Theme Park attendance estimates released - Record 112 Million Visit Disney Parks

[MasterShake]

I'm wondering where Another Voice is on this thread. I know that just a couple of weeks ago AV was bashing Disney (as usual) and citing the fact that they had yet to break records set in 2001. He used that fact as an indication that Disney World was on the decline on the "New Four Seasons Timeshare on Disney Property and Value Oriented West Side" thread. I agreed with some of what AV said on this thread, but I got to say that MassJester was right about the attendance records.

 

[DancingBear]

I understand that A-Vs mostly off-line for a while. The point at the time was that it was taking WDW a long time to recover from pre-9/11 numbers compared to other vacation destinations. That point may still stand. Another point was that Disney has had to offer a lot of discounts to generate WDW attendance, and sure enough the numbers from the SEC filings show that although Parks Revenue has increased substantially since pre-9/11, Parks Operating Income has actually declined.

 

[raidermatt]

AV is unavailable for awhile.

But yes, the point still stands. Other vacation destinations reached those pre 9/11 levels as early as 2003/2004. WDW reaching them in 2006 doesn't invalidate the point at all.

 

[MasterShake]

I understand that A-Vs mostly off-line for a while. The point at the time was that it was taking WDW a long time to recover from pre-9/11 numbers compared to other vacation destinations. That point may still stand. Another point was that Disney has had to offer a lot of discounts to generate WDW attendance, and sure enough the numbers from the SEC filings show that although Parks Revenue has increased substantially since pre-9/11, Parks Operating Income has actually declined.

He had a lot of points in that discussion and as I stated some I think were valid. However, he clearly stated several times that attendance was down and the root cause was the poor product/service that Disney was putting out. Here are a few quotes that I am referring too:

Originally Posted by Another Voice
WDW has never had a slump in attendance as long and deep as what it is suffering today. It’s direct competition – Hawaii. National Parks, other destinations – are now beating all time records. Disney has yet to even come close to a “9/11 recovery”.

Originally Posted by Another Voice
But the Company is trying to make "Disney" a comfort brand for the overly indebted middle class. Slap the Mouse on it, it must mean "quality". The people aren't buying it.

Originally Posted by Another Voice
But too many people still remember when Disney meant "magic" as more than a marketing slogan. That's what people really want in their lives. All the joint ventures, all the marketing, all the ferns on the Internet aren't going to change that. Millions don't find that at WDW anymore, and the trend is growing.

Originally Posted by Another Voice
It's simple - if Disney was hitting record attendance you'd hear it trumpeted at each and every report, news conference and rope drop announcement the company made. Disney is a business - you know. Those kinds of things not only help the stock price, but they stroke the management's ego to no end. Yes, being up 6.5% from a previous low number is wonderful - but the company has never said it's even fully recovered to 9/11 levels, let alone peak attendance in 2000.

And where are your facts and figures that everything is so happy. Where are your record crowds, where are your higher than ever occupancy rates.

Let's hear some figures from you to back up your statements*.

AV seems very knowledgeable about Disney, but I don't think AV is entirely objective. Every post I read from AV and several others on these boards is all negative. Some things I agree with, however I do not think things are as bad as AV always portray them to be.

 

[MasterShake]

Double Post

 

[EUROPACL]

AV seems very knowledgeable about Disney, but I don't think AV is entirely objective. Every post I read from AV and several others on these boards is all negative. Some things I agree with, however I do not think things are as bad as AV always portray them to be.

Read AV comments again...then compare them to numbers that nobody claims as being true...No even Disney. There is a reason why Disney never releases attendance fingures...and this post is the exact reason why. He said she said and nobody can point to real numbers. As AV has pointed out you have only to look at what Disney is doing to get a clear picture of attendance.

 

[raidermatt]

Good point. We do tend to take these numbers as gospel, but they are only third party estimates, and we have no idea what goes on behind the scenes.

For the sake of discussion, I'm willing to use them because it's all we have, but they very well could be nowhere near the truth.

After all, Pop still sits unfinished, the north garden wings were torn down, AKL is giving rooms up for DVC, and free dining continues to pop up.

It can't be all moonlight and roses.

 

[MasterShake]

Good point. We do tend to take these numbers as gospel, but they are only third party estimates, and we have no idea what goes on behind the scenes.

For the sake of discussion, I'm willing to use them because it's all we have, but they very well could be nowhere near the truth.

After all, Pop still sits unfinished, the north garden wings were torn down, AKL is giving rooms up for DVC, and free dining continues to pop up.

It can't be all moonlight and roses.

Ok, but a third party company making educated guesses is probably a better indication of park attendance then a few individuals’ personal opinions. Also, if these numbers are untrustworthy, why was it ok for AV to compare park attendance from 2000 to now?

Pop Century was announced in 1999 and the Hotel opened in 2003. A lot happened with the economy during that period of time that may have played a role in Disney’s decision to leave the resort incomplete.

 

[YoHo]

Pop Century never completely opened, because Disney's attendence Tanked...So much that they closed other existing resorts to reduce costs.

