The VGF 2 pricing thread

[HIRyeDVC]

┏┓
┃┃╱╲ in
┃╱╱╲╲ this
╱╱╭╮╲╲house
▔▏┗┛▕▔ we
╱▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔╲
╱╱┏┳┓╭╮┏┳┓ ╲╲
▔▏┗┻┛┃┃┗┻┛▕▔

(•_•)
<) )╯ buy
/ \
(•_•)
\( (> the
/ \
(•_•)
<) )╯ dip!
/ \

That's a meme-on-a-meme for the kids in the back. Meme-ception if you will.

How long did it take you to type that?! Impressive. And yes, I bought the dip yesterday.

 

[Wedgeout]

Your Addonitis fogs reality so none this other stuff matters. Release the Price!

 

[nuhusky123]

Price aside, if gfv2 is successful I’d expect more hotel room conversions in the future vs new resorts

yc being one I hope for

 

[Lunchbox66]

Yes. A correction is different from a crash. And I think Disney is no longer targeting “average” Americans as evidenced by all the price increases. There are a lot of young households out there with lots of money or enough to swing it through financing.

I agree with not targeting "average" Americans as much. On a podcast I was listening to the point was made that Disney may benefit more from targeting upper level income individuals. If you get one family that pays cash for a deluxe room (especially larger than a studio), eats at table service and fine dining, and buys a lot of souveniers they could pay more than 3 very budgeted families while reducing crowd sizes.

 

[jacec]

People are purchasing VGF resale, smaller contracts than that, for less per point. It is too high IMO. Have you looked at the ROFR thread where people post what they are currently under contract for or recently closed on? Look thru there. And it's not crazy to offer much less per point. They may say no but they may say yes.

Thanks agree.

This seller is valuing the banked points too high.
Going hold and see what the Mouse has instore for direct points, and what the new inventory may do to resale. I'm not in a hurry. Either way , I'm going to have try my luck at this point for the 7 month window to attempt New Years 2023 rez at VGF.

 

[Lorana]

I really thought "Reflections" would be our in.

I'm with you there, at least from the perspective that I was chomping at the bit to buy there. I'm still not over the fact that it's cancelled. Bring back Reflections!

 

[Lorana]

You own everywhere.

Ha ha ha! Not yet! But we DO own at EVERY "heavily themed" resort you mentioned. And of the two not-heavily-themed, we own RIV for Epcot/HS access and SSR for SAP... and the "heavily themed" aspect of the Treehouse Villas. ;-)

 

[nuhusky123]

I'm with you there, at least from the perspective that I was chomping at the bit to buy there. I'm still not over the fact that it's cancelled. Bring back Reflections!

I think the standalone new resort model is on the back burner unfortunately. Expect more hotel conversions

 

[Nabas]

I think the standalone new resort model is on the back burner unfortunately. Expect more hotel conversions

I expect Disney will add 2 to 4 more DVC resorts between about 2026 to 2038.

If they have a new DVC opening in about 2038, they should be able to milk that out until 2042, when Disney starts re-acquiring points from OKW, VB, HHI, and BWV.

After that, I just don’t see Disney building new DVC resorts since they’ll have a steady and predictable stream of points at existing resorts that they will be able to sell again.

Relating this back to VGF2, VGF2 and RIV should give DVD enough points to sell for several years, maybe 2026 or 2027? So it would surprising if DVD opens another DVC resort before then.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I expect Disney will add 2 to 4 more DVC resorts between about 2026 to 2038.

If they have a new DVC opening in about 2038, they should be able to milk that out until 2042, when Disney starts re-acquiring points from OKW, VB, HHI, and BWV.

After that, I just don’t see Disney building new DVC resorts since they’ll have a steady and predictable stream of points at existing resorts that they will be able to sell again.

Relating this back to VGF2, VGF2 and RIV should give DVD enough points to sell for several years, maybe 2026 or 2027? So it would surprising if DVD opens another DVC resort before then.

Don’t forget about BCV and DLT!

