Here was our experience.
Bought:
75 direct at SSR @ 160 PP & 125 resale at SSR @ 99 PP.
Background
Family of 4. We are in our early 30's. Kids are young. SO is a teacher, so we only really travel in the summer. Part of the
Where
The reason
DVC was attractive to us was to experience different resorts. We don't want to do the same vacation over and over for 35 years. Between going to new resorts every year, and the plethora of activities available in WDW (as well as the rest of Orlando), we were comfortable with travelling to this area year over year without getting tired of it. We will also rent out points once in awhile when we decided to do something different.
As we want to go to a new resort every year, we saw no value in the 11 month booking window as in a worst case scenario, we are fine at SSR. Given that we travel in the summer (low priority booking for DVC), and bought enough points for the better view studios, the risk was worth it.
Direct vs Indirect
As mentioned above, we want to go to as many resorts as possible. As we only just bought, we knew we needed some direct points to book Riviera, Reflections, and any other new resorts. With borrowing and banking, we could easily do a week in a preferred studio at a new resort once every 3 years with 75 points. The difference in cost for these 75 points direct was about $4500
75 points also unlocked the blue card. We travel in the summer so we plan on going August in one year, then July the next year. This allows us to get two trips on one annual pass. With the DVC Gold pass option and a family of 4, thats a savings of $1700 upfront for our first two trips. So even if the gold pass deal disappears, our net difference to get access to the new resorts is down to $2,800 spread out over 35 years.
How many points
Bought enough points so that we can easily go atleast 3 out of 4 years, and stay in studios with premium views. While the premium view isn't necessary for our enjoyment, it allows a greater chance at the 7 month booking window of getting the resort we choose.