The VGF 2 pricing thread

[BWV Dreamin]

If you buy an audi, would you hesitate if they told you that when you sell it, 90% of the features would be removed?

Resale restrictions are very bad for direct sales in any sectors. Very few people are coming in dropping $30k plus without wondering about the future.

Yes because there is no metric to say where sales would have been if they didn't have restrictions. I was one sale they didn't get because of them. I'm sure there are many others.

Myself as well. If the restrictions had no affect on the product, they would have continued it with VGF. Maybe because it’s part of the same association they couldn’t. But what about future resorts? It creates a divide and degrades the “ club” model.

 

[rubybutt]

If you buy an audi, would you hesitate if they told you that when you sell it, 90% of the features would be removed?

Resale restrictions are very bad for direct sales in any sectors. Very few people are coming in dropping $30k plus without wondering about the future.

Tesla already does that with full self driving. If they buy back the car they strip it off and make the new owner rebuy it.

 

[Einstein509]

But it would insinuate that VGF is superior to RIV.

Because it is.....

All the sales person has to mention ( and they should) is VGF2 comes with no restrictions ( if you want to make all else equal). That right there makes VGF2 a more superior product.

Restrictions are one of the main reasons I won't buy Riviera.

 

[Nabas]

If you buy an audi, would you hesitate if they told you that when you sell it, 90% of the features would be removed?

Resale restrictions are very bad for direct sales in any sectors. Very few people are coming in dropping $30k plus without wondering about the future.

Actual sales data from DVC Resale Market does not support what you suggest. RIV resales are doing extremely well compares to other DVC resorts.

 

[DonMacGregor]

If you try to sell that Audi in 7 or 8 years, you’re going to get far less than what you paid for it.

I think the point being made isn’t the difference in value between a 7 year old Audi and a new one, as we all know the car will depreciate, but rather the difference in value between a 7 year car with full options and accessories, versus that exact same 7 year old car with with all of those options and accessories removed.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Actual sales data from DVC Resale Market does not support what you suggest. RIV resales are doing extremely well compares to other DVC resorts.

View attachment 646887

Not really an accurate reflection of VGF sales as they were sold out ( not in active sales) and doesn’t account for those that would have purchased but couldn’t. Not apples to apples comparison.

 

[Sandisw]

Yes because there is no metric to say where sales would have been if they didn't have restrictions. I was one sale they didn't get because of them. I'm sure there are many others.

Except sales for the three months after RIV opened but before the shut down were some of the highest monthly sales for any resort.

I agree we will never know how restrictions truly impacted the resort, it sold really well prior to the shut down for being such a different product.

I just do not believe that the average DVC buyer knows or thinks about resale value.

And, to be fair, the resale value of RIV right now is doing pretty well. Granted, not many have been sold, but if a person is concerned, thr current data supports it’s not a huge loss over what they’d be looking at for VGF..and that is all they have right now.

None of us know what will happen in the future as many of us never imagined it would sell for what it has.

Think of the direct buyer. Pay $255 for VGF, knowing the resale market is currently selling…not asking…around $180…losing $75/point.

Or, buying RIV at $207 and selling around $140/point…losing $67/point. Pretty much a wash from a sale perspective for the guide to share.

If DVDs goal is to increase overall sales, then pricing the resorts close will do that…and, IMO, actually give them more data to the impact of restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

Myself as well. If the restrictions had no affect on the product, they would have continued it with VGF. Maybe because it’s part of the same association they couldn’t. But what about future resorts? It creates a divide and degrades the “ club” model.

IMO, they chose to add it to the current association because it was easier and faster to get it up and running vs. making it a brand new association that did not have trading rights into the larger units at the current VGF.

As long at it was the same association, I don’t think they could add those restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

Because it is.....


Restrictions are one of the main reasons I won't buy Riviera.

But saying it is superior is an opinion and not a fact. But, from the sale perspective, they need to both be superior products that can easily be sold to the buyer depending on that persons travel patterns.

I personally think RIV is a much better resort than VGF…and pretty much try to stay at the two every trip…I would have the same thought that you can’t sell two resorts at the same time and have the price difference huge IF the goal is to actually sell both of them.

 

[Nabas]

Not really an accurate reflection of VGF sales as they were sold out (not in active sales) and doesn’t account for those that would have purchased but couldn’t. Not apples to apples comparison.

The chart is an extremely good reflection of the market since it is actual sales data. Once Disney classifies RIV as "sold out", Disney is sure to raise RIV's direct price and more RIV buyers will be forced onto the resale market, increasing the resale cost. This has been the pattern for all previous DVC sales.

Sorting by absolute price, you'll see a clear pattern: location is king.

The lone Disneyland DVC stands heads and shoulders above the rest. This is then followed by the 3 Monorail DVCs. CCV, which is close to MK, follows the 3 Monorail DVCs.

Somewhere in the middle are the 3 DHS/Epcot resorts: BCV, RIV, and BWV.

AKV, SSR, and OKW, which are perceived as being farther from the parks, are closer to the bottom. While the 3 DVC resorts not associated with any theme park (Aulani, HHI, VB) are at the bottom.

Only BRV deviates from this pattern. BRV is co-located with CCV but has only 20 years left on its contract, compared to CCV's 46 years.

Again, when it comes to DVC resales, location is king.



(Chart updated to include "End Date" column.)