 

[nuhusky123]

I expect Disney will add 2 to 4 more DVC resorts between about 2026 to 2038.

If they have a new DVC opening in about 2038, they should be able to milk that out until 2042, when Disney starts re-acquiring points from OKW, VB, HHI, and BWV.

After that, I just don’t see Disney building new DVC resorts since they’ll have a steady and predictable stream of points at existing resorts that they will be able to sell again.

Relating this back to VGF2, VGF2 and RIV should give DVD enough points to sell for several years, maybe 2026 or 2027? So it would surprising if DVD opens another DVC resort before then.

Question is will the build new buildings or convert hotels, I think the next one at the very least will be another hotel conversion

 

[RamblinWreck]

Price aside, if gfv2 is successful I’d expect more hotel room conversions in the future vs new resorts

yc being one I hope for

At some point they have to stop, right?

Once all those 2040 contracts end they’re going to have a ton of inventory to try to move.

 

[rubybutt]

Thoughts on this groups POV On a VGF1 resale contract now? I am looking at final decision on a 250 point December UY contract that has DEC21 351 pts, of which 101 are banked from DEC 2020 and full 250 2022 points available. Seller wants $203pp

I currently own AUL & SSR direct contracts with Dec UY.

Really want to be able to book 2BR VGF for post Christmas which is hard to do at 7 months.

wait. Anything over 160 pp, especially a large contract would be foolish to buy resale right now.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

At some point they have to stop, right?

Once all those 2040 contracts end they’re going to have a ton of inventory to try to move.

Why would they stop?

It’s not that many points. They’re probably gonna sell Hilton and Vero; Boulder Ridge and Beach Club are small (I imagine Beach Club Villas will be torn down and they will do something a little different over there), and Old Key West they’re stuck with until 2057 so they will be figuring out ways to mitigate that point glut ahead of time.

Boardwalk is the big one. Are they going to tack another 50 years onto that things life? It’s an interesting question.

 

[nuhusky123]

Why would they stop?

It’s not that many points. They’re probably gonna sell Hilton and Vero; Boulder Ridge and Beach Club are small (I imagine Beach Club Villas will be torn down and they will do something a little different over there), and Old Key West they’re stuck with until 2057 so they will be figuring out ways to mitigate that point glut ahead of time.

Boardwalk is the big one. Are they going to tack another 50 years onto that things life? It’s an interesting question.

Why would they tear down beach club?

 

[RamblinWreck]

Why would they stop?

It’s not that many points. They’re probably gonna sell Hilton and Vero; Boulder Ridge and Beach Club are small (I imagine Beach Club Villas will be torn down and they will do something a little different over there), and Old Key West they’re stuck with until 2057 so they will be figuring out ways to mitigate that point glut ahead of time.

Boardwalk is the big one. Are they going to tack another 50 years onto that things life? It’s an interesting question.

Why wouldn’t they? Just update the thing and sell it all over again.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Why would they tear down beach club?

I don't think they will tear down BCV. It's such a tiny wing, it will either get absorbed with the cash side or they'll renovate it and resell new 50 year contracts.

 

[DisneyMom_3]

Price aside, if gfv2 is successful I’d expect more hotel room conversions in the future vs new resorts

yc being one I hope for

I would love YC to be next!

 

[rubybutt]

But where did you buy direct?

I can understand "I want to be able to stay at Riviera at some point, so I'm going to buy Grand/Saratoga/Boardwalk direct instead of resale." But I don't understand "I want to be able to stay at Riviera at some point, so I'm going to buy Riviera direct instead of resale" if you're concerned about restrictions, because you're backing yourself into those restrictions.

Most Restrictive
Riviera resale
Riviera direct
O14 resale
O14 direct
Least Restrictive

This makes no sense. All direct are least restrictive.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Why would they tear down beach club?

They took almost 40 year old Poly buildings and refurbed and sold them for another 50 years. And the Pine Key building must be at wind 30 years old? Getting refurbed and sold for another 42 years which is approx what BCV will have on it when it expires.