Listen, others have said, but I'll say it again, Their Attendence since 2000 is almost flat. It's flat because in 2001 it declined and that's prior to 9/11. They've been struggling more then other destinations.
And as DB pointed out their revenue is down.

So in 2000, Disney had 43 million people go to WDW with a Revenue per guest of X.
In 2006 they also had about 43 million people go to WDW with aRevenue per guest of Y.
Y<X that means Disney is doing worse even if they recovered the raw number of people.

Disney is getting a lot less money from every person that walks through the door despite ticket increases. Because they're giving the food away for free and they're giving the rooms away below rack rate and they're converting everyone to DVC which has it appears lower margins for Disney.

This is not a sign of health.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

For the second time in recent memory I say very good Yoho. That was to the point and accurate.

 

[SoCalKDG]

DL opens 1-2 hours earlier then DCA, thus this skews the numbers concerning the two parks more dramatically then anything else.

 

[MasterShake]

Pop Century never completely opened, because Disney's attendence Tanked...So much that they closed other existing resorts to reduce costs.

Listen, others have said, but I'll say it again, Their Attendence since 2000 is almost flat. It's flat because in 2001 it declined and that's prior to 9/11. They've been struggling more then other destinations.
And as DB pointed out their revenue is down.

So in 2000, Disney had 43 million people go to WDW with a Revenue per guest of X.
In 2006 they also had about 43 million people go to WDW with aRevenue per guest of Y.
Y<X that means Disney is doing worse even if they recovered the raw number of people.

Disney is getting a lot less money from every person that walks through the door despite ticket increases. Because they're giving the food away for free and they're giving the rooms away below rack rate and they're converting everyone to DVC which has it appears lower margins for Disney.

This is not a sign of health.

Pop Century probably was not finished due to attendance, but I do not think it was because of the parks direction. It was probably 9/11 and the economy that caused attendance problems.

Disney is not struggling more then other theme Parks. US/IOA had a million less guests in 2006 then it did in 2001. I would say they are the ones suffering.

While it's possible Disney is making less per customer, I don't see how you can say it as fact. You used X and Y in place of actual figures. If there is actual data on this, then please post it. Without these figures how can you say with any certainty that Disney is making less money?

 

[MasterShake]

For the second time in recent memory I say very good Yoho. That was to the point and accurate.

Wow, do you have actual figures that help to prove his points or are you just his "yes" man?

 

[cristen]

or are you just his "yes" man?

LOL!!


This board is quite funny.

 

[SoCalKDG]

So in 2000, Disney had 43 million people go to WDW with a Revenue per guest of X.
In 2006 they also had about 43 million people go to WDW with aRevenue per guest of Y.
Y<X that means Disney is doing worse even if they recovered the raw number of people.

Disney is getting a lot less money from every person that walks through the door despite ticket increases. Because they're giving the food away for free and they're giving the rooms away below rack rate and they're converting everyone to DVC which has it appears lower margins for Disney.

You going to show financial statements showing Y < X or do we just believe the word of Yoho? I'm pretty sure the financials will show the opposite, but since you brought it up I'll let you find the info for guest spending.

 

[DancingBear]

Duplicating my post from the Four Seasons thread:

Here's some interesting figures (sources are the 2000 and 2006 10-Ks):

2000 Parks and Resorts Revenue: $6.8 billion
2006 Parks and Resorts Revenue: $9.9 billion

2000 Parks and Resorts Operating Income: $1.62 billion
2006 Parks and Resorts Operating Income: $1.53 billion.

So, MJ is correct that revenues have increased. But it looks like costs have increased at a much greater rate.

 

[SoCalKDG]

And as DB pointed out their revenue is down.

So in 2000, Disney had 43 million people go to WDW with a Revenue per guest of X.
In 2006 they also had about 43 million people go to WDW with aRevenue per guest of Y.
Y<X that means Disney is doing worse even if they recovered the raw number of people.

Disney is getting a lot less money from every person that walks through the door despite ticket increases. Because they're giving the food away for free and they're giving the rooms away below rack rate and they're converting everyone to DVC which has it appears lower margins for Disney.

Looks like Dancing Bear is stating the opposite, that revenue is up. They are getting more money per guest.

 

[DancingBear]

I don't know how that revenue figure works on a per-guest basis, but I thought having an actual decline in Operating Income during a period that revenues increased nearly 46% is really striking.

(BTW, these are Company-wide Parks and Resorts figures, so they include the big rise at Disneyland for the 50th, and Hong Kong revenue. In fact, the 2006 FY Operating Income figure is a 30% increase over FY 2005).

 

[MasterShake]

The above figures seem to show that Disney is making more money and attendance is increasing. I'm sure they have a lot of room for improvement, but I would have to disagree that their current direction is dooming the parks.

 

[DancingBear]

More interesting numbers, this time the WDW "per room spending" figure (which they've only provided in detail starting with the '03 10-K):

'03, $202
'04, $198
'05, $199
'06, $211

So '06 looks like it was a somewhat decent year (6.5% increase), but why did per room revenue actually decline in '04 and '05?