 

[Sandisw]

Not really an accurate reflection of VGF sales as they were sold out ( not in active sales) and doesn’t account for those that would have purchased but couldn’t. Not apples to apples comparison.

But this still supports there is a market for RIV resale right now.

So, when choosing between the two resorts, the direct buyer may not be willing to spend a ton more for VGF simply because it comes without restrictions which play no role in that buyers use of the product. .

 

[DVCsloth]

I tend to think VGF and Riviera are pretty close. Riviera is probably #3 for me. If I were to add on at either VGF or Riviera right now I would probably choose Riviera because of the VGF2 imbalance created by the Studio Only VGF2. I am interested in adding on a small number of direct points, but it will most likely be CCV since I already own there. I like the way the Villas are a separate building and being located next to GF hotel with all the amenities really make it a very special resort, but we also feel that way about CCV.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The chart is an extremely good reflection of the market since it is actual sales data. Once Disney classifies RIV as "sold out", Disney is sure to raise RIV's direct price and more RIV buyers will be forced onto the resale market, increasing the resale cost. This has been the pattern for all previous DVC sales.

Sorting by absolute price, you'll see a clear pattern: location is king.

The lone Disneyland DVC stands heads and shoulders above the rest. This is then followed by the 3 Monorail DVCs. CCV, which is close to MK, follows the 3 Monorail DVCs.

Somewhere in the middle are the 3 DHS/Epcot resorts: BCV, RIV, and BWV.

AKV, SSR, and OKW, which are perceived as being farther from the parks, are closer to the bottom. While the 3 DVC resorts not associated with any theme park (Aulani, HHI, VB) are at the bottom.

Only BRV deviates from this pattern. BRV is co-located with CCV but has only 20 years left on its contract, compared to CCV's 46 years.

Again, when it comes to DVC resales, location is king.

View attachment 646900

So apologies, I miss read the chart to be direct sales and not resales data. Location, location, location. Has been the real estate mantra for decades.

 

[BeachClub2014]

If you buy an audi, would you hesitate if they told you that when you sell it, 90% of the features would be removed?

Resale restrictions are very bad for direct sales in any sectors. Very few people are coming in dropping $30k plus without wondering about the future.

I am one of the very few then, having recently purchased RIV direct. We've been in and around DVC for many years and have a pretty good handle on how it works and the restrictions on any potential resale don't concern me at all.

 

[SusieQ93]

I think the point being made isn’t the difference in value between a 7 year old Audi and a new one, as we all know the car will depreciate, but rather the difference in value between a 7 year car with full options and accessories, versus that exact same 7 year old car with with all of those options and accessories removed.

My main point is just like cars are not a good investment, neither is DVC. If you’re looking to invest, you can do a lot better with $30k than DVC.

As Nabas points out and as my post mentioned, there is a market for DVC resale for Riviera and the pp price is higher than most other resorts which have fewer restrictions (all resale has restrictions now, as you can’t use points from the original 14 properties at new properties). You also do not get a blue card with resale, so no matter which property you buy direct, not all benefits/features will be available to resale.

Those purchasing resale have decided that the discounted price of resale offsets the restrictions for them. But again, resale should be looked at as an out if financially you cannot afford to keep your contract, you die and your heirs wish to sell, etc. it’s not an investment. Most time shares have zero resale value so the fact that DVC has a strong resale market sets it apart.

 

[Ruttangel]

I was actually a doomsayer about RIV resale but it is out performing forecasts.
Whether this is because of small inventory, who knows? Maybe it’s just because SSR/AKV/OKW now sitting around $130 and not the $100 they were at when RIV opened
Maybe we underestimate the buyers that are

• Not aware that resale restrictions are at RIV only
• Resale post 2019 owners who want a RIV contract
• RIV owners adding on at lower price

Will this all change when RIV is sold out or when new DVC properties come online?
Possibly, but I am surprised it’s not sitting around $140 at most

 

[CarolMN]

@Nabas, thanks for the chart.

IMO, it suggests resale prices for VGF will decrease significantly if the opening price for VGF2 direct is the same as Riviera. At $210 pp, I'd be bidding $155-$160 for resale. It will be interesting to see how quickly we see the change.

 

[Nabas]

@Nabas, thanks for the chart.

IMO, it suggests resale prices for VGF will decrease significantly if the opening price for VGF2 direct is the same as Riviera. At $210 pp, I'd be bidding $155-$160 for resale. It will be interesting to see how quickly we see the change.

With Poly resale at $173pp and BLT $169pp, any VGF resale price below about $175pp is going to have a ripple effect throughout all DVC resales.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Because it is.....


Restrictions are one of the main reasons I won't buy Riviera.

Ill agree that VGF is superior to RIV. But that’s just our opinion.
And I can understand why people don’t buy RIV because of the restrictions but to think this perspective occurs frequently… the direct sales say otherwise.

My opinion only… restrictions are here to stay. It’s Disney’s way of disrupting the resale market and it’s working. The data speaks for itself.

 

[davidl81]

Ill agree that VGF is superior to RIV. But that’s just our opinion.
And I can understand why people don’t buy RIV because of the restrictions but to think this perspective occurs frequently… the direct sales say otherwise.

My opinion only… restrictions are here to stay. It’s Disney’s way of disrupting the resale market and it’s working. The data speaks for itself.

Oh yeah, restrictions are not going away on actual new resorts. They are a long term play.