glad my dog got to the groomers a couple weeks ago and should be good until June. I don't know what the solution is, but I know people are getting burnt out, if they weren't already, and this see saw doesn't seem to be as effective as it was in the beginning.

This time last year they locked down pretty much everything. They closed things like non essential manufacturing, construction etc. I remember the roads were empty. That’s why it worked.

 

[hdrolfe]

This time last year they locked down pretty much everything. They closed things like non essential manufacturing, construction etc. I remember the roads were empty. That’s why it worked.

that is the one thing I remember, the empty roads! It hasn't been like that since those first few weeks.

 

[mshanson3121]

that is the one thing I remember, the empty roads! It hasn't been like that since those first few weeks.

The empty roads and skies. I remember how quiet it was. It was great honestly.

 

[AdamsMum]

The empty roads and skies. I remember how quiet it was. It was great honestly.

As an essential worker, I loved the empty roads-a bit eerie but it was great. Fortunately I'm close to retirement so I probably won't have to go back to regular Toronto rush hour traffic.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

When is a lockdown not a lockdown... when you do it half way & expect full results.

I’ve been off work this week and just received a text from my supervisor to let me know that a sweet 3 year old in one of the other cohorts has a laboratory confirmed case of covid 19 - his entire family does... how did they get it? Well... the older kids contracted it in school and brought it home. Both parents, a grandparent, and 3 siblings all positive for covid19. The case numbers in that school warranted outbreak status and it was noted as being in outbreak - but the school stayed open with 2 or 3 classes isolating at home.

Why do I bring this into the thread.. because as long as schools remain open during a shutdown/lockdown (yet tbd), spread that originates in the classroom which is community spread by definition - is very much a real hinderance to getting our numbers down.

The virus doesn’t discriminate, it’s goal is to find a host then spread.

edited to add...

As per our local community newspaper the above school in question has just become the seventh school in the Region to close and shut down. The outbreak there is now deemed to be school wide and also in the childcare centre in the